Type of Supercell = Probability of large hail?

[Jerry Prsha]

I've been fortunate to avoid the really big stuff up to now but, will a HP Supercell necessarily, because of the inherent moisture create larger hail?

 

[Danny Neal]

It all depends on updraft strength. I have seen some LP's dropping monster (4+ in) hail or a classic supercell dropping no larger than dimes.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, I really think it depends more upon conditions than the type of supercell. LP's are notorious for producing very large hail, but again the circumstances play the most important part I think. Obviously, the larger the CAPE, the better chance there is for large hail. The freezing level also plays a role, but CAPE is most important.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

I've been fortunate to avoid the really big stuff up to now but, will a HP Supercell necessarily, because of the inherent moisture create larger hail?

No. The amount of liquid precipitation a supercell produces is somewhat irrelevant to giant hail formation.

SPC forecasters will be the first to tell you hail size forecasting is a WAG (Wild Ass Guess). In general, only a supercell thunderstorm can produce giant (i.e., larger than golfball) hail. After that, it gets murky.

In general, large hailstones require a large region of supercooled liquid water (SLW). A wide updraft or a series of updrafts will allow the hail embryo to remain in the SLW growth region for an extended time. Strong updraft velocities in the SLW region are thought to be favorable for large hail growth. Many scientists believe microphysics could play a significant role, but we don't understand these mechanisms much at all.