Tropical Storm ZETA

[Jeff Snyder]

This is so very fitting for the incredible season that has been 2005... But we now have Tropical Storm Zeta! It won't pose a threat to much, but it's still quite astonishing given that we're about a month out of season. It's not uncommon for tropical activity to persist or maybe develop a week or two after the season, but I've never seen tropical cyclones in the Atlantic two days before the end of the year!

Originally posted by NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

This is so very fitting for the incredible season that has been 2005... But we now have Tropical Storm Zeta! It won't pose a threat to much, but it's still quite astonishing given that we're about a month out of season. It's not uncommon for tropical activity to persist or maybe develop a week or two after the season, but I've never seen tropical cyclones in the Atlantic two days before the end of the year!

<!--QuoteBegin-NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[/b]

Too bad it didn't start up a few days from now, in 2006... Talk about an early start to the hurricane season :lol:

 

[Mark Farnik]

With the tendency for storms this season to hang despite adverse conditions (like T.D. 10., which died but then redeveloped as T.D. 12, which developed into that infamous lady Katrina) and with no fronts/low pressure systems close enough to absorb it, I fully expect Zeta to continue churning south of the Azores into 2006. The mere existence of this storm is ridiculous in and of itself; however, if Zeta somehow manages to pull an Epsilon and reach hurricane strength over the now lukewarm waters of the eastern Atlantic... that would just be insane. :shock:

 

[Shane Adams]

The End is Nigh

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Just found this bit of trivia on a NOAA website and I thought I would pass it along.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E16.html

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Subject: E16) When did the earliest and latest hurricanes occur?

Contributed by Chris Landsea
The hurricane season is defined as June 1 through November 30. An early hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months prior to the start of the season, and a late hurricane can be defined as occurring in the three months after the season. With these criteria the earliest observed hurricane in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second “Aliceâ€￾ of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. The earliest hurricane to strike the United States was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the U. S. was late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida. (Contribution from Blake et al. 2005.)

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I have my doubts about zeta hanging around long enough to break the record on January 6, 2006.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Yeah, I think the NHC folks are getting tired of 2005 storms:

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Yeah, I think the NHC folks are getting tired of 2005 storms:

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

Just when I thought we would reach Omega



Pat

 

[PaulChambers]

Question....

Do they start naming storms with the NEW list January 1st or is it March 1st (which would be along the lines of the earlier referenced post)?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I believe they stick with Zeta until she/he dissipates. If a new storm forms from here on out, it will take on the first name of the 2006 list as far as I know.

There's no better way to cap off a year that started extremely active than to end with a storm that actually goes into the next year!

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Based on the information I found on the NOAA site I posted above, they define a late storm as one that forms within 3 months of the end of the season. This would suggest that they will use last years names until the end of February or three months after the end of the season.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Jason,

Perhaps, but the following statement from the Zeta discussion a few days ago would indicate that the alphabet starts over at New Years:

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/a...iscus.002.shtml?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

And again we see that there is very little skill in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones whose origins are in upper-level troughs or lows. If I'm not mistaken, Zeta is now the third tropical cyclone which has actually strengthened in relatively cold SSTs and relatively high-shear environments (the other two being Vince and Epsilon). The NHC's original forecast called for dissipating before the 1st of the year, and every forecast since then has called for gradual weakening. I'm not dogging the NHC, but it's obvious that there is remarkedly less skill forecasting the intensity of TCs from upper-level lows than from the more classic westward-moving tropical wave.

Zeta's intensity was upped to 50kts, and it's probably higher than that. Nice banded/stippled outflow evident in IR imagery, with pretty symmetric outflow and cold convective cloud tops. It should be mentioned that the GFDL has consistently called for Zeta to persist and strengthen into a hurricane. While it hasn't strengthened as much as the GFDL has forecast, the GFDL's forecasts have been considerably more accurate than those provided by other models.

There's pretty decent evidence of an eyewall forming:

 

[Pat Lawrence]

I found this remark rather humorous:

...ZETA ON A WEAKENING TREND...IT IS ABOUT TIME...

It was written by Dr. Avila in Public Advisory 22. I was beginning to wonder if it would last until Feb.

Pat

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Man - Zeta is the storm that just can't die!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/01/05/zeta...m.ap/index.html

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, it looks like Zeta if FINALLY going away... Deep convection has been absent from Zeta for the past 12 hours, and there's now nothing much other than a low-level cloud swirl. The >20kts midlevel shear and 24C SSTs have finally overcome the vigorous convection that had surprisingly accompanied Zeta.

From the final 4pm Discussion:

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY.