Tropical Storm Matthew

[Michael Nicolaou]

This one bears watching all through the Gulf Coast. Dependent on intensification and the stregnth of the progressing trough this could meander WNW in to the Bay of Campech or take a hard right and affect the eastern GOM.

Got my attention:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The probability of that hard right turn over water is slim for Matthew. It probably will hit Nicaragua / Honduras and beat-out over land.

If you are a hurricane chaser this year in the USA (and planning to chase IN the USA), you'll be a very disappointed person. This year has been a "fish" and / or abroad year.

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

Mattew has really organized since last night and 998mb readings have been found. While the track for the next 24 - 36 hours is very consistent the impact of the monsoonal low over Central America vs. the trough moving SE through the CONUS is up for grabs.

On top of that are several models consistently dissapating Matthew over central america only to have Nicole from by Tues/Wed next week near Jamaica.

IMO there are so many wild card variables in the models right now, which is why we have such disparate tracks and projections. I'm thinking a slow decelration over the Yucutan but an eventual emergence into the GOM NE of Cancun and then a drift north.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

It looks like a LLC has decoupled and moving over central, northern Belize.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html