Tropical Cyclone Gonu

Jordan Hartley

Havent seen anything on ST about Tropical Cyclone Gonu so I thought I would stir the pot. Gonu is cat. 4 storm with wind speeds estimated at 130 knots and is headed NW towards Saudi Arabia. Thing that sucks is there are alot of US Navy warships off the coast of Iran and if this things holds together and turns N it will head straight for our ships. Here is a link to a blog on timebomb2000.com about this TC.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=243998
 
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Its now a cat 5 with winds nearing 195 mph... now thats a MONSTER! Super cyclonic storm Gonu is forecast to strike Oman at about 00:00 GMT on 6 June. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 22.1 N, 60.2 E. Gonu is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 212 km/h (132 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher. Here comes $4 a gallon...

Heres a link to Gonu's forcasted path:

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp2t.png
 
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Aww, man, no forecast keeping it on a northwesterly track towards Baghdad, lol. That would be some interesting dry-air entrainment lol. Also the Persian Gulf is quite chilly, I've swam in it. Still could bring some unusual weather up that direction.
 
I wonder what will happen if Dubai gets creamed and all those man made peninsulas get overwhelmed by storm surge. Uh that would be a wrinkle they did not plan for.
 
How atypical is this storm for the Arabian Sea. I'm not familiar with the "norm" for cyclone development in this area.

The satellite image Jordan posted reminds me of the visual appearence of Rita near peak intensity. This storm seemed to have had a similar sized eye and CDO at the time this image was produced.
 
Can this storm possibly hold together closer to the Arabian Peninsula? That is some of the hottest, driest air in the world.

I agree, the Persian Gulf might be cool in winter, but when its 130F in Dubai the Gulf is going to heat up with no problem.
 
How atypical is this storm for the Arabian Sea.
Click to expand...

John, it's hard to say for sure because accurate records of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea don't go back very far. From what I was able to dig up using the famous "quick n' dirty" approach, on average the Arabian Sea gets 1.6 "tropical storms" (40 mph or greater), and 0.4 "hurricanes" (74 mph or greater) each year. That's roughly one hurricane-equivalent storm every three years. There have also been years with no "named storms" at all. These estimates come from records of the past 27 years.

Powerful tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are rare in the records available. I was only able to find three other instances of a storm that reached Category 3 on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale (once each in 1998, 1999, and 2001). Gonu is the first ever to reach Cat 4 and the first to reach Cat 5 (again, on the U.S. S-S scale).

They use different classifications, rating schemes, and terminology in that part of the world (the India Meteorological Department has the formal responsibility for TC forecasting there), which can make comparisons tricky... for example, "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" vs. "hurricane"... not to mention the 10-min vs. 1-min averaging for estimating the winds. But no matter how you slice it, this is a storm for the record books.
 
I dont have much time attm to update on the storm so i found this and posted it for all to read, link is at the bottom.


Oman Closes Major Port as Cyclone Gonu Strikes Persian Gulf
Wednesday, June 06, 2007



ADVERTISEMENT
MUSCAT, Oman —

Oman evacuated tens of thousands Wednesday, suspended oil exports and closed the major port of Sohar as a weakening Cyclone Gonu roared toward the Strait of Hormuz — the world's major transport artery for Persian Gulf oil.

Oil prices rose amid forecasts that the strongest storm to threaten the Arabian Peninsula in 60 years was barreling toward Iran.

As heavy rains lashed coastal areas, authorities closed all operations at the port of Sohar and evacuated the 11,000 workers, port spokesman Dirk Jan De Vink said.

Sohar's oil refinery and petrochemical plant remained running at very low levels, with authorities considering a total shutdown, he said.
READ MORE BELOW:
http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,278435,00.html
 
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