Tornadic Storms Possible in New Jersey 8/31/05?

I heard there is a chance that the remains of Katrina could possibly spawn some tornadic thunderstorms in New Jersey Wednesday. Can anyone here tell me how great the chances are?

Thanks.

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NE hoses

SPC has the 5% tornado probablilty covering all of NJ, CT, and the NYC metropolitan area, which is pretty good for that area. If they can get some daytime heating, things might get
interesting.
 
To make it short... The threat appears to be somewhat marginal. Deep moisture and rather strong low-level(>300m2/s2 helicity) / bulk shear (+40kts) will bring the potential for a few rotating storms/mini-supercells. Not much SFC-based instability will be able to develop tomorrow (typically less than 1000J/KG). Therefore, it puts somewhat of a limit on what could develop tomorrow -- yet, the shear/weak instability should be enough to produce an isolated tornado or two.
 
I actually started a FCST: NY/NJ thread in the maproom which talks about this. A Tornado Watch was just issued for PA/NJ which may be the first time ever for this time of night (3am-9am).
 
I'm in CT and the local update on TWC said "Possibility of Tornadoes." That was right in the forecast. I've seen that before out storm chasing in the plains, but never in the northeast.
 
I'm in CT and the local update on TWC said "Possibility of Tornadoes." That was right in the forecast. I've seen that before out storm chasing in the plains, but never in the northeast.

We can get some violent thunderstorms around here, and my area has been under tornado watches before. I live near New York City. Tornadoes around here are very rare, but they have happened.

Oddly, I have to go into New York City today to get parts for my mountain bike. Let's see what happens.
 
tornados

well im in hbg, pa, we've already been hit with 2 tornados in york county and cumberland county...not the major devesation of NO but a farm was leveled and some other damage as well as power outages...late last nite around 1 am, the dog had us up for an hour while the storms passed through...i hope its over for now...these were just f1s, but thats about what we see here in our area...only time that i know of anything higher was last july when campbell town had a neighborhood leveled by an f3. i work with a builder that lost 8 houses alone (these were new builds that were either completed, or near completion) one of the workers happened to be outside during this storm and only had enough time to crawl under a front end loader and hang on for dear life! scary sh*t here!
 
Nothing much here, so far-I was buying ice cream at a Mister Softee truck in front of my house a few minutes ago, and there was a rain shower.

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edit to last message post by me

one mistake in my last message...the tornado did not touch down in york county it was adams county (just a little bit lower than york, includes gettysburg area) that was where the farm was damaged...york county lies between adams and cumberland which is where the storm damage was.
 
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