Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2003
- Messages
- 3,411
Since 2011 I have been working on an ongoing project to quantify cold air outbreaks in the central United States using NCEP 6-hour Reanalysis data to develop sets of forecast pattern composites. In the process I've completed a listing of top ranked cold wave episodes.
My study actually covers different regions of the entire U.S. and Canada, but here are the results for Oklahoma in a box between 34-37N and 100-94W (except for the Panhandle). Not surprisingly, the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks top the list. In the 1983 example, Christmas Eve brought a maximum temperature of 3F at OKC, while Tulsa made it to 5F and DFW struggled to 13F.
For those of you not in Oklahoma, I'll probably post other regions as I get them completed. The values shown are mean temperatures in Celsius degrees of the lowest 30 mb (surface to about 1000 ft), during the period November 1948 to March 2013.
_________________________
One week average
1 1983-12-23 -18.8
2 1989-12-21 -13.1
3 1996-02-02 -12.2
4 1989-02-06 -11.8
5 1951-01-31 -10.9
6 1972-12-10 -10.3
7 1979-01-04 -9.8
8 1985-02-03 -9.4
9 1973-01-08 -9.2
10 1997-01-14 -8.9
11 1978-01-20 -8.8
12 1982-01-11 -8.8
13 1990-12-25 -8.8
14 1974-01-02 -8.6
15 1963-01-27 -8.5
16 1983-12-30 -8.3
17 1982-02-07 -8.2
18 1984-01-18 -8.1
19 2010-01-07 -8.1
20 1988-01-08 -8.1
21 1979-01-30 -7.5
22 1960-03-03 -7.1
23 1962-01-09 -7.0
24 1979-01-12 -6.8
25 1959-01-03 -6.7
26 1963-01-14 -6.7
27 1966-02-01 -6.6
28 1949-01-29 -6.6
29 1963-12-21 -6.6
30 1980-01-30 -6.3
31 1970-01-07 -6.1
32 1968-01-10 -6.0
33 1978-02-18 -6.0
34 1976-01-06 -5.9
35 1977-01-09 -5.7
36 2003-02-27 -5.7
37 1998-12-23 -5.6
38 1978-01-29 -5.6
39 2011-02-04 -5.5
40 1958-02-14 -5.5
41 2000-12-31 -5.5
42 1979-02-07 -5.5
43 1961-01-28 -5.4
44 1978-02-09 -5.4
45 1986-02-10 -5.3
46 1980-12-23 -5.3
47 1977-01-16 -5.0
48 1960-01-21 -5.0
49 2000-12-15 -5.0
50 1971-01-07 -4.8
_________________________
_________________________
Three-day average
1 1983-12-24 -22.1
2 1989-12-23 -18.6
3 1989-02-05 -17.8
4 1990-12-23 -15.7
5 1996-02-01 -15.4
6 1951-01-30 -14.7
7 1962-01-11 -13.7
8 1963-01-13 -13.6
9 1982-01-12 -13.5
10 1959-01-05 -13.5
11 1985-02-02 -13.4
12 1997-01-13 -13.4
13 1974-01-02 -13.0
14 1972-12-11 -12.3
15 1979-01-02 -12.2
16 1982-02-05 -12.1
17 1966-01-30 -12.0
18 2011-02-03 -11.9
19 2010-01-09 -11.7
20 1998-12-23 -11.5
21 1973-01-10 -11.2
22 1977-01-10 -11.1
23 1963-01-25 -11.0
24 2003-02-26 -10.6
25 1984-01-20 -10.5
26 1949-01-30 -10.3
27 1970-01-08 -10.2
28 1978-01-19 -10.2
29 1977-01-01 -10.1
30 1961-01-26 -10.0
31 2000-12-13 -9.9
32 1988-01-09 -9.9
33 1978-01-11 -9.8
34 1968-01-08 -9.8
35 1970-01-20 -9.8
36 1976-01-09 -9.6
37 1979-02-17 -9.6
38 1979-01-31 -9.5
39 1993-02-18 -9.5
40 1985-12-13 -9.4
41 1979-01-15 -9.4
42 1963-12-22 -9.3
43 1983-12-31 -9.3
44 1985-01-21 -9.2
45 2004-12-24 -9.2
46 1971-01-06 -9.2
47 1950-12-07 -9.0
48 1977-01-18 -8.9
49 1957-01-16 -8.8
50 2001-01-02 -8.7
_________________________
_________________________
One day average
1 1983-12-23 -22.8
2 1989-12-23 -22.5
3 1982-01-11 -19.8
4 1989-02-04 -19.4
5 1990-12-23 -18.9
6 1996-02-01 -18.2
7 1963-01-13 -17.6
8 1972-12-07 -17.4
9 1959-01-04 -17.1
10 1963-01-24 -17.1
11 1981-02-11 -16.7
12 1985-02-01 -16.6
13 1951-01-30 -16.4
14 1976-01-08 -16.1
15 1977-01-10 -16.0
16 1962-01-11 -16.0
17 1998-12-22 -15.8
18 1974-01-01 -15.7
19 1966-01-30 -15.4
20 1979-01-14 -15.2
21 1968-01-08 -14.9
22 1985-01-21 -14.9
23 1979-01-02 -14.8
24 2000-12-12 -14.7
25 1997-01-12 -14.5
26 1982-02-06 -14.1
27 1990-12-31 -14.0
28 1979-02-17 -13.9
29 2010-01-08 -13.8
30 1964-12-18 -13.6
31 2011-02-02 -13.5
32 1976-12-31 -13.5
33 1962-01-20 -13.4
34 1994-02-10 -13.4
35 1970-01-19 -13.2
36 1983-12-30 -13.2
37 2003-02-25 -13.2
38 1973-01-10 -12.9
39 1993-02-18 -12.7
40 1996-01-19 -12.6
41 2008-12-16 -12.6
42 1972-01-15 -12.5
43 1970-01-09 -12.5
44 1951-12-16 -12.4
45 1985-01-12 -12.4
46 1954-01-22 -12.4
47 1978-01-18 -12.4
48 1950-12-07 -12.3
49 1985-12-02 -12.3
50 1979-01-31 -12.1
_________________________
My study actually covers different regions of the entire U.S. and Canada, but here are the results for Oklahoma in a box between 34-37N and 100-94W (except for the Panhandle). Not surprisingly, the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks top the list. In the 1983 example, Christmas Eve brought a maximum temperature of 3F at OKC, while Tulsa made it to 5F and DFW struggled to 13F.
For those of you not in Oklahoma, I'll probably post other regions as I get them completed. The values shown are mean temperatures in Celsius degrees of the lowest 30 mb (surface to about 1000 ft), during the period November 1948 to March 2013.
_________________________
One week average
1 1983-12-23 -18.8
2 1989-12-21 -13.1
3 1996-02-02 -12.2
4 1989-02-06 -11.8
5 1951-01-31 -10.9
6 1972-12-10 -10.3
7 1979-01-04 -9.8
8 1985-02-03 -9.4
9 1973-01-08 -9.2
10 1997-01-14 -8.9
11 1978-01-20 -8.8
12 1982-01-11 -8.8
13 1990-12-25 -8.8
14 1974-01-02 -8.6
15 1963-01-27 -8.5
16 1983-12-30 -8.3
17 1982-02-07 -8.2
18 1984-01-18 -8.1
19 2010-01-07 -8.1
20 1988-01-08 -8.1
21 1979-01-30 -7.5
22 1960-03-03 -7.1
23 1962-01-09 -7.0
24 1979-01-12 -6.8
25 1959-01-03 -6.7
26 1963-01-14 -6.7
27 1966-02-01 -6.6
28 1949-01-29 -6.6
29 1963-12-21 -6.6
30 1980-01-30 -6.3
31 1970-01-07 -6.1
32 1968-01-10 -6.0
33 1978-02-18 -6.0
34 1976-01-06 -5.9
35 1977-01-09 -5.7
36 2003-02-27 -5.7
37 1998-12-23 -5.6
38 1978-01-29 -5.6
39 2011-02-04 -5.5
40 1958-02-14 -5.5
41 2000-12-31 -5.5
42 1979-02-07 -5.5
43 1961-01-28 -5.4
44 1978-02-09 -5.4
45 1986-02-10 -5.3
46 1980-12-23 -5.3
47 1977-01-16 -5.0
48 1960-01-21 -5.0
49 2000-12-15 -5.0
50 1971-01-07 -4.8
_________________________
_________________________
Three-day average
1 1983-12-24 -22.1
2 1989-12-23 -18.6
3 1989-02-05 -17.8
4 1990-12-23 -15.7
5 1996-02-01 -15.4
6 1951-01-30 -14.7
7 1962-01-11 -13.7
8 1963-01-13 -13.6
9 1982-01-12 -13.5
10 1959-01-05 -13.5
11 1985-02-02 -13.4
12 1997-01-13 -13.4
13 1974-01-02 -13.0
14 1972-12-11 -12.3
15 1979-01-02 -12.2
16 1982-02-05 -12.1
17 1966-01-30 -12.0
18 2011-02-03 -11.9
19 2010-01-09 -11.7
20 1998-12-23 -11.5
21 1973-01-10 -11.2
22 1977-01-10 -11.1
23 1963-01-25 -11.0
24 2003-02-26 -10.6
25 1984-01-20 -10.5
26 1949-01-30 -10.3
27 1970-01-08 -10.2
28 1978-01-19 -10.2
29 1977-01-01 -10.1
30 1961-01-26 -10.0
31 2000-12-13 -9.9
32 1988-01-09 -9.9
33 1978-01-11 -9.8
34 1968-01-08 -9.8
35 1970-01-20 -9.8
36 1976-01-09 -9.6
37 1979-02-17 -9.6
38 1979-01-31 -9.5
39 1993-02-18 -9.5
40 1985-12-13 -9.4
41 1979-01-15 -9.4
42 1963-12-22 -9.3
43 1983-12-31 -9.3
44 1985-01-21 -9.2
45 2004-12-24 -9.2
46 1971-01-06 -9.2
47 1950-12-07 -9.0
48 1977-01-18 -8.9
49 1957-01-16 -8.8
50 2001-01-02 -8.7
_________________________
_________________________
One day average
1 1983-12-23 -22.8
2 1989-12-23 -22.5
3 1982-01-11 -19.8
4 1989-02-04 -19.4
5 1990-12-23 -18.9
6 1996-02-01 -18.2
7 1963-01-13 -17.6
8 1972-12-07 -17.4
9 1959-01-04 -17.1
10 1963-01-24 -17.1
11 1981-02-11 -16.7
12 1985-02-01 -16.6
13 1951-01-30 -16.4
14 1976-01-08 -16.1
15 1977-01-10 -16.0
16 1962-01-11 -16.0
17 1998-12-22 -15.8
18 1974-01-01 -15.7
19 1966-01-30 -15.4
20 1979-01-14 -15.2
21 1968-01-08 -14.9
22 1985-01-21 -14.9
23 1979-01-02 -14.8
24 2000-12-12 -14.7
25 1997-01-12 -14.5
26 1982-02-06 -14.1
27 1990-12-31 -14.0
28 1979-02-17 -13.9
29 2010-01-08 -13.8
30 1964-12-18 -13.6
31 2011-02-02 -13.5
32 1976-12-31 -13.5
33 1962-01-20 -13.4
34 1994-02-10 -13.4
35 1970-01-19 -13.2
36 1983-12-30 -13.2
37 2003-02-25 -13.2
38 1973-01-10 -12.9
39 1993-02-18 -12.7
40 1996-01-19 -12.6
41 2008-12-16 -12.6
42 1972-01-15 -12.5
43 1970-01-09 -12.5
44 1951-12-16 -12.4
45 1985-01-12 -12.4
46 1954-01-22 -12.4
47 1978-01-18 -12.4
48 1950-12-07 -12.3
49 1985-12-02 -12.3
50 1979-01-31 -12.1
_________________________