"Too Much" Lead Time?

[Mike Smith]

Over the weekend, it was very gratifying that Missouri Gov. Nixon attributed the lack of loss of life to the storm warnings for the St. Louis-area storms. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/01/thank-you-missouri-governor-nixon.html

I was looking at some of the newspaper and radio station news stories that allow comments and there were multiple commenting (paraphrasing) there was too much lead time. One even reported coming out of the basement prematurely.

When I was on Don Marsh's radio show on KWMU (NPR) yesterday morning, Don brought up (again, paraphrasing) sirens going off in too many areas for too long. I explained that I thought the NWS did a very good job and that 30 years ago, there likely would have been no warning and people would have been killed.

That said, this and previous experiences are slowly persuading me that there can be too much warning for a tornado and that number seems to be around 30 to 45 minutes. I don't know what others think but I believe this is a topic that is worthy of more investigation.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I would say 30 to 45 minute lead time might be overdoing it in some cases. With this case given the history of the system and storm speeds, the population density of St. Louis a higher lead time could help get the word out and at least make people aware of the situation. Maybe there should be a differentiation between TAKE COVER NOW! situation and in 30 min you will need to be in a substantial shelter in any case at least there were tornadoes so people will remember tornado sirens = tornado.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Perosnally I don't think the masses will ever be truly satsified. I think it is impossible to do so. Case in point and something that you are very familiar with, Mike:
The Greensburg event had some great lead time some (20 min?) of which I am proud that I was part of yet people still died. After I made my way into Greensburg, helping pull people out of the rubble and recover bodies, I heard one man who we helped pull out say that "hell we had enough time to dig a shelter" Of course he was refering to his house not having a basement but the fact remains that this was his thought process due to the extened lead time. He went on to say that the sirens were going off for a good 15 minutes and that he and his family actually thought about driving east out of town towards Pratt.

As we all know Lead Time is always going to be some kind of an issue with everybody. You can't please everybody most particularly those who hold elected positions or those with a "higher" position than most. The simple fact remains that they have constituents that they represent and all it takes is the voice of a few of these constituents to make a difference when the vote counts.

I don't know if there is truly going to be a happy middle as far as warning and or lead times. Mike you have worked with the media, I am sure you are aware that people get ticked off when there is a warning issued and the local met. breaks regular program to warn everyone. You could have a mile wide wedge down by Conway Springs heading into Sedgwick County and those people just north of Mulvane would still bitch about missing Dancing with The Stars even if it is bearing down on them. Yet these same people would be the first one on the local TV station that evening bitching about how the sirens didn't go off or they did not know there was a tornado coming after the fact.

IMHO warning times are actually pretty good. Could they be better? Of course they could but all in all we have come so far from where we were just 15-20 years ago even.

 

[Benjamin Smith]

Personally I don't think there is such a thing as too much lead time. Frankly it kind of irks me that anyone would even consider complaining about it. Lanny brings up some good points that we can never make everybody happy when it comes to this. I err on the side of caution. Since tornadoes kill, everyone should pay attention and heed the warnings no matter when they come in.

 

[Steve Miller]

I've read a lot of opinions about this subject and personally believe there is a point when people will say "screw it" and emerge from their dark cellar, their uncomfortable bathtub with the mattress covering them, or their most protected, stuffy closet. Whatever protection they have, 30-45 minutes of confinement will be enough to stir the most fearful from their "safe" place.

Perhaps a true warning lead-time that will save more* lives is awareness well before the storm. Models are clearly getting better as they process scenarios. Future models will be simply amazing. Look at the Rapid Refresh products that have emerged over the past few years, not to mention the 2-4km WRF-NMM products. They are amazingly accurate 24 hours out with severe weather.

Perhaps in the future there will be advisories or some sort of longer-term watch the public can consume 12-24 hours before an event. Even the display to mass audience of a true depiction of what might happen using these models on TV/web might help. What if at some point people can just collect their family, valuables & pets and take a day-trip to avoid disaster? What is schools could take a "severe weather day", or at least be very prepared for a potential disaster.

Of course, like Lanny said, no matter what you do for the public, they will not be happy or will become complacent. I would venture to guess the absolute best warning process would be a similar model to the SAME-capable NOAA weather radio, except for television. Another good point by Lanny is the public's concern with missing their favorite reality show. With the emerging technology in the cable business (IP TV), maybe the concentration would/should be delivery of severe weather information to only the households in an area that is affected is the answer. No more blanket break-ins would mean that when a TV breaking weather interruption occurs, they mean immediate business.

These are just thoughts and opinions. I do not want to steer this thread in a TV met warning direction; my latter thoughts just meshed well with the rest of my post.

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Some great points and food for thought above...

I'm most definitely in the camp that says too much lead time IS a bad thing. I'd really like to see more research by WAS*IS concerning this topic, I think it's going to come more front and center as models and forecasting continue to improve. As a person who has managed outdoor sports venues and camp situations, 30 minutes is great when shelter is not nearby. However, in my opinion, the effectiveness of a warning probably starts to fall off beyond this mark. The majority of folks in a warning area are probably better served by something in the neighborhood of 15-30 minutes.

Of course, and not to dive off topic, in addition to dialing in an effective lead time, I'm always in favor of research and efforts to improve the FAR. I really get tired of hear this, and a friend and family did this in MO this weekend, "We didn't go to the basement when the sirens went off, they keep setting them off and nothing happens."

 

[Danny Neal]

13 to 20 minutes seems like the best threshold. Even at night on a storm moving 55 mph. The way I figure it is, it won't matter if the NWR states the storm is moving at 55 or 15, a person is either going to heed the warning or they aren't. 13 minutes is enough time for someone to wake up in the middle of the night, grab their kids, pets, and supplies to make it to shelter with 5+ minutes to spare. The longer the lead time, the more relaxed people are liable to become. I compare it to when I am at the fire house at night. It is 3 A.M. and we are sleeping... suddenly the bell goes off. It is an immediate reaction to get up and get where we need to be. It isn't a well you are going to have a call in 30 minutes.... so we are just letting you guys know this. <---- A poor attempt at comparing I know, but I sort of see a small connection there. I also have a stance where nobody should have to sit through more than 1 severe weather statement unless it is in real time. I generally notice severe weather statements are 15 minutes apart give or take. If people are in their cellars and hear more than 1 SVS then they've been down there to long. Exceptions to the rule would be storms moving at 60+ and night time tornadoes. But again 20 minutes seems to be the upper threshold.

------

I realize we aren't only dealing with single family homes. With the 13-20 minute rule you may ask, "well what happens if this tornado is going to impact a sporting event, festival, hospital, nursing home, etc." I have thought about this as well which is why I am such a strong proponent for http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/ Warn on forecast project. (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?25811-Expanding-warning-times-for-tornadoes....) a great thread here covering components of this. While the general public still gets its' 13-20 minute lead time.... bigger corporations, hospitals, public safety centers, etc can utilize the WoF and begin taking precautions well ahead of time.

 

[rdale]

Great post Danny... It drives me crazy with my local office issuing their warnings for 60-80 minutes at a time... Nobody in their right mind is going to sit in the basement for an hour, let alone nearly an hour and a half. But it does increase their chance of verifying the warning, so I see that side.

 

[Mike Smith]

I realize we aren't only dealing with single family homes. With the 13-20 minute rule you may ask, "well what happens if this tornado is going to impact a sporting event, festival, hospital, nursing home, etc. I have thought about this as well which is why I am such a strong proponent for http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/ Warn on forecast project. (http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?25811-Expanding-warning-times-for-tornadoes....) a great thread here covering components of this. While the general public still gets its' 13-20 minute lead time.... bigger corporations, hospitals, public safety centers, etc can utilize the WoF and begin taking precautions well ahead of time.

This what the private sector weather companies are for. These enterprises already have tailored forecasts for their special requirements by commercial weather companies.

 

[Danny Neal]

This what the private sector weather companies are for. These enterprises already have tailored forecasts for their special requirements by commercial weather companies.

To be honest, it makes no difference to me whether or not the NWS or private sector gets the warning out or who utilizes what. As long as it gets from Point A (the forecasters) to Point B (the user) then it is a success. The problem is how do we get all of these corporations to utilize this service whether it is WoF from private or WoF from NWS.

A hypothetical (potentially real) situation:

The sport arena next door to the nursing home. The sport arena uses the private sector.... postpones its event because there is a 40% chance of a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado within in the next 60-90 minutes. People leave the stadium area to go to bars, restaurants, etc not on site. Let's throw a number out there.... 20,000 people weren't on site. Now let us fast forward an hour. The private sector has an 80% chance of a tornado moving through. But the NWS has not yet issued a tornado warning. Sirens aren't sounding, the sky is dull and gray to the west, a hint of a storm moving through but the nursing home is unaware. We advance 10 minutes. The NWS issues a tornado warning for *insert* with DR indicated tornado 15 miles SW of *here* moving NE at 40 mph. That gives you what? 20 or so minutes of lead time? The nursing home is notified and has 15 minutes of lead time to get their 200 residents to shelter. Is this doable? A tornado hits 22 minutes later, there were fatalities at the nursing home and none at the sporting arena. There is a residential area near here where there were no fatalities. The only fatalities were because the nursing home did not use WoF from either NWS or Private. The 13-20 minute threshold was a success in the residential areas and the 60-90 minute threshold was a success in the sport arena. Would the NWS and private sector collaborate? Would the private sector reach out to the nursing home? Seems like the private sector has been doing this for a while, while the NWS is still in its developmental stage. I know it is not a competition with peoples lives but would the two work together to create one WoF scheme or would PRI have theirs and NWS have theirs? I know there are minds from both area on ST and who have already chimed in..... There are other threads on this too that I am going to go back and read but I wanted to gauge your thoughts on this

 

[Bob Hartig]

Great thread, and more insights have already gone into it than I'd have ever thought of. I'll toss in my two cents on one item, though: For the residential public, the question may not be so much one of lead time, but of the kind of warning issued. A tornado siren has a built-in urgency to it that instantly communicates, "Act now!" Beyond a few minutes, there's bound to be a threshold at which that urgency is lost and people no longer take the warning seriously.

On the other hand, other kinds of lead time--i.e. this storm has a history of producing tornadoes and will be in your community in half an hour; stay alert and be prepared to take emergency action--seem to me like a good thing. That stepped approach lets people know that storms are on the way without crying wolf. Sirens, on the other hand, should be reserved for when the storms are actually arriving.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I agree that 15 minutes is about as much time as anyone should need.

This is why whenever weather researches say they are working to improve warning times I always ask why? IMO accuracy is far more important than leading time. It doesn't take people long to take shelter, even the most immobile persons [elderly or handicapped] should be able to make it somewhere safe within their house in 15 minutes.

 

[Skip Talbot]

People need as much time as we can possibly give them. I can think of instances where 10 or 15 minutes might not be enough time. Maybe you're dangling from a platform somewhere out in the open, strapped to some scaffolding working on a project. It might take you 10 minutes just to get down, and then I'd like more than a few minutes to find a suitable shelter. Perhaps your kids or animals are all scattered about and it takes you 10 minutes just to round them up...

If the increased warning time creates additional problems, we should deal with those problems. Maybe the sirens could get louder or the tone enhanced to sound more menacing as the tornado approaches the location of the siren (would require extra hardware on each siren).

 

[Rocky Watson]

If people would use the education they have received for years on tornadoes, they would hear the sirens with what ever "lead" time there is, they would gather there shoes and clothing, pets and children, and RADIOS and NOAA Radios, ( or turning up there televisions as loud as possible like Dave Freeman told the Greensburg folks to do) and then move to shelter, then they would be more prepared, Greensburg's Lead Time was excellent, because 10 mins before the tornado hit the electric went out, but everyone had heard on tv and radio that a large tornado was coming, IT'S ALL IN THE EDUCATION OF PEOPLE and we all know for some YOU CAN'T FIX STUPID!

 

[Danny Neal]

See, I do not agree with that.... 20 maybe 30 minutes is it for me on general NWS warnings. If the kids are scattered about all over the place during a tornado watch (can't assume we are dealing with a random tornado warning) then there needs to be better communication on their part on what to do during severe weather. We are leveling it down to just the basic tornado warning..... forgetting that people should already be aware of the situation (I.E a tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch) that had been issued before. Those working on a scaffolding would be aware of bad weather possibly moving into the area before they even get up there. If they aren't then maybe we need to devise ways to better get word out there of what can possibly happen over how long we give them for something that is imminent or happening?