The NWS Forecasts for Katrina

[HAltschule]

With all of the negative talk and bashing of our government recently (myself included), I just wanted to highlight something that was overlooked somewhat. The NWS and NHC did an AWESOME job forecasting Katrina and what the results would be. They certainly deserve a hand for a job well done. All too often the NWS and forecasters are blasted for incorrect forecasts. In this case they were right on the money, particularly with the "Harshest Statement we have ever seen them issue". They said it would happen to N.O. and it did.

I bring this up because I belong to a TV News forum that consists of producers, execs, anchors, Tom Brokaws, Al Rokers, TWC people, Etc. There was a thread created today in which EVERYBODY recognized the NWS for their awesome forecasts. They continued to go on about the rest of the government being at fault. Interestingly, the "Harshest Statement we have ever seen them issue", if you remember what it said, started the thread over there saying that they were right. The next post said, yes, that is correct, but only 5% of the people there saw that statement because The Weather Channel does not show NWS forecasts anymore. they use their own. So, I know that TWC had a pessimistic forecast...but could their have been another way to get the especially harsh and solid NWS SPS and forecast out to more of the folks in N.O.? That is something that may need to be conisdered. Another means of forecast/impact distribution.

 

[rdale]

"The next post said, yes, that is correct, but only 5% of the people there saw that statement because The Weather Channel does not show NWS forecasts anymore."

The Weather Channel still carries all NWS watches and warnings - the "harsh" wording was not in a forecast. It was in a Non-Precipitation Warning, and that is something nobody carries, just played on the local NOAA Weather Radio (which means nobody hears it.)

 

[Andrew Khan]

They really did do an awsome job forecasting Katrina, and keeping everyone up to date. Creating new Forecast Modles, and Forecast Tracks, was essential in this as well.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Hear hear -- they pretty much nailed that path. I don't think there's a thing the NWS could have done better. The post-disaster reorganization of responsibilities was also pretty impressive. Awesome job.

Tim

 

[HAltschule]

The Weather Channel still carries all NWS watches and warnings - the "harsh" wording was not in a forecast. It was in a Non-Precipitation Warning, and that is something nobody carries, just played on the local NOAA Weather Radio (which means nobody hears it.)

Yes. I think there is some validity in the statements that the majority of the public didn't know how bad this was really going to be. Theoretically, had that strongly worded SPS (or other header) had a way to get distributed and disseminated to the MAJORITY of the public somehow, things may be slightly different. I think this is something that needs to be considered. IMO, when such a confident and descriptive statement is issued, it needs to get out there to all of the people. Not just the Hurricane Warning. The people that figure out how to accomplish this, of course, will be doing a great public service. And hopefully more people will heed the warnings.

 

[rdale]

I'm sure the media down there got it, and if they felt it matched up with their forecast it was passed on... There's not much else that can be done to get NWS info right to the public if the public doesn't make any effort to get it!

 

[HAltschule]

True. I suppose that's the million dollar question. How do we get this detailed info. to the rich, poor, homeless, etc... And if/when we ever figure out a way to do it...it can obviously be incorporated into TOR's also. Thank you for your current and future comments. I'm sure some of this praise will get back to the NWS and the higher ups.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

True. I suppose that's the million dollar question. How do we get this detailed info. to the rich, poor, homeless, etc... And if/when we ever figure out a way to do it...it can obviously be incorporated into TOR's also. Thank you for your current and future comments. I'm sure some of this praise will get back to the NWS and the higher ups.

How do you get it out to the majority of the public, especially those that don't have NOAA Wx Radio? This is where the media steps in. I think most would say that, for the majority of folks, the first source for weather information is from the media, particularly for the "low-income" families who are less likely to have wx radios and high-speed internet. I'm sure the local TV stations did a fabulous job gettting the word out, which is one of the primary, life-saving benefits the industry. Unfortunately, once the media gets the information out, the action taken (or lack of action taken) lies with the audience.

 

[Glen Romine]

I too was impressed with the forecast/warnings issued by the NWS hierarchy - they did an excellent job top down of trying to sound the alarm. Unfortunately - I think the tendency of the media to try and make lesser events more 'newsworthy' for ratings hurts in terms of desensitizing the general public. That said - clearly the majority of folks got the message - as indicated by the 80% evacuation rate for New Orleans. This is actually better than expected in some of the natural disaster planning documents I've read. Unfortunately - communicating with the poor is multi-faceted, and this part of the country is particularly poor. Few likely knew of the actual hazards they would face, or how to 'survive' like most of the rest of us would. It would be great if the NWS were able to more directly communicate with the public - but most Americans get information from private sources - and those sources have unique external pressures, autonomy and often several layers that can cloud the actual delivery. While the NWS statements were overdone - they served a purpose of trying to stimulate the private communication layer to action. Unfortunately it seemed not all got the message, or were not aware of their actual risk. Outside of this, how many people even know if they live in a flood plain or not? Education, prior to the event, is probably the best solution - but difficult to implement among the poorest segments of society. The burden of responsibilty is difficult to assign to the weather service - but maybe that is the best route if local communities can't reliably get the messages out.

Glen

 

[Morgan Palmer]

While the NWS in New Orleans has the ability and responsibility to issue statements, I'm wondering why the strongly worded NPW language (which scared me) wasn't used in that form in the HLS, which might get a little more airplay. Just curious.

Also, I think the NWS' actual spokesman for a hurricane is Max Mayfield. And from all I could gather, he did a fine job. He was a calm personality, his words measured.

But maybe we didn't need that, but instead someone like Jefferson Parish sheriff Henry Lee who, during a press conference carried on all local television stations that "everyone should haul a** and get out now."

I don't think we'll ever come to tuesday with this Monday morning quarterbacking.
mp

 

[HAltschule]

Morgan,

I think you have the right idea. When a forecast is this confident and calling for such disastrous effects, the stronger, more convincing wording needs to be conveyed to the public. I personally think our responsibility as Meteorologists and storm chasers is to critique and play Monday morning quarterback and perhaps make some reccommendations to government as to how they (and we) can do things better the next time. With all of our combined experience, we might use this opportunity to give some consensus feedback to the NWS or OEM. The trick is figuring out what can be done do get the word out to everybody next time...including the "strong wording". It very well may be required, forceful evacuations? We might reccommend to the TWC that they air the NWS statements on their local crawls even if it doesn;t fall under the "Hurricane Warning" bulletin. Reccommendations like these and working with the government/Emergency Management, if nothing else, would sure improve public perception of who we are, what we do and that we're not just crazy storm nuts (at least not "crazy") but people who also care about what happened to our fellow Americans.

 

[Jason Toft]

Ok...what about that emergency alert system that is tested every Wednesday morning (at least in my area)??? Why can't some of the local and some of the national stations use that and broadcast the warnings out. Use the siren to get attention, then have the announcer say,"Mandatory Evacuations have been ordered. Please stand by for more information." Then, they would have the actual evac order read, then possibly another item. I believe that the networks, both local and national, need to stop worrying about ratings in storms like Katrina and get the people out. No one really cares if you have a cool new radar gadget that is working oh-so-spectacularly, GET THE PEOPLE OUT OF THE WAY!!!

Jason

 

[rdale]

I don't understand your question... Are you saying that the TV stations should interrupt their wall-to-wall coverage telling people to get out, and run a computerized voice with non-specific information telling people to get out? Doesn't make sense...

 

[Scott Olson]

I too was impressed with the forecast/warnings issued by the NWS hierarchy - they did an excellent job top down of trying to sound the alarm. Unfortunately - I think the tendency of the media to try and make lesser events more 'newsworthy' for ratings hurts in terms of desensitizing the general public. That said - clearly the majority of folks got the message - as indicated by the 80% evacuation rate for New Orleans. This is actually better than expected in some of the natural disaster planning documents I've read. Unfortunately - communicating with the poor is multi-faceted, and this part of the country is particularly poor. Few likely knew of the actual hazards they would face, or how to 'survive' like most of the rest of us would. It would be great if the NWS were able to more directly communicate with the public - but most Americans get information from private sources - and those sources have unique external pressures, autonomy and often several layers that can cloud the actual delivery. While the NWS statements were overdone - they served a purpose of trying to stimulate the private communication layer to action. Unfortunately it seemed not all got the message, or were not aware of their actual risk. Outside of this, how many people even know if they live in a flood plain or not? Education, prior to the event, is probably the best solution - but difficult to implement among the poorest segments of society. The burden of responsibilty is difficult to assign to the weather service - but maybe that is the best route if local communities can't reliably get the messages out.

Glen

I agree with Glen. The NWS did a great job and are commended for their work. Max Mayfield was the usual calm head in the room telling it how it is and not hyping the situaion. The Media did a good job in this situation my concern is that with alot of less obviously devastating Hurricanes they also make out total devastation. So if you are poor, hear on the news that a CAT 2 is coming in and the media hypes it to much and you scrape your money together and evacuate, only to return to your home unschathed. Im pretty sure those people can get de-sensitized by that. Im not sure how you can address this without addressing the millions of poor in our country.

 

[Scott Olson]

" It very well may be required, forceful evacuations?"

I don't think that would work very well. Would you break into everyone's home to see if they left? Would you arrest tens of thousands of people. Would they be evacuated to a shelter or out of city? Im more for education, emphasis on the dangers, providing transport to the shelters, etc.