The events leading up to the traffic Jam in SW OKC on May 31st 2013

This (see below):

This is a great thread for new chasers to read, and it's a lesson about what can happen when you play too close and don't have enough options for escape, or enough time to utilize them.

An escape route should never involve crossing a tornado's path, and that appears to be the main problem in this case. Reuter is 1-2 miles north of where the tornado crossed 81, which was closer to 15th. I know because we crossed 81 at 15th and the tornado was directly behind us. I don't agree with police blocking any roads at all (unless it's an extremely clear cut case), but in this case, I'd argue the police officer was actually in a beneficial position if he was blocking 81 southbound at Reuter, because the tornado crossed south of there.

Tornado to your south or southwest moving from east to northeast here are your escape route options:

Your best escape route would have been north. You had a beautiful escape route to the north on 81. A fast, four lane, paved highway, directly away from the path of the tornado. I don't care if there is 7" hail falling out of the storm. 7" inch hail doesn't roll your car 10 times or fling your body a quarter of a mile. You've committed to neglecting the hail threat if you're hook slicing or playing the inflow notch of an HP on a day with 5500 J/Kg of SBCAPE anyway.

The worst escape route would have been to continue east on Reuter, crossing the northeast moving tornado's path, trying to get out ahead of it. Conditions of the road up ahead are unknown. It's unpaved so it will be a slower road, more prone to flooding or blockage from debris. It'll slow you down just enough to put your right in the crosshairs when that tornado makes that occluding left hand turn like many big wedges do.

The next worst escape route would have been south. Why? Again, because you're crossing the tornado's path. It's a dangerous gamble racing that tornado. You may have cleared the tornado had the cop not been there, sure, and it's easy to blame the cop since he's a person. Had it been a tree blocking 81, it would have been a little harder pointing the finger. Anything can cut off your escape route. If you don't have another option, or the time to take that option, then you've made several mistakes already and placed yourself in a poor, potentialy deadly position.

A better escape route than east or south would have been west on Reuter. Simply turning around would take you into the hail and RFD, which is a bad place to be, but ultimately better than in the path of the tornado.

It's a lot easier to visualize this with a map. I borrowed Scott McPartland's map of the event which was pieced together from his own position and visual observations of the tornado at key times:
601813_10100575928441801_662134064_n.jpg


I've crudely annotated the position cited in a previous post of where the 81 roadblock was encountered, Reuter and 81, and the chaser's position coming up to this roadblock, as well as where the tornado may be, give or a take a mile or so east or west on that track, it doesn't change the reasoning here. The "good" (or less deadly) escape routes have green checkmarks, the "bad" (or potentially deadly) escape routes have red X's. It's pretty plain to see they cross the tornado's path.

The moral of the story for our new readers is that it's not a good idea to play in the bear's cage of the largest and most violent of supercells (many would argue of any supercell), and that it's better to take the road to hail and 80 mph winds than the road to 200+ mph winds. I'm not trying to be condescending here, but this seems like a fairly clear cut case when you lay out the options, and I think it should be spelled out bluntly so we don't lose more friends.

...should be the new image at the top of the ST home page. I wish I could "thumbs up" this post ten-thousand times. This is the most well written and concise form of the essence of chasing safety I think I've ever seen.
 
The tornado Just Got Worse.

The NWS's latest graphic seems to go a bit further than Skip's assessment:

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1370367469.437728.jpg

Judging by this, in retrospect it seems there was no chance whatsoever of outrunning the tornado to the south or east even if it had been a clear paved road all the way. It was simply too wide.

2.6 miles. Unbelievable.
 
It may be all moot points. The tornado rapidly increased in size from a quarter mile to 2.6 miles wide in a matter of a couple minutes. The winds I was describing as extreme inflow winds like I've never experienced was probably the tornado as it was expanding so rapidly there was no condensation or debris field to identify the outer edges of the tornado. I knew this wasn't an EF3 based on the winds but after the confirmation today, it pretty much places the blame on the extreme nature of the tornado. I still think I could have got south on 81 safely since some other chasers just a 1/4 mile south were diving south on Hwy 81 and made it out with no issue. However, with the extreme turn, extreme size, unprecedented rapid growth and extraordinary winds it was just a combination that didn't allow many escape options.

I should have taken the north route as pointed out above, I just never imagined the tornado growing that fast and into that size of a tornado simply because it hadn't happened before. A mistake I'll never make again.
 
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It's not a moot point, as DOW and RaXPol never existed before. So it could be very possible that other EF3's in the database are the same.
 
That's true, but we can't make that assumption without evidence. For now this seems to have been That Tornado, the statistically-inevitable blip on the far side of the bell.

Since DOW and RaxPol are out there now, there'll be more data coming in that we can use to adjust our reality if necessary.
 
I don't think Brandon was referring to the mobile EF5 determination as the moot point. I think he meant the escape options with the rapid size increase of the tornado. This really points to how/why so many very experienced chasers got caught in the circulation.

Reed
 
Brad Nelson just posted an excellent video which, at the :57 mark, shows the tornado make it's turn. It does appear to speed up and the very rapid size growth is clearly evident. By the 2:31 mark in the video, the tornado circulation fills the entire screen.
http://youtu.be/AFVzauLzK_Q

Reed
 
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I agree with Skip, I have always considered the last ditch move if you find your self north with uncertain (unpaved) E-W routes is just drive north and west (assuming similar motion). If you're in that position, it's baseballs or tornado, pick baseballs. I would have driven north, and then west on I40. I'm looking at the damage survey map and I am actually more concerned now, what would have happened had it not turned left? That would have been far worse.
 
I'm also curious why you disagree with sheltering in place. There's this misguided notion going around that a violent tornado isn't survivable above ground.. that simply isn't true. For perspective:

http://www.livingontherealworld.org/?p=899

I'd take my chances in an interior room on the lowest floor before I would in a vehicle any day.

Edit: Just saw your latest post. I think there are times where evacuating is a good idea -- if you're in a mobile home, if you're in a rural area and you know for certain that you have enough lead time, etc. But doing so on little lead time or in a populated area is just asking for disaster.
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How close to finding shelter were those people, thi time arund?
 
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Also note that despite all the dots near the core of the storm, there's only a few actual storm reports. To be blunt, anyone that says that their primary goal of being out chasing is to "save lives" by making reports to the NWS is probably full of it. They may make a point to submit reports while in the field, but that is not their raison d'etre. If it were, then the Spotter Network "dots" would be far more widely spaced, nationwide, on any given day.

Case and point -- where were all the "dots" in West Texas yesterday? Where were all the livestream feeds in New Hampshire or Maine? My guess is everyone was hunkering down in the Plains waiting for the next day with the best opportunity to *see tornadoes* which is the goal of most chasers.

Do chasers help by providing ground truth? Yes. But you don't need 500 people on the same storm to provide ground truth.

Unfortunately, the problem with something like volume and congestion is that nobody has any more or less right to be chasing than anyone else, regardless of goals, education, or background. The "problem" can't be down-scaled to the single person, just like no single rain drop can be blamed for a flood. It is dilemma - a problem that has no clear solution.

I think you hit the nail on the head here. There is nothing inherently wrong with wanting to see the "best" tornadoes (large photogenic wedges, visible from miles away, out in open fields where they hurt no one), and you pretty much have to go to the Plains to see that on a fairly regular basis. However, there is just as much, perhaps more, need for "ground truth" observations in areas chasers prefer to avoid (e.g. Dixie Alley) as in the Plains. That's where local spotters can fill in the gaps.

Maybe this is already being done, but one possible solution to the "chaser hordes" dilemma might be to start steering young or new weather enthusiasts toward local storm spotting rather than chasing per se. Teach them to study and observe the weather in their own backyard and make reports to their local NWS, etc., before they even consider taking up chasing.
 
This video was sent to me via PM. It shows a trooper blocking the road at Hwy 81 and Jensen Rd which is the next road north of Reuters. So apparently they did have Hwy 81 south blocked at multiple intersections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xogTSl5SoVs


We also put together a time line for our chase using time stamps from pictures, GPS and the official NWS track. We had 7 minutes to go 1 mile south on Hwy 81 before the outer area of the tornado ever reached hwy 81. Before messing around at the intersection with the cop and advancing slowly east down a gravel road and between the storm acceleration and growing in size we only had 2 minutes to get 1.5 miles south to get below the tornado. At this point we should have gone north and ate the hail but hindsight is 20/20. In the end though, had the cop not blocked the road we would have had way more than enough time to drop south safely and it isn't even close.
 
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