The events leading up to the traffic Jam in SW OKC on May 31st 2013

[Brandon Clement]

More than likely the trooper got hit. The tornado at this point was only about a half mile away. If he didnt get hit he got amazingly lucky. Either way it would have been foolish.

If he didnt get hit he probably realized how wrong he was and escaped south on 81 since nobody blocked him.

This pic is from Eric Perozo. He was chasing with us and made it out ok. Keep in mind this was on a road going due east from hwy 81.

This pic was taken out the passenger window of my car about the same time. At this point we were prepping for the worst. We tried to drop south on a gravel road that turned to clay and we couldnt get through it fast enough.those two minutes between the time we were trying to drop south on 81 and this pic the tornado went from multi vortex to wedge.

 

[Derek Weston]

When you reached the roadblock why did anybody have to go back north and back toward the path of the tornado? Why not just stop there and wait for it to pass north of your position?

If it was because you were worried that the tornado might catch you at the blocked intersection, surely you wouldn't expect the trooper to sit there and let the tornado hit him rather than let you pass.

Perhaps.

To counter that thought, however...

Seeing the cop sitting there blocking traffic as it were, you'd have to reason he doesn't know what the hell is going on. . . so yes, he may have put himself in grave danger.. and the line of cars backed up waiting to get through. Add to that... imagine there is a bit of a psychological barrier to contend with here. Cop is an authority figure, split second decisions are being made and I imagine people would tend to see a blocked road and to move on immediately. Especially if there was some chance to stay away from the tornado as it were. (and apparently there were eastward options, but they were poor, and the margin for error thusly narrowed quite a bit)

And even if you could've waited it out by the cop -- should you have had to? The cop blocking the road helped to contribute to poor decision making, and perhaps lives being lost.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Perhaps.

To counter that thought, however...

Seeing the cop sitting there blocking traffic as it were, you'd have to reason he doesn't know what the hell is going on. . . so yes, he may have put himself in grave danger.. and the line of cars backed up waiting to get through. Add to that... imagine there is a bit of a psychological barrier to contend with here. Cop is an authority figure, split second decisions are being made and I imagine people would tend to see a blocked road and to move on immediately. Especially if there was some chance to stay away from the tornado as it were. (and apparently there were eastward options, but they were poor, and the margin for error thusly narrowed quite a bit)

And even if you could've waited it out by the cop -- should you have had to? The cop blocking the road helped to contribute to poor decision making, and perhaps lives being lost.

No psychological barrier for us. At this stage of the game he was simply a road block to life. Eric tried to go around him but he pulled forward and blocked them. I tried to behind him and he pulled back. I could have gotten out and explained to him but it would have been suicide.

 

[Jake Orosi]

More than likely the trooper got hit. The tornado at this point was only about a half mile away.

This doesn't make sense to me, probably because I'm getting mixed signals.

Let's establish the circumstances. I'll tell you what I've picked up from the various threads, and you tell me which of these circumstances is in error.

1: A number of chasers needed to quickly flee because the tornado suddenly shifted from a mostly eastern track to a sharply northeasterly one.

2: Those chasers who got hit, were generally all to the north of the tornado because in the HP environment that was the safest and best vantage point, and were taken by surprise and trapped by the tornado which unexpectedly turned and came straight at them.

3: This highway 81 is a straight north-south road with few paved intersecting west-east roads.

4: People trying to escape to the south from the northward-moving tornado were prevented from escaping by a blocked road, and so had to turn back north.

5: The tornado was half a mile away when this block was encountered, and the blocked intersection was in all likelihood hit by the tornado.

One or more of these simply has to be incorrect. We know it's not 1 or 3, because the NWS has verified the sharp NE turn, and anyone with Google Maps can see that 81 is north-south. So it's got to be 2, 4, or 5.

See this is the problem: I'm spatially recreating the scenario in my head, but I see so many obvious issues:

1: There's a tornado coming at me from the southwest, but I am traveling south, TOWARDS the point of the road that the tornado is on track to cross (the intersection with the trooper who was most likely hit, according to 5). Why am I trying to escape to the south from a tornado that's already south of me and heading in my direction? Even if there was no trooper, your escape route crossed through the tornado's path - it's like trying to race a freight train to the railroad crossing and is just insane. The most obvious proper escape route is directly north. It seems to me that everybody who ran into the trooper and was forced to turn around went exactly the wrong way. They were trying to get away from the tornado by driving towards it. That does not make sense.

2: Even allowing for the "quick decision/fog of battle/adrenaline" error level, why did people continue going south and only turn around when they were forced to, despite the fact that by that point the tornado had managed to close to within a half mile? Surely peoples' adrenaline response didn't make them not see that the tornado was getting closer and closer the further south on 81 they got.

There's much of this situation as relayed in sporadic reports that doesn't gel. Maybe if more people who were there could describe the whole scenario as best they can remember, we can pull a consistent narrative of the events out of it all. It would help immensely in figuring out what exactly went wrong.

 

[STexan]

I suspect that at some point, somebody thought a tornado was drawing a bead on Minco or Pocasett and relayed this to OHP in that sector to halt traffic going South from 40 on 81. This was a very volatile and fluid situation and was actively reported as such. I'm not prepared to fault the OHP officer who halted traffic from going south on 81. I suspect he was doing what he was told to do by "someone". But if a chaser with live and current radar wants to go South to avoid being killed, you have to respect the technology and experience that I doubt the OHP onsite had.

 

[Derek Weston]

If you paste the kmz file (path for tornado) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20130531/gis/ElrenoYukon-path.kmz

into google maps: maps.google.com

You can see the plotted path atop the google street map.

If that's accurate... the tornado started to go NE right at highway 81. (rather than right before, if I'm understanding NWS graphic correctly)

So I'm not sure how to piece all of this together. If the map plot above is correct... could be conceivable that people out in front of the tornado would've wanted to dive south to get out of its path as it was moving slightly south of east as it approached 81. That said... continuing east would have put you in the clear.

I did read that supposedly one of the storm chasing victims' automobile was found on South Radio st. I don't know if this is correct, however. This would support the thought that people were playing the notch and got in trouble when the storm moved at them after crossing 81.

 

[Jake Orosi]

If you paste the kml file (NWS path for tornado) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20130531/gis/ElrenoYukon-path.kmz

into google maps: maps.google.com

You can see the plotted path atop the google street map.

If that's accurate... the tornado started to go NE right at highway 81. (rather than right before, if I'm understanding NWS graphic correctly)

So I'm not sure how to piece all of this together. If the map plot above is correct... could be conceivable that people out in front of the tornado would've wanted to dive south to get out of its path as it was moving slightly south of east as it approached 81. That said... continuing east would have put you in the clear.

I did read that supposedly one of the storm chasing victims' automobile was found on South Radio st. I don't know if this is correct, however. This would support the thought that people were playing the notch and got in trouble when the storm moved at them after crossing 81.

OK thanks, I see. Neat.

I take it that SW 15th Street was the roadblocked intersection?

All right, so if the tornado didn't do it's sudden shift until it hit 81, then the people traveling south on 81 before the tornado got there, still thought they were dealing with a west-to-east-tracking tornado. But then, again and perhaps even moreso in that case, why were they trying to escape the tornado by driving towards its anticipated path? It only makes sense if they were trying to intercept the tornado, not escape it.

 

[STexan]

Nobody anticipated the track would continue SE for long, and given the hail and massive rain to the north and West, an immediate south retreat and regroup was a reasonable choice. It is a natural response for any chaser to try and get South and east of ANY complex ASAP for both safety and vantage point. Every minute spent heading east was one minute closer to getting out of position, or run over if an accident or otherwise roadblocked situation was encountered, one or the other.

 

[Brandon Clement]

This doesn't make sense to me, probably because I'm getting mixed signals.

Let's establish the circumstances. I'll tell you what I've picked up from the various threads, and you tell me which of these circumstances is in error.

1: A number of chasers needed to quickly flee because the tornado suddenly shifted from a mostly eastern track to a sharply northeasterly one.

2: Those chasers who got hit, were generally all to the north of the tornado because in the HP environment that was the safest and best vantage point, and were taken by surprise and trapped by the tornado which unexpectedly turned and came straight at them.

3: This highway 81 is a straight north-south road with few paved intersecting west-east roads.

4: People trying to escape to the south from the northward-moving tornado were prevented from escaping by a blocked road, and so had to turn back north.

5: The tornado was half a mile away when this block was encountered, and the blocked intersection was in all likelihood hit by the tornado.

One or more of these simply has to be incorrect. We know it's not 1 or 3, because the NWS has verified the sharp NE turn, and anyone with Google Maps can see that 81 is north-south. So it's got to be 2, 4, or 5.

See this is the problem: I'm spatially recreating the scenario in my head, but I see so many obvious issues:

1: There's a tornado coming at me from the southwest, but I am traveling south, TOWARDS the point of the road that the tornado is on track to cross (the intersection with the trooper who was most likely hit, according to 5). Why am I trying to escape to the south from a tornado that's already south of me and heading in my direction? Even if there was no trooper, your escape route crossed through the tornado's path - it's like trying to race a freight train to the railroad crossing and is just insane. The most obvious proper escape route is directly north. It seems to me that everybody who ran into the trooper and was forced to turn around went exactly the wrong way. They were trying to get away from the tornado by driving towards it. That does not make sense.

2: Even allowing for the "quick decision/fog of battle/adrenaline" error level, why did people continue going south and only turn around when they were forced to, despite the fact that by that point the tornado had managed to close to within a half mile? Surely peoples' adrenaline response didn't make them not see that the tornado was getting closer and closer the further south on 81 they got.

There's much of this situation as relayed in sporadic reports that doesn't gel. Maybe if more people who were there could describe the whole scenario as best they can remember, we can pull a consistent narrative of the events out of it all. It would help immensely in figuring out what exactly went wrong.

Come on man, I've been chasing for 14 years and at no point ever got near this situation. I'm also used to chasing in the trees and hills of Mississippi with tornadoes that are moving at 55-65 mph. First, we were headed east when we came to the intersection at Hwy 81 (not south) we tried to take a right and go south on 81. The tornado did take a hard turn to the NE and picked up forward motion as it began rotating around the wall. This happened just before reaching hwy 81. It isn't uncommon to see a tornado do this. It also expanded in size very rapidly at this time adding another element of danger and something that isn't as common. In all but a few cases such as Jarrell, Tx or Oakfield, Wi the best way to escape a tornado is heading SE. If you are east northeast of a tornado with extreme mid level lapse rates and instability then driving north isn't a good option.

You can't drive through hail like that and disabling the vehicle in a tornadoes path isn't very smart. And yes, that picture was from the storm near I-40 in El Reno.

At a forward motion of 30 mph the storm is moving a mile every two minutes. We spent almost a minute stopping trying to get by the trooper then proceeding east.

As for driving in front of a tornadoes path, it isn't a very good option but when the only paved road in the area goes south and a tornado that changed direction, increased in size and speed is on your 6 then bailing south on a paved road is brilliant.

 

[Derek Weston]

OK thanks, I see. Neat.

I take it that SW 15th Street was the roadblocked intersection?

All right, so if the tornado didn't do it's sudden shift until it hit 81, then the people traveling south on 81 before the tornado got there, still thought they were dealing with a west-to-east-tracking tornado. But then, again and perhaps even moreso in that case, why were they trying to escape the tornado by driving towards its anticipated path? It only makes sense if they were trying to intercept the tornado, not escape it.

Depends how far north they were.

If the tornado was right behind (or a tad north) then they would be going to want to bail south if they were choosing to get out of its path. Perhaps that is where they ran into the cop.

This would jive with Brandon's story of the cop being in the path and the south option not working because of said cop.

This assumes they weren't very far north -- if at all -- of the cop to begin with... if they were, I'd agree with you, that'd be an odd move, trying to beat it south...

If I had to guess... the cop was probably just on the edge of the path to the south, the people were parallel or just barely north of cop... making south escape seem reasonable if they had a good bit of space between them and tornado. (such that a turn south would be obviously safe) Cop blocked, people kept busting east and worried about out-running eastward moving tornado on crappy roads... thankfully though... they were out of harms way when tornado pushed NE.

That's my best guess.

 

[Joshua Nall]

I think you have some things confused still. It's mostly speculation at this point. Generally though, folks try to get south of an oncoming tornado, especially if they have no hail protection and they are less experienced... There is a lot of hail up close to the meso, in the vault area and rfd wrap. What they will do is sit and wait and wait, might even move east and stop again, then bail south when it gets close. Some experienced chasers just try to stay in the notch as long as possible and they might then let the tornado pass to their south if they are unable to keep pace. Setting up to where the tornado passes south is one of my favorite things to do... but then I don't often do it because I'm a scaredy cat. There is not enough info at this point to be so critical. What is the point with it anyway. Everyone is free to make their own decisions. Anyone can sit back with limited info and say should have done this or that.

Edit... this was in reply to Jake Orosi. I see others have posted since I submitted this.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Come on man, I've been chasing for 14 years and at no point ever got near this situation. I'm also used to chasing in the trees and hills of Mississippi with tornadoes that are moving at 55-65 mph. First, we were headed east when we came to the intersection at Hwy 81 (not south) we tried to take a right and go south on 81. The tornado did take a hard turn to the NE and picked up forward motion as it began rotating around the wall. This happened just before reaching hwy 81. It isn't uncommon to see a tornado do this.

So then the people who were north of the tornado (the ones who got surprised) were simply not in a good position no matter what happened where. Hail to the north, a tornado to the south, where do you go?

Looking at the tornado track as provided by the NWS, it seems in hindsight that anyone would've only had to drive north on 81 for three minutes or so and they would've been safe if they'd then stopped but stayed on 81. The way it looks on the map, traveling east from 81 at just about any point prolonged the time any particular driver was in danger. But I understand that might not have been intuitive at the time and would've been one heck of a gamble to make.

 

[Jake Orosi]

There is not enough info at this point to be so critical. What is the point with it anyway. Everyone is free to make their own decisions. Anyone can sit back with limited info and say should have done this or that.

I don't know if maybe it hasn't been all that evident to other people here, but some specific people died, and the blame is being pinned on other specific people, possibly unfairly. I don't think it's really OK to just let that happen in a situation where so little is even known about what actually happened when and where. At the risk of being hyperbolic: if we're willing to put people "on trial" here for what amounts to negligent homicide, the least we can do is pretend it's a fair one.

 

[Brandon Clement]

OK thanks, I see. Neat.

I take it that SW 15th Street was the roadblocked intersection?

All right, so if the tornado didn't do it's sudden shift until it hit 81, then the people traveling south on 81 before the tornado got there, still thought they were dealing with a west-to-east-tracking tornado. But then, again and perhaps even moreso in that case, why were they trying to escape the tornado by driving towards its anticipated path? It only makes sense if they were trying to intercept the tornado, not escape it.

The intersection was Reuters Road West and Hwy 81. We were hit on South Radio Road. I shouldn't have turned south on S Radio and should have continued east on Reuters but hindsight is 20/20. When I turned I was looking at a row of taillights in front of me, couldn't get above 35 mph because of the road conditions and had no idea South Radio turned to mostly clay. Eric continued east on Reuters and managed to get south on Banner which is paved to SW 15th and made it out.

I don't know if maybe it hasn't been all that evident to other people here, but some specific people died, and the blame is being pinned on other specific people, possibly unfairly. I don't think it's really OK to just let that happen in a situation where so little is even known about what actually happened when and where. At the risk of being hyperbolic: if we're willing to put people "on trial" here for what amounts to negligent homicide, the least we can do is pretend it's a fair one.

I'm not blaming anyone for the deaths since I have no idea if they were impacted by the OHP trooper. I do know for me, it was a difference. I'm not asking anyone to just trust me on the whole situation but at least give me the benefit of the doubt when saying dropping south on HWY 81 would have been an easy out. I'm not pretending to be nearly as good or have near the knowledge of some of the other chasers that got caught in this but I do have enough experience to realize when things turned really ugly.

 

[Derek Weston]

The intersection was Reuters Road West and Hwy 81. We were hit on South Radio Road. I shouldn't have turned south on S Radio and should have continued east on Reuters but hindsight is 20/20. When I turned I was looking at a row of taillights in front of me, couldn't get above 35 mph because of the road conditions and had no idea South Radio turned to mostly clay. Eric continued east on Reuters and managed to get south on Banner which is paved to SW 15th and made it out.

Just trying to piece things together here... (not picking on you at all)

So from your vantage point you were looking back SW at the storm from up on Reuters, right? Were there many behind you on Reuters?

Seems as though it was near the intersection of south radio and reuters that some bad things happened. And it seems they happened because of slow traffic trying to get east. And its seems people were NE to begin with because that position affords a view back into the notch, if I had to guess. (common on HP storm)