The cap

[Chris Lott]

I hope someone can help me with this one, because this drives me crazy. So far this season, there have been at least a couple of times here in Texas where I think chase potential would have been very good had it not been for the cap. What causes the cap to persist over our area and why is it so hard to break. I've seen days already when we hit temps in the upper 80's, and still we can't break the cap. Is it just a curse on me? All answers are greatly appreciated.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If you are referring to some of the other chasing setups we've had so far this year (3/12, 3/30, etc)... I think of lot of busts lie in the fact that many of the jet streaks associated with the strong systems aloft have been primarily north of Texas. With this, most vorticity maxima have slid to the north, meaning that DPVA (and upward motion from DPVA) has slid north as well. Being on the 'warm side' of the jet usually isn't ideal, since you are farther removed from cooler mid- and upper-level temps. With the surface lows way up in NE (or near there), associated dryline bulges have been primarily in KS and northern KS, resulting in a NE-SW dryline orientation south of I40, which tends to result in weaker surface convergence (assuming sfc winds bheind dryline are sw). Just some possibilities.

 

[Chris Lott]

Thanks Jeff, your replies help me alot. It seems though on a few occasions where things would come together, (descent CAPE values, high srh values, descent shear,) but the cap persists. Like you said, it doesn't help with the center of these powerful systems well to our north. One day I'll make it north to chase and it will explode in Texas! :lol:

 

[Brandon Clement]

Another reason that the cap is going to be a problem this year is the drought over west Tx will limit evapotransportation. I would think that this would do two things. Cause the dry line to push farther East before initiation begins and increase temps in the mid layers (cap) making it tougher to break.

There has also been a lack of forcing or lifting mechanisms in your area so far this year since the low pressure systems have been deepening over the Ne, N. Ks area causing the shortwaves to kick out over Iowa, Missouri, Ar and the dryline setting up to your north and east.

Hopefully this is not a long term trend and come May we can get some classic West Tx set ups with slow moving, monster sups firing on the dryline. Keep in mind that most years the good severe weather doesn't really get going until late April-early May so don't get down just yet.

I am not a pro so if I am wrong feel free to correct me.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

If you are referring to some of the other chasing setups we've had so far this year (3/12, 3/30, etc)... I think of lot of busts lie in the fact that many of the jet streaks associated with the strong systems aloft have been primarily north of Texas. With this, most vorticity maxima have slid to the north, meaning that DPVA (and upward motion from DPVA) has slid north as well. Being on the 'warm side' of the jet usually isn't ideal, since you are farther removed from cooler mid- and upper-level temps. With the surface lows way up in NE (or near there), associated dryline bulges have been primarily in KS and northern KS, resulting in a NE-SW dryline orientation south of I40, which tends to result in weaker surface convergence (assuming sfc winds bheind dryline are sw). Just some possibilities.
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This is also the main reason why the North Texas area has been experiencing a multi year drought in large scale severe weather/tornado episodes. North Texas is DUE!!!!