TD #4

[Matthew Crowther]

NHC just classifed the system in the far eastern Atlantic. Looks almost certain that a major hurricane will be taking a bullseye on the northern or maybe central Antilles in about 4-5 days, then watch out P.R. (got your tickets yet Jim?). Then the U.S. Mainland will see a threat eventually, the main impediment IMHO to a major hurricane hitting somewhere in the lower 48 will be potential interaction with Hispanola disrupting the circulation a la David in 1979.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

I thought that major hurricane was over 100 kt. NHC is only talking about 90 kt by 18/1800Z. Of course there is no guarantee that they won't be forecasting major hurricane in a new forecast what should come out in 3 hours.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Your right, 100kts is considered a major hurricane. Forecasts for 100kts are very rare when a system first develops especially way out in the eastern atlantic. You usually will not see rapid intensification unless the storm is in the Caribbean, just off the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico.