TC 22S (Jaya)

[Jose Garcia]

Hi to all...

This system has been developing rapidly over the past 24 hours with a compact core and good outflow specially on the western quadrant. The conditions are ideal for aditional strengthening with a good potential of rapid intensification as the 200mb conditions are expected to continue favorable. The latest estimates from SAB are of 3.5/55kts, ADT of CIMSS with 3.3 and JTWC with 45kts...

 

[Jose Garcia]

Hi to all...

TC22S is forecasted to hit Madagascar in roughly the same area that TC Indlala hit several weeks ago. The storm is now estimated to be at 90kts by JTWC with an earlier peak of 105kts. This seemed a little conservative given the impressive satellite appearance late on the 31st when SAB gave it a 6.0/115kts which seemed to be more in line with what the storm looked like.
In fact, RSMC La Reunion (MFR) gave it 6.0 in their sat estimates with 100kts (10-min) winds. At this time the estimates from SAB are of 5.5/102kts. The storm have been weakening and the forecast is of moderate weakening by JTWC prior to landfall and of almost steady intensity with slight weakening by MFR...