Potential TC development NW of Fiji

[Jose Garcia]

Hi to all...

We're about to come back to bussiness with a TC developing just NW of Fiji. The convection has increased markedly over the past 12 hours and a well defined circulation is evident on the latest Quikscat pass. Also the system is showing quite a nice banding structure and low-level convergence has improved, JTWC just mentioned this system but has'nt issue any TCFA. The 200mb conditions are quite favorable over the system with an anticyclone develping over the LLCC creating good divergence aloft. These conditions rapidly deteriorate south of 20S were the wind shear is above 60kts according to the latest CIMSS analysis (12Z), at the moment this only helps to further enhance the outflow on the south quadrant of the system. If the present trend continues we shoud have a tropical storm before too long.

 

[Jose Garcia]

This system keeps organizing and SAB now assigns it 1.0, RSMC Fiji has it as a tropical depression and JTWC is'nt even issuing a TCFA. The latest quikscat pass shows numerous 40kts+ vectors in the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation. The 200mb winds continue marginally favorable with good outflow in every quadrant except the SW, the convection is very deep and the center seems to be below it, not quite in the middle of it though. I think this system could very well now be a TC and as many times happens, everyone is sleeping on it.

 

[Jose Garcia]

SAB came up to 2.5 estimates at 233Z. Again both agencies (Fiji and JTWC) did'nt come with higher estimates than TD and TCFA respectively. Its not the first time this happens.