Target Area for 4/30/2014

[Ty Traphagen]

I'm pretty new here, so I didn't want to post in the actual "Target Area" part of the forum. Anyway, does anybody else have a target area picked for tomorrow, 4/30/14? As of right now, we have a "slight risk" here in the Carolinas, and the SPC is saying that they're forecasting CAPE values of over 2000 j/Kg, and shear profiles favor rotating updrafts in NE GA and the coastal Carolinas. So, I'm thinking about targeting Orangeburg, SC, as it's less urban there than in Charleston, and for some reason, it just feels like the right place to be tomorrow. It's about an hour from Charleston, so it's not that far out of the way, but if it seems just as likely that I'll see a tornado closer to Charleston, I won't waste my gas going way out there. Just looking to hear some other people's opinions/target areas, so maybe I'll get a clearer idea of what to expect.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I can't do any better than SPC discussion on Wednesday severe forecasting (or even come close), but I'm virtual chasing it tomorrow and these are my thoughts so far—

Chase Target: Newington, Georgia

A surface low is forecast to elongate over Wisconsin and Ohio with a cold front draping through eastern Tennessee through the Florida panhandle and migrating slowly eastward. The upper low will be over Iowa with 70 kt 500 mb flow flow aligned over cold front with 35-40 kts extending out over the warm sector to the east leading to 35-40 kts of bulk shear in that area.

Dewpoints from 65-70 will be in place from Florida through east Virginia. NAM and GFS paint different pictures of early convection/cloud cover/surface heating and subsequent CAPE values. If GFS pans out, 2000 j/kg CAPE will build from the Florida panhandle through central Georgia and South Carolina. If NAM pans out, some smaller pockets of 2000 j/kg will build along coastal Georgia/far south South Carolina. RAP so far looks like it's splitting the difference between NAM and GFS on the situation.
00Z NAM paints large pockets of 100-150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH through central Georgia and more broadly north of there, reaching over 200 m2/s2 from western North Carolina and Virginia.

Timing of the convection is variable across the models, could take the form discrete storms, a line, a broken line, a boggy mess. The best compromise of moderate CAPE, SRH, and bulk shear seems to be at the Georgia/South Carolina border close to the coast.

 

[Ty Traphagen]

If I had more money for gas and other expenses, I'd probably head down that way. But I'm pretty broke right now, so I'm trying to keep within an hour of Charleston. Hoping something pops up here.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Well, I'm definitely a stabilizing MCS magnet the last couple days. Options look better for severe weather further north away from the outflow and shady anvil helmet brewing over the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia. SPC has also gone ahead and amputated the southern extent of their earlier 10% tornado probabilities...and I imagine it's going to get nipped further at the next update.

 

[Ty Traphagen]

Well, so much for today's slight risk and 10% tornado probability. All we got was a bunch of rain and heavy thunderstorms here in Charleston in the morning.

 

[chrisbray]

Overnight convection really put a hamper on today's potential. Always a wildcard when you are not in the first day of the system. and something that is hard to predict with accuracy.

 

[calvinkaskey]

I almost got a tornado near Emporia Virginia. I used the forecast radar along with the weather channel's expert to make the decision. Also the dewpoints were very high.

 

[calvinkaskey]

west of emporia Virginia is very sparsely populated. I would almost bet money they had a tornado but I couldn't see the bottom of the storm with low hills and trees but a large area of updraft denoted by fingers on the backside of the t-storm. It weakened by the time I could see it.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

I caught the southern VA storm near Jarratt. Aside from a non-rotating wall cloud along with an inflow tail, it didn't look terribly impressive. There was a public report of a funnel cloud southwest of Jarratt. There was weak circulation on radar, but at no point did it look like there was a good tornadic signature.

Here's the wall cloud I mentioned: https://twitter.com/markellinwood/status/461662629983821824

Southern VA/northern NC was my target area for the day. NC stuff went to crap early, so I stayed in VA and was fortunate enough to be on what some might call the storm of the day. This all should probably be in a separate reports thread, but I'm not going to start one for just one post about a wall cloud.

 

[Ty Traphagen]

Yeah, I just need to start putting money aside so I can actually choose a target area, and drive to the target area in advance of storms firing. Not having money to pay for gas kinda put a damper on things before they even started. But congrats on chasing the storms up in VA, guys! Glad to see some people lucked out!