Storms and Storm Chasing in the Southeastern US

[Brandon Clement]

Being located in the south I can relate to a lot of what is said in this thread but I also have a different take that isn't mentioned.

My first trip to Kansas we were on this massive cell outside of Concordia, Ks. While chasing we had a local radio station on and they were basically covering the event in real time. This massive rotating wall cloud was not tornado warned because the NWS knew 100% for a fact it was not producing a tornado. The second a funnel started lowering a tornado warning went out and the guy on the radio reported the funnel in real time. It was almost like he was a color analist giving a play by play from the 50 yardline of this cell. Their must have been a thousand chasers out on this storm and some of the streets looked like a parade with cars parked up and down each side. The cell had a huge hail core, a big dry slot and very defined wall the entire time. This was also visible for many miles. I was extremely impressed with the amount of chasers, the structure of the storm and the coordination between chasers, spotter, the NWS and the public. The storm that day was moving about 25mph.


Fast forward to chasing in the south. I was sitting in Greenville, Ms about 2pm when the first cell was chugging along and became tor warned in N. La about to cross over into Ar. We positioned for an intercept just west of Lake Village, Ar and there was a sheriff and a couple volunteer fire guys spotting from the lone intersection for 15 miles. The storm came over and did not have a tornado down but had been warned for an hour. However, it did have a wall cloud with rapid rotation and easily the best structure I have ever seen in the south. We watched the storm until it moved a few miles to the north before rerouting to try and catch it on the other side of the river. The radio station had good solid reports and knew exactly what was going on with it as it moved north of Greenville. When I crossed the river I was flying up the delta through these mostly empty highways and never could catch up to it even though I could see just about everything from the trailing position. We finally gave up when we hit the trees in central Ms because we couldn't catch it, it was getting dark and the trees would likely obstruct our view. At this point it had moved through about 9 counties with a tornado warning on it and was warned for several straight hours. The only tornado report from the storm was uncomfirmed with no damage, likely a sherifnado in far SE Ar.

This storm was moving 60mph, 150 miles from the nearest big city and on the edge of 3 television viewing areas. NWS in Shreveport, Jackson, Little Rock and Memphis all issued warnings and likely had no idea what was happening on the ground for 95% of its span. Once it got in the trees in central Ms nobody knows what is going on. Spotters have to get extremely lucky and just happen to be in the right place at the right time. There were well over 1000 tornado warnings issued for this outbreak yet there were 70 reported tornadoes, many of these we are finding out were long tracked tornadoes and multiple reports for the same tornado. This means the NWS is getting 4-6% of the warnings right and this was on a historic outbreak were the storms were actually producing tornadoes.

I read somewhere that the national average the NWS was batting 10% but on the plains and the caprock area it is much higher because eyes and ears are on the ground. In the south it is probrably between 1-4% because they issue tornado warnings for every storm that shows weak rotation. In the south storms are usually moving much faster, they happen more often than not at night or very late evening, the terrain consists of trees and hills so it is common to be a half mile from a major tornado and you would simply never know it. In Ms it seems like we get as many tornado warnings between 10pm and 6am as we do the rest of the day combined. So now you have weather radios that are going off non stop in the middle of the night, they are wrong 96% of the time, 95% of the time they are going off because of warning in another county, 75% of the time when they go off and it is for the county you actually live in the storm is in part of the county that doesn't impact you and this doesn't even take into consideration severe thunderstorm warnings, flash flood watches, severe thunderstorm watches, flast flood warnings and other NWS warnings.

So if you have a weather radio that goes off in the middle of the night several times a month and it was only right about tornadoes in your area about .005% of the time would you keep it on? Of course most of us would and most of us would not because we are scared but instead curious. The average person isn't going to sacrifice a night of sleep when they hear 1000 tornado warnings without ever having a tornado impact their general area.

It may sound like I'm bashing the NWS but I'm not. It is simply a catch 22. If they don't issue the warning and a tornado does hit then more people may die as a result and they look bad on national television. I have seen some pretty weak couplets produce a tornado in the south. The killer tornado in Alabama this past week is a perfect example, it had a good solid couplet for two or three frames but the radar image wasn't that exciting yet it put down a EF-3 killing several people.

In the south storms are usually rain wrapped, not visible because of tall trees combined with low LCL's, embedded supercells, at night and moving fast. The NWS doesn't have the eyes on the ground and has know idea what is really happening, many of the storms aren't classic looking on radar and if it wasn't for velocity scans it would be impossible to determine which storms are rotating. They have to blow the horn everytime something starts showing signs of rotation and they are wrong so often that people ignore the warnings. Tornado warnings during a squall line is nothing uncommon here so even I turn the radio off when I go to sleep as a squall line is approaching.

If someone has the actual statistics of the number of warnings compared to verified tornadoes I am willing to bet central Ms is somewhere around the 3% mark at best and it is at least three times lower than the national average. Again, to no fault of the NWS.

Let me ask you this. If there was a high risk day in Kansas that produced 50+ tornadoes and a lot of people were out chasing how many videos and pics of tornadoes would you expect to see that night? Notice nobody has a good video of any of these tornadoes? Some have bried video sightings but for the most part most people struck out, myself included. Do you think this would have happened outside of Childress or Wichita?

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I have to agree with you almost 100% Brandon. The chasing and spotting of a tornado in this part of the country is tough.
But as far as the weather radios go, I have been using the newer type S.A.M.E. radios since they first came out. This has virtually eliminated the "aggravating" broadcast we were all use to before. But there again, people must have them and use them before they will do any good.

 

[Rich Thompson]

Brandon,

I believe the national false alarm rate for tornado warnings is ~75% for counties. I've only seen statistics for Jackson MS for one year several years back, when 11 tornadoes occurred and 99 warnings were issued (these numbers might be off a little). The JAN probability of detection was 100%, but the false alarm rate was 89%. Or, only 11% of their tornado warnings were accompanied by a tornado report somewhere in the county. We'll have to see how that changes with the polygon warnings.

Terrain, vegetation, visibility and storm motion all conspire against consistent spotter reports east of the Plains. Still, the radar signatures are often pretty impressive in the more serious events, much like what we saw Tuesday evening. The state of the art suggests that we'll have a tough time lowering the false alarm rate below about 50%, and I doubt you'll see that as long as the political pressure falls on NWS offices to not miss *any* events. That one KS chase aside, the false alarm rate in the Plains is not massively lower than the Mississippi valley region.

Rich T.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Brandon,

I believe the national false alarm rate for tornado warnings is ~75% for counties. I've only seen statistics for Jackson MS for one year several years back, when 11 tornadoes occurred and 99 warnings were issued (these numbers might be off a little). The JAN probability of detection was 100%, but the false alarm rate was 89%. Or, only 11% of their tornado warnings were accompanied by a tornado report somewhere in the county. We'll have to see how that changes with the polygon warnings.

Terrain, vegetation, visibility and storm motion all conspire against consistent spotter reports east of the Plains. Still, the radar signatures are often pretty impressive in the more serious events, much like what we saw Tuesday evening. The state of the art suggests that we'll have a tough time lowering the false alarm rate below about 50%, and I doubt you'll see that as long as the political pressure falls on NWS offices to not miss *any* events. That one KS chase aside, the false alarm rate in the Plains is not massively lower than the Mississippi valley region.

Rich T.

Thanks Rich, I wasn't sure the exact numbers because I can't find them anywhere. I did find where the national average has run between 70-80% nationally over the last couple decades. As I expected Jan runs about half of the national average. Again, I am not faulting them for the reasons already stated.

That one chase took place on May 29th so I understand it that isn't typical. I was just giving my impression of the first time in the plains and seeing just how coordinated things were. I realize that took place on Memorial Day weekend and there were literally thousands of chasers from all over the US and some from out of the country. Also it was a classic type high risk event.

No doubt that velocity signatures are usually pretty impressive with the high end tornadoes. However in the south a storm can look rather unimpressive on radar and one scan later have a strong couplet then be gone the next. Especially when we get warm fronts in the spring and on the east side of tropical events when we experience a lot of low topped sups that the plains don't see very often. In Ms it is rare to see an isolated flying eagle with a hook and debris notch with a perfect g2g couplet. Usually we have HP looking cells, low topped sups, embedded cells and broken bow type cells. As you know these don't last nearly as long and can put down a tornado one minute and be part of line the next. This also leads to a lot more false alarms. If you have an isolated rotating supercell that travels 100 miles it is likely it will put down a tornado somewhere along its path. In Ms if you have rotation for 5 minutes then a weak or linear looking cell the next you have to issue a warning just because of that one 5 minute scan. This could happen anywhere but it just happens more often in the south IMO.

 

[Dan Robinson]

FWIW any given supercell and tornado is no different in the south/midwest/northeast/west coast than it is in the Plains. Aside from the less cloudlocked dryline storm more likely to be in the Plains, there is no such a thing as a 'southern' supercell/tornado or 'midwestern' supercell/tornado as opposed to a 'Plains' supercell/tornado. An identical synoptic setup in the Plains will produce the same type of supercell and tornado as it will in the south. The supercells on Tuesday - and every other event east of the Mississippi that I've chased - had classic radar signatures matching and even rivaling Plains storms. The wall cloud/tornado/structure shots from Tuesday that I saw looked no different either. There was really no difference simply due to the state over which they were occuring.

The reason you don't see many photos/reports of non-Plains tornadoes is that few chasers are willing to give these events a try. That's partly because it's a long-distance trip for most, and partly due to the myth that chasing is so radically different east of the Mississippi. Maybe a little, but actually not by much. There are areas of trees and hills in the south, but it's not much different than eastern KS/OK and Missouri! Fast-moving storms and the lack of a caprock-like 1 mile road grid scares so many away, but all it takes is a change in strategy. But like I mentioned a year or so ago, more chasers are discovering the new chasing frontier outside of the Plains. The area IS chaseable and regularly gets chaseable setups. That is apparent due to the fact that this event may have been the most-chased out-of-season, non-Plains event in chasing history.

 

[Brandon Clement]

FWIW any given supercell and tornado is no different in the south/midwest/northeast/west coast than it is in the Plains. Aside from the less cloudlocked dryline storm more likely to be in the Plains, there is no such a thing as a 'southern' supercell/tornado or 'midwestern' supercell/tornado as opposed to a 'Plains' supercell/tornado. An identical synoptic setup in the Plains will produce the same type of supercell and tornado as it will in the south. The supercells on Tuesday - and every other event east of the Mississippi that I've chased - had classic radar signatures matching and even rivaling Plains storms. The wall cloud/tornado/structure shots from Tuesday that I saw looked no different either. There was really no difference simply due to the state over which they were occuring.

The reason you don't see many photos/reports of non-Plains tornadoes is that few chasers are willing to give these events a try. That's partly because it's a long-distance trip for most, and partly due to the myth that chasing is so radically different east of the Mississippi. Maybe a little, but actually not by much. There are areas of trees and hills in the south, but it's not much different than eastern KS/OK and Missouri! Fast-moving storms and the lack of a caprock-like 1 mile road grid scares so many away, but all it takes is a change in strategy. But like I mentioned a year or so ago, more chasers are discovering the new chasing frontier outside of the Plains. The area IS chaseable and regularly gets chaseable setups. That is apparent due to the fact that this event may have been the most-chased out-of-season, non-Plains event in chasing history.

I have been saying how good the terrain in the Ms and Ar delta is for years. There is no denying it. This is why I specifically said cental Ms eastward. Try chasing between Natchez and Hattiesburg and let me know what you think. How about Winona and Starkville or from canton to Carthage or any point along I-55 to any point East of I-55.

Again, not arguing that the same setup in Ms will produce the same results as kansas. However, you don't see the same type of setups in the south as you do in Kansas often. We get 1, maybe 2 events in Ms that you can go sit in a target area and wait for a cap to erode. We get maybe 1 event a year in which a dryline is even involved. We get 1-2 events a year that a defined boundary is the focus of storm developement. Every few years we might get one triple point. The typical setup in Ms is when a big MCS is about to sweep through the area and a tornado watch goes up in case cells can fire out in front of the line, if an embedded cell shows rotation or a tail end charlie on a broken line. We also get some low topped cells that will form south of a weak fast moving warm front with scattered showers and thunderstorms. We also get some tropical systems that will produce outbreaks.

The types of setups differ greatly in different region. Southern Florida gets nearly as many tornadoes as any place on earth but the setups are normally quite different than the plains. Even in the plains you get many differnt setups. Their is no better place in the world to find a dryline supercell than the caprock and ok panhandle. You want a strong triple point? I bet you can find this in Northern Kansas and southern Nebraska at least a few times each year. There is no way anyone could deny that northeast Colorado and southern Florida differ greatly but both get a similar number of tornadoes each year.

I never said we don't get good classic supercells in Ms, we just don't see them nearly as often. I agree, this last outbreak the structure was incredible. In fact, I have had several mets and storm chasers say that the storm in SE Ar had the best structure they have seen in the south. I'm pretty sure the other southern chasers that were on the storm would agree. I have seen more tornadoes on my handful of trips to the plains than I have in a decade of chasing every tor warned storm in central Ms. I have been within a mile or two of probrably a dozen tornadoes in Ar, Ms, La and Al without ever seeing them because they were either rain wrapped or couldn't find a place to see them. The nearest thing to a terrain problem in the plains is a grain elevator in the way of a view and rarely do you worry about a tornado being rain wrapped. This doesn't even begin to factor in the percent of night time events in the south compared to the plains.

This event was probrably the most chased out of season non plains event in history, it was also a historic outbreak in which tornadoes hit a major metro area within 50 miles of most chasers target and yet nobody got a good video. Do you honestly think nobody would have got good video if this same event happened in Oklahoma City or Wichita?

 

[Dan Robinson]

True, but as I said, I think the only storm type that the Plains can nearly exclusivley claim is the high-plains dryline storm. I guess my point being that while there are some logistical differences to chasing the south/midwest, it's not nearly as bad as it's commonly made out to be.

I think the lack of video from Memphis was due to the relatively few chasers in and around that area. There were more than ever chasing in Memphis before, but I can count maybe 10 or 15 based on reports. Had Memphis had the density of chasers that OKC does, I do believe we'd be seeing some great footage based on what the TV networks were showing. Tony Laubach's vantage point and footage was quite good.

I think that 'east of the Mississippi' chasing is still in its infancy (only becoming 'noticed' by the masses in the last two to three years) and I agree there are small details that may be different than being in eastern Kansas. But having chased in the trees and hills of western MO and the trees of central and northern Alabama, I haven't seen a whole lot of difference as far as visibility goes. Western Kansas and the Texas caprock has them all beat of course, but sometimes a setup will go into the jungles even in the Plains. At that point you've got a very similar road network and visibility issue as you do in the south, but not detrimental enough to make chasing impossible.

 

[Paul Austin]

True, but as I said, I think the only storm type that the Plains can nearly exclusivley claim is the high-plains dryline storm. I guess my point being that while there are some logistical differences to chasing the south/midwest, but it's not nearly as bad as it's commonly made out to be.

You both make good points, but don't forget the proximity of small towns in the SE. When storms are racing at 50-60 mph and chasers face stops, slow traffic, and poor or confusing road options, things get very difficult...not impossible, but rather difficult. Sometimes it pays to stick as much as possible to interstates. You're right though. The SE is largely "undiscovered chase territory".

 

[Brett Adair]

I have chased just about every Central/North Alabama in the last few years. I have had pretty descent success here catching tornadoes. However, you MUSt know and/or study the road network prior to chasing. I take a look at the road infrastructure in my target area about two days prior to chasing given the poor terrain. There are areas of much better terrain in North Alabama and in Southwest Alabama where things flatten off a bit, but Central portions is full of trees and hilly terrain.

I'ev still caught tornadoes, softball sized hail, and many damaging wind events here. Hell, even a night time tornado back on 4/7/06 that scattered insulation about on my chase vehicle. Mississippi has terrain that is very similar to Alabama in retrospect to trees and I know that it's possible to chase there as well. I prefer to have a partner when chasing in these areas that can plan routes ahead of a cell given storm motion and projected path so we can have a game plan ahead of time. This doesn't always work given sometimes eratic storm mode but helps out in most cases. 2/5 was my first opportunity to chase in the MS Delta and it's VERY VERY similar to the southern plains. I would suggest more chasers visit the region if the event looks to be of a higher caliber given the potential chase territory there.

I recommend that you have a dash cam in this neck of the woods if you want to be sure to catch any action though. Storms move at a very fast pace around here and are sometimes hard to catch if you have to stop and setup video. It IS very possible though.