SPC Data & Model Checks

[Hannah.Taylor]

Is there a way to go back on the SPC website and look at the original convective outlooks and what was forecasted to happen and compare them to the data of what actually happened so you can better understand where you went wrong on your forecasting and what variables were missing?

Also is there a way to look at the past data/models on the SPC Mesonalysis page?

 

[Harlan U]

Is there a way to go back on the SPC website and look at the original convective outlooks and what was forecasted to happen and compare them to the data of what actually happened so you can better understand where you went wrong on your forecasting and what variables were missing?

Also is there a way to look at the past data/models on the SPC Mesonalysis page?

The SPC keeps an archive of its old convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, etc. with some verification maps as well at https://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/

There is also an experimental mesoscale analysis archive page which can be found at Archive SPC Mesoscale Analysis (HTML5 JavaScript Version)

The SPC's HREF archives its members' model runs, going back to 2017. Simply use the time/date selection in the upper left to view archived runs. SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 500 mb wind/height, ens mean

 

[Randy Zipser]

Is there a way to go back on the SPC website and look at the original convective outlooks and what was forecasted to happen and compare them to the data of what actually happened so you can better understand where you went wrong on your forecasting and what variables were missing?

Also is there a way to look at the past data/models on the SPC Mesonalysis page?

Hannah, if you are interested in chasing tropical systems this summer/fall, the National Hurricane Center also maintains a link similar to SPC's (see Harlan's post above): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/index.shtml

 

[J Miller]

Reading through this thread, I'm surprised people aren't really using Pivotal for models. I've used both COD and Pivotal, but the latter seems to have a lot more models and products available. Is there any reason to avoid Pivotal or something?

 

[John Farley]

There are a lot of people more knowledgeable than me about this, but Pivotal is my go-to site for models. It seems to have more models than other sites, and the graphics are better than some.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Reading through this thread, I'm surprised people aren't really using Pivotal for models. I've used both COD and Pivotal, but the latter seems to have a lot more models and products available. Is there any reason to avoid Pivotal or something?

I use Pivotal for models also, but per the OP this thread is specifically about how to access archived SPC outlooks and mesoanalysis.

To that end, in addition to the links above, you can go to the SPC Convective Outlooks page and at the bottom select a date in the past to pull up all the outlooks issued that day.

On the SPC Meso Discussions page and the Watches page, there are also fields at the bottom where you can select a past date. But that actually brings up a whole “Severe Weather Event” page for that day, with a whole bunch of stuff available from a list of links on the left of the page - storm reports, upper air charts, soundings, meso discussions, convective outlooks, and watches.

On a related note, I have often wished there was a post-mortem version of a convective outlook, explaining what happened (or didn’t happen) and why. There are verification graphics that plot storm reports against risk area, but no narrative explanation of deviations from forecast.

 

[gdlewen]

I use Pivotal for models also, but per the OP this thread is specifically about how to access archived SPC outlooks and mesoanalysis.

To that end, in addition to the links above, you can go to the SPC Convective Outlooks page and at the bottom select a date in the past to pull up all the outlooks issued that day.

On the SPC Meso Discussions page and the Watches page, there are also fields at the bottom where you can select a past date. But that actually brings up a whole “Severe Weather Event” page for that day, with a whole bunch of stuff available from a list of links on the left of the page - storm reports, upper air charts, soundings, meso discussions, convective outlooks, and watches.

On a related note, I have often wished there was a post-mortem version of a convective outlook, explaining what happened (or didn’t happen) and why. There are verification graphics that plot storm reports against risk area, but no narrative explanation of deviations from forecast.

I'm with those who would like to see the SPC forecasters post assessments of an event. I would not be surprised if those are internal and not posted publicly. (The NWS seems to get enough criticism that I can understand a reluctance to further expose themselves.)

For my post-analysis, I start with the link @JamesCaruso mentioned: Svr. Tstm. Events. (The pasted link points to 6/17/2025 because that's the last storm I was on.) But also, I am using MRMS more and more for post-analysis.