Chris Heater
EF3
ILX still going with their winter storm watch. Still no warning yet. Once they issue a warning it will increase my confidence greatly. The watch states 4 to 6" but the text forecast says 4 to 8". Which do I believe?
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rdale
EF5
A watch means a warning is 50% or more likely. A warning means 6" or more in 12 hours (or 8" in 24 hours.) So ILX says odds are at least 50% that you'll get 6+ inches in 12 hours.
The NDFD forecast is the "official" forecast for you, and it says 2-4 and 2-4 (so 4-8".)
The NDFD forecast is the "official" forecast for you, and it says 2-4 and 2-4 (so 4-8".)
Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Just believe what the models tell you..
Its like chasing spring stuff, Ive seen tornadoes without a tornado watch?
NWS sees the same things you see when you look at models, and they make their decisions off of them too.. Granted they do have a few more local/in house techniques, and case study events to go off of, but still.. Your confidence should be on the models, not the wwa's that are out.
rdale
EF5
Please insert smiley or something
...and extensive college education, followed up by dozens of hours of winter-specific training annually, plus other advantages that meteorologists use other than just spitting out what a model says...
Jason Bolt
I would believe 2-10". Seriously. Think about how hard it is to predict rain within a tenth of an inch. With snow, you now have moisture AND ratios to deal with. I would cut them a little slack, but that's just me. Our last two snows: 1-3" = 5. 1-3" = a dusting. Close enough for me.
Chris Heater
EF3
Good point Andrew 
On a side note, now under a winter storm warning here. 6 to 8" of snow expected with 15 to 25mph with higher gusts. Could be treacherous Thursday driving around
On a side note, now under a winter storm warning here. 6 to 8" of snow expected with 15 to 25mph with higher gusts. Could be treacherous Thursday driving around
Joe Schaub
And ultimately, does it really matter? 4-6", or 4-8"? The roads are still gonna be a mess, you're still going to have to shovel your driveway, and the weather people on TV will tell us it snowed.
Lucky for me I have a snow blower
It's going to miserable out there tomarrow afternoon and night especially.
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