Sig Severe Wx for the N Plains late next week?

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I was taking a look at the 12z GFS and couldn't help, but notice what looks to be a very good setup in the N Plains next Fri-Sat possibly Sun as well. A negative tilted trough will eject into the Dakotas and S Canada as a S/SE LLj cranks into the region bringing deep moisture and perfectly backed surface winds. CAPE seems to be on the extreme side with all the models showing widespread 5000j/kg+ from C SD into ND and much of S Canada. I know it's a mile away at this point, but it has been showing this for a few runs now actually and I am quite interested especially because we haven't been up there this year. If it verifies we could see a multi-day outbreak of severe weather from S Canada south through the Dakotas and maybe into Nebraska and east into MN and IA.

This says it all.

 

[rdale]

This says it all.

Posting a 252hr graphic says it all without even looking

Any support from ensembles or non-GFS models?

 

[Trey Alvey]

From what I can tell the EURO has shown a fairly similar solution over the last few runs, and most of the GFS ensembles support at least a trough out west late next week. Obviously at this point it's too far out to determine amplitude and timing, and we'll just need to see if the models continue to depict this over the next several days.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yikes...you just know those outbreaks are gonna send big honkin MCS's eastward into Iowa and WI each night. Just what we in the soggy upper Midwest need...not.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Yikes...you just know those outbreaks are gonna send big honkin MCS's eastward into Iowa and WI each night. Just what we in the soggy upper Midwest need...not.

You talk as if we are going to have outbreaks of severe weather from this. I remember last year several days out the models were showing a insane severe weather outbreak and come chase day many chases busted because the few severe storms were to far west in E CO/W NE if I remember correctly. That is just a reminder nothing is final untill the day it happens.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Kind of reminds me of the MRF-icanes back in the days of the MRF model. Between April and October...it never failed. There was always a major tropical system off the coast of Florida at the end of nearly every model run.