When analyzing a shortwave, I assume it is going to be steered by upper level winds (correct me if I am wrong).....how do you judge or forcast the movment of this area of lift, both long range and short range? By the speed and direction of upper winds, or the use of models, or both?
Shortwave systems (and likewise longwave systems) do not behave like feathers in a stream (they aren't advected). Rather, they propagate.
Essentially, a shortwave trough is synonymous with a vorticity maximum. Vorticity is comprised of two components; shear vorticity and curvature vorticity.
Now, you can think of shear vorticity like the proverbial paddle wheel example. Say, for example that the winds are stronger aloft at Norman, Oklahoma than they are at Wichita, Kansas. If you put a large paddlewheel between the two locations, the paddlewheel will spin counterclockwise (or cyclonically). This is an example of cyclonic (positive) shear vorticity.
Curvature vorticity is essentially what you would see on a 500 mb map. The more curved a 500 mb trough is, the more curvature vorticity that is present.
These two components can add up together, or they can cancel each other out (i.e. positive shear vort and negative curvature vort).
Generally speaking, most shortwave troughs can not be seen as curvature vorticity maxima. They are most readily seen as a local maximum (jet max) in the ambient upper level flow. This is why jet maxima are nearly synonymous with shortwave troughs (except in the case of strong anticyclonic curvature).
The physical explanation for why differential positive vorticity advection (DPVA) leads to rising motion is a little complicated. But trust me, it works.
As far as determining the motion of shortwave troughs, two things need to be kept in mind: vorticity advection and temperature advection. It's a little too lengthy to get in depth on this forum, but for a general rule of thumb, shortwave troughs will propagate in the direction of greatest cyclonic (positive) vorticity advection/warm air advection. This isn't always true (see the quasi-geostrophic equations for further information), but it is most often the case.
Gabe