Severe Weather "Outbreak" next week..

[Brandon Sullivan]

Some impressive wording used in the 4-8 day outlook..

IN ASSOCIATION WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...SUFFICIENT ESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS

I have been seeing this in the GFS model runs for a few days.. Could be impressive.. Better gear up..

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Hmmmmmmm.......if it looks good enough then comes the decision. OU/Texas or Storm chase? If it looks good though, I think the decision will be easy.....DVR the game chase the storms.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I too, have been watching this with a very eager eye for about 4 days now, the evolution and track changed dramatically in the latest GFS run, Originally it looked to form right over the great lakes and track through the northeast. Now it appears to form over the plains and track into Canada.

Originally I was excited at a potential significant outbreak/chase closer to home, which is now no longer a reality, but if it appears significant enough, I may make the journey to the plains.

That SErn ridge just wont budge!

Time will tell.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Sunday 10/7 looks to me like it will be the BIG day....may get a dual threat on the cold core and Pacific front. The closed low should be emerging into the N/C Plains with some very good chase ops along and north of I-80. Need the GFS and Euro to settle down and lock into a solid forecast before getting too hyped.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

This is so much BS I know I shouldn't have booked the trip to Columbia for the Nebraska game, problem is its a night game and we'll go out after the game so no way I will be able to get everyone else up to make it back in time for Sunday even, since I booked it all its gonna be tough to back out but I'm watching closely and if really continues to look really good I might have to see what I can do to get out of going. Agree that Sunday looks good per the GFS especially in Northern NE into SD.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Arg... of course I have to take the physics gre on Saturday, which naturally means mother nature needs to tease me.

 

[David Schuttler]

I'll be in Branson for a mini-vacation , so of course it will be a good weekend event

 

[Craig Maire II]

I sure hope its on Saturday because I have to work a 12 hr shift on Friday at my new job

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Chase opportunities don't usually fall on such an opportune time for me. I've got a 3 day weekend sticking out at me like an eye sore. If some severe storms don't occur this weekend I'll be severely disappointed. I think I'm willing to go just about anywhere this time around. Canada anyone?

 

[Jim Bishop]

I was surprised to see such strong wording. Those are some pretty darn warm 850mb temperatures projected for both Friday and Saturday. Saturday could be interesting with much more upper support, but again the very warm 850mb temperatures worry me. Shear looks amazing though.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

And so the model roller coaster ride begins, tonights GFS run is much less progressive and keeps the trough West of the high plains through at least Sunday, its also more amplified and ejects farther south, tonight the TX panhandle up through W KS looks like money on Sunday. Wonder what the morning runs will bring, probably a Canada setup with the trough pushed through by Saturday!!!!

 

[John MacKay]

Go figure. This is the bone mother nature throws me for booking a 10-day vacation for friends and baseball during the omega block in May (came into KS the week after Greensburg, where I flew from Houston to Wichita with a 2006 graduate of Greensburg High next to me, who was in the Army).

I'll be touching down in KC Friday night then going to Manhattan for the KSU/KU football game at 11 AM Saturday. My flight back to Phoenix is not until Monday early morning.

If the chances get over to Eastern KS on Sunday, I'll be chasing it. Just remember to get the insurance on the rental car

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

WOW!! Still some impressive wording... Even 30 hatched coming out.. Im going to start a thready.. So anyone feel free to chime in over there..

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am liking Sunday the best for extreme NE Colorado, NW Kansas, and SW Nebraska for a cold core setup (if 12z GFS is on the mark)...it's getting into the timeframe to open up individual threads for each of the days coming up. It does look like significant severe wx is possible. Timing of the lead waves and the main closed low will be huge impacts if they can hit the warm sector during peak heating.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The evolution of this trough looks like crap on the NAM. Good thing the GFS looks better and has more of a chance at being correct(given NAM worth over a couple days out).