Questions, insights, more clarification specific forecasts

[Eric Flescher]

I appreciate reading the many forecasts by more seasoned or advanced forecasters. However certain parts of the readings make for (almost ) impossible understanding for novice, intermediate (and maybe advanced) chasers.

If you see a post that has something like the following and you don't know what it is, post it in this thread for clarification (along with the copy of that part you want clarified).

Some of these clarifications might include are

(1) Acronyms
(2) shortened terminology
(3) need for links to sites or more information
(4) forecasting links to tools or more information about the tools,websites etc
(5) hurried forecasting terminology, shortened words etc etc etc

Also if there are certain forecasts by chasers that are really outstanding and you really like because of the wording, clarity, use of English language (that novice chasers can understand) indicate what, when, where and why

Thanks for your time, consideration and understand about this.

 

[Eric Flescher]

CAP and 700 mb

Some information about CAP (nice visuals, good insight and well written easy to understand)
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/308/


700mb information by Jon Davies
http://www.jondavies.net/700mbTcap/700mbTcap.htm

I have also started posting these as an ongoing links on my blog in the forecasting section (left side of storm blog)

 

[Eric Flescher]

Michael O'Keeffe said
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?p=226316#post226316
“While 500mb winds may be a bit weak, we will have nice 850s and GREAT directional shear, with fairly large hodographs anywhere along the dryline”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodograph

Hodograph plot of upper air winds from radiosonde (Source: NOAA)

In meteorology, hodographs are used to plot winds from sounding of the Earth's atmosphere.
Meteorologists can calculate:

* Wind shear

* Turbulence

* Temperature advection

 

[Eric Flescher]

Bill Schintler writes
"LLVL": Low Level. SPC/NWS contractions - going back to teletype days where bandwidth was a premium, even for text. Here's a list of the more common ones:


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/acronyms.html

 

[Eric Flescher]

CAP information

I think this is valuable. I have been searching for a way to put together a template that I can use to summarize forecasts (does one exist already?).

this was good too as it was so visual

http://downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/guide07.html

This is a good start for a template which I will post someday. If someone things that there are other information that should be included in a template similar to what Fabian started here- please add
thanks
>>>>
Re : More and more I am liking the area n/nw of OKC, around Guthrie or Watonga. My main concern for now is the CAP but if it breaks, and it is a breakable cap, then we could be in for a good show. Of course we could end up sitting in the sunshine all day and see another nocturnal event or no event at all. That being said, some of the indicies on the nam forecast soundings for that general area are downright sweet:
LI: -7.8
SRH (1KM): 280.9
0-3km Helicity: 555.3
CAPE: 3809 j/kg
LCL: 680
EHI: 12.9
VGP: .80
STP: 7.6

Here is a link to the Guthrie, OK nam forecacast sounding for Tuesday (click on 60 hours):
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/par...STATIONID=kgok

As of now we are planning to leave Chicago tomorrow morning.

Best,
Fabian
__________________
His followup :
Fabian Guerra
Chicago, IL

1) On the left side of the Earl Barker New Skew-T page that I lnked in the thread you can click on the forecast hour you desire. This one goes out further than his other one. The link to the main page is: http://www.wxcaster.com/etaskewts.htm

2) I am not a met or by any means an expert at reading soundings but I know a little and enough to lead me to decent targets. You can find some of the basics here: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/skewt/

3) I loook at everything from the Hodo to the instability, shear, wind fields, CAP, CIn and everything else. Then I look again and again until I have a somewhat clear picture of a good target. I am not always right but every year my target picks get better and better.

I hope this helps.

Fabian

 

[Eric Flescher]

CAP, 700mb and hodograph

Some information about CAP (nice visuals, good insight and well written easy to understand)
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/308/


700mb information by Jon Davies
http://www.jondavies.net/700mbTcap/700mbTcap.htm

I have also started posting these as an ongoing links on my blog in the forecasting section (left side of storm blog)


Michael O'Keeffe said
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?p=226316#post226316
“While 500mb winds may be a bit weak, we will have nice 850s and GREAT directional shear, with fairly large hodographs anywhere along the drylineâ€￾

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodograph

 

[Eric Flescher]

what is a " bear's cage"?

Ëœbear's cage"

Here is a good definition.
http://weather.about.com/od/b/g/bearcage.htm

 

[Eric Flescher]

what is z time?

I am still confused about it but I think I am getting to get it . Here is more info

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/basic/ztime/