Predictions of the future of chasing

[rdale]

The thing I'd like to see is a radar that can complete a scan every minute as the standard. I think that's not only useful to chasers, but also to real-time warnings for the public. So much can change in a storm in 5 minutes, it's really too long to wait for the next scan. I don't think this will happen for maybe 20-30 years, though. Cost will be the biggest limiting factor.

Well actually the cost isn't a factor at all. It's the need to continue volume scans. In any case, between AVSET which rolled out nationally last year, and SAILS which is rolling out this year, low level updates will come every 110 - 144 seconds instead of every 300-360 seconds as they used to be. Make sure you have the very latest versions of GR3 (just released last week) and GR2AE (a few months ago) as they support AVSET and SAILS.

https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/NewTechnology/SAILS_DQ_Presentation_Nov_2012.pdf

 

[Mike Johnston]

Well actually the cost isn't a factor at all. It's the need to continue volume scans. In any case, between AVSET which rolled out nationally last year, and SAILS which is rolling out this year, low level updates will come every 110 - 144 seconds instead of every 300-360 seconds as they used to be. Make sure you have the very latest versions of GR3 (just released last week) and GR2AE (a few months ago) as they support AVSET and SAILS.

https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/NewTechnology/SAILS_DQ_Presentation_Nov_2012.pdf

Rob, isn't the eventual idea for phased array radar to complete full volume scans in a minute or so? I understand that cost is a factor in bringing phased array to operational reality - both the number of components required as well as the development of technology to dual-polarize it. This could be 15-20 years away, and hopefully it won't get entangled in the bureaucratic hoops that Doppler radar did. I'm probably over-simplifying it; just a layman's understanding of the state of the art.

 

[GPhillips]

The thing I'd like to see is a radar that can complete a scan every minute as the standard. I think that's not only useful to chasers, but also to real-time warnings for the public. So much can change in a storm in 5 minutes, it's really too long to wait for the next scan. I don't think this will happen for maybe 20-30 years, though. Cost will be the biggest limiting factor.

Even with the WSR-88D, scan times will be shortening. When in AVSET, times between low-level scans can currently be reduced to 3.25 minutes without storms near the radar. Going in late this Spring or early this Summer with radar build 14, SAILS will insert a another low-level slice into the middle of volume scan, reducing times between low-level slices to as little as 1.75 to 2.25 minutes. http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/NewRadarTechnology/NewTechDefault.aspx

More frequent low-level slices are also possible in the future. Read future plans for the WSR-88D with radar Build 16 enhancements to SAILS possible in 2015. See page 6 of this presentation. http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/NewRadarTechnology/NewTechDefault.aspx

And otherwise, I would like a transporter like in Star Trek to be able to quickly go to any storm that I would like to see. As nice as that would be, I don't think I want to be a test subject for the technology.

Edit...whoops, Rob beat me to it.

 

[rdale]

Mike -

That was the original plan, but I think the "trend" is becoming a mix of radar types (i.e. some like CASA short range but high resolution and high update rate, some conventional 88D-like radar, some phased array radar.) I am quite certain that because of cost and reduced range, MPAR will not straight-up replace the 88D. Here's more on that.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/mparsup/publications/2013.Torres.29EIPT.pdf

 

[chrisbray]

When they do invent replicators, Skip will have them in his van and eliminate the need for getting the same 5 dollar footlong from subway every trip. In fact, he may just live in his hover-van entirely? That's the future of chasing right there

 

[rdale]

Actually Wichita (ICT) is in AVSET and SAILS mode right now. Not too exciting weather, but beautiful seeing ~2 minute updates!

 

[Mike Smith]

You do remember that during the WSR-57/74 era, the radar updated every 20 seconds?

If it were up to me, there would be 0.5, 0.8 and 1.5 degree scans except in supercell situations. In those, there would be a 0.5/0.9/1.5/2.4° sequence every second scan. Have talked with many pilots (GA and airline), they do not use the high level products. We need the low-level info for storm warnings.

 

[rdale]

They are necessary for the algorithms along with precip totals though, and those keep on getting better (except for HCA)

 

[Kelly Sugden]

That is the whole point with Build 14 and SAILS... to get more frequent 0.5 deg scans. AVSET also eliminates scanning higher tilts if there is nothing to detect.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Also higher tilts are very important. If the storm is right over the radar, you need to use another radar. Looking for storm top divergence, bwers, wers, etc. typically occurs with elevation scans above the aforementioned low level split cuts.

 

[Mike Smith]

@Kelly: In the era of the WSR-57/74, the WER/BWERs could be directly (and much more quickly) surveyed using the RHI scope. There is a lot of "back to the future" going on here.

 

[rdale]

Only one BWER at a time And chosen by one person. Volume scans allow everyone to pick any storms. But as I mentioned, that's why future radar will not be just one type. Some 88D'ish, some like CASA for fast, low level updates, maybe some MPAR, etc.

 

[Mike Smith]

Only one BWER at a time And chosen by one person.

Having used a -74C for two decades, it took (literally) about ten sec. per supercell to find a BWER with an RHI. So, if you had four candidate supercells, you could get a better* analysis of all of the supercells in less than a minute.

*With the -88D's system, a fast-moving supercell will be distorted because of the slow scanning speed of the radar (1 rpm) and a BWER can be missed. This is not a theoretical problem, it has occurred in some critical storm situations.

I am glad the NWS is finally allowing more flexibility by its field offices in severe storm situations.

If they can get phased array to work properly that would be great.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Ah... And as far as the original topic is concerned... I want a future in which SW Kansas is not in a drought. Seems too far-fetched/futuristic, I know.

 

[rdale]

One final note on radar. If the FAA and DoD approve, MESO-SAILS can be implemented which would provide 2 more 0.5 tilts per volume scan. That would be updates averaging every 89 seconds!