Post a (Google Earth) Landfall Prediction.

[Glenn Dixon]

ok, just for kicks

terramar beach, tx

29.07N 95.04W

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'll just take a wild guess. Just south of Avery Island, LA in Vermillion Bay.

 

[Darin Brunin]

Holly Beach, LA

29.77 -93.45

 

[Kurt Wayne]

Back again

Winnie, TX in far east Galveston County.

 

[Jay Cazel]

Galveston Island

 

[Kurt Wayne]

Pleagh

I meant High Island, south of Winnie.

 

[blairkiel]

Re: Pleagh

Originally posted by Kurt Wayne
I meant High Island, south of Winnie.

If it hits in winnie my companies dock in sabine pass will be gone.

bad deal, but it is apparent that the Matagorda Bay track is off.

 

[Anonymous]

As per my wx-chase post earlier - I pick the town of Matagorda and Cat 3.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Anonymous
As per my wx-chase post earlier - I pick the town of Matagorda and Cat 3.

Damn it! I always forget to log on. That post is mine. Matagorda / Cat 3.

 

[HAltschule]

The 18z GFS may be on to something!?!?!!! The Northwest Jog that lasted for 4 hours or so, was likely significant enough to change the track. Based on the following, the NHC MUST BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS.

A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around

Houston

. FYI: It is common practice for forecasters to wait a little while to see if another model run continues the trend before making adjustments...especially in such a high profile situation. That said, I'll bet this is what the NHC is doing and might even anticipate a track shift to the north tonight or at 5am tomorrow if the trend continues!!!

HOUSTON: WE'VE GOT A PROBLEM!!!!

 

[FBST]

Rita's Target

I am going to go with just north east of Port Lavaca, because I don't see this storm turning northwestward early enogh to make a trek to Galveston/Houston area.

 

[Brandon Clement]

29.31.52.95N 92.18.36.44W
or
In between Tiger Point and Mulberry Island, La as a category 3 with winds at 115 mph. The pressure will be 946mb.

I hope I am right since it is mostly just swamp land in that area.

 

[Steve Miller]

Howie:
I agree with your assessment but am looking a little further SW at my original Freeport, TX target.
I will say:
Freeport, TX - high-end Cat 3

 

[Matthew K. Hartman]

I'll bite... slightly west of Port Arthur, TX - somewhere between East Bay and Sea Rim State Park (as a strong Cat-3).

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Here are the three closest predictions in the order they were posted:

Originally posted by Brett Adair+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Brett Adair)</div>

Cameron, Louisiana.[/b]

Originally posted by Darin Brunin@
Holly Beach, LA 29.77 -93.45

<!--QuoteBegin-Matthew K. Hartman
slightly west of Port Arthur, TX - somewhere between East Bay and Sea Rim State Park

Nice Job, Guys.