Glenn Dixon
EF2
ok, just for kicks
terramar beach, tx
29.07N 95.04W
terramar beach, tx
29.07N 95.04W
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A student is looking for help on tropical cyclone prediction. Please fill out the survey linked to this thread: https://stormtrack.org/threads/storm-and-hurricane-intensity-prediction-survey.32957
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After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
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Sincerely, Jeff D.
Post a (Google Earth) Landfall Prediction.
- Thread starter Sam Sagnella
- Start date
Dick McGowan
EF5
I'll just take a wild guess. Just south of Avery Island, LA in Vermillion Bay.
Darin Brunin
EF5
Holly Beach, LA
29.77 -93.45
29.77 -93.45
Kurt Wayne
Back again
Winnie, TX in far east Galveston County.
Winnie, TX in far east Galveston County.
Jay Cazel
EF4
Galveston Island
Kurt Wayne
Pleagh
I meant High Island, south of Winnie.
I meant High Island, south of Winnie.
blairkiel
Re: Pleagh
If it hits in winnie my companies dock in sabine pass will be gone.
bad deal, but it is apparent that the Matagorda Bay track is off.
If it hits in winnie my companies dock in sabine pass will be gone.
bad deal, but it is apparent that the Matagorda Bay track is off.
Anonymous
As per my wx-chase post earlier - I pick the town of Matagorda and Cat 3.
Bill Tabor
EF5
Damn it! I always forget to log on. That post is mine. Matagorda / Cat 3.
HAltschule
EF5
The 18z GFS may be on to something!?!?!!! The Northwest Jog that lasted for 4 hours or so, was likely significant enough to change the track. Based on the following, the NHC MUST BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS.
A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around
HOUSTON: WE'VE GOT A PROBLEM!!!!
A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around
. FYI: It is common practice for forecasters to wait a little while to see if another model run continues the trend before making adjustments...especially in such a high profile situation. That said, I'll bet this is what the NHC is doing and might even anticipate a track shift to the north tonight or at 5am tomorrow if the trend continues!!!
HOUSTON: WE'VE GOT A PROBLEM!!!!
FBST
Rita's Target
I am going to go with just north east of Port Lavaca, because I don't see this storm turning northwestward early enogh to make a trek to Galveston/Houston area.
I am going to go with just north east of Port Lavaca, because I don't see this storm turning northwestward early enogh to make a trek to Galveston/Houston area.
Brandon Clement
EF4
29.31.52.95N 92.18.36.44W
or
In between Tiger Point and Mulberry Island, La as a category 3 with winds at 115 mph. The pressure will be 946mb.
I hope I am right since it is mostly just swamp land in that area.
or
In between Tiger Point and Mulberry Island, La as a category 3 with winds at 115 mph. The pressure will be 946mb.
I hope I am right since it is mostly just swamp land in that area.
Howie:
I agree with your assessment but am looking a little further SW at my original Freeport, TX target.
I will say:
Freeport, TX - high-end Cat 3
I agree with your assessment but am looking a little further SW at my original Freeport, TX target.
I will say:
Freeport, TX - high-end Cat 3
I'll bite... slightly west of Port Arthur, TX - somewhere between East Bay and Sea Rim State Park (as a strong Cat-3).
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Here are the three closest predictions in the order they were posted:
Nice Job, Guys.
Nice Job, Guys.