Post a (Google Earth) Landfall Prediction.

Jul 18, 2004
Westport, CT
Just as a fun little forecasting exercise with Hurricane Rita, post your projected landfall point here. For those with Google Earth, it'll be interesting to see if there's any sort of consensus among STers.

28.54N 95.20W
Bryan Beach, TX (~4S Freeport)
I dont think that the ridge will pull east in time to turn the storm toward Freeport or Galveston. My prediction is that Rita will stay alost on a near west track and then start the northwest track and make landfall around Rock Port, TX(just north of Corpus Cristi)
I'm sticking with my guesstiforcast of Freeport, also, from yesterday morning. The afternoon GFS opened up the unpleasant possibility that R could get to the coast, stall, and mumble/bumble her way into southern LA. Hopefully this won't be the case, because she looks like a big rainmaker wherever she lands.
As of Wed. I would target Matagorda Bay also. The question is where at? Port O'Connor or Matagorda? If you set up in either one and there’s a last minute change in the track you could find yourself either on the wrong side or completely SOL. And if you wait to long to decide, you may be shutout from getting in. Hmmmmmm …
Re: Pleagh

Originally posted by Kurt Wayne
I meant High Island, south of Winnie.

If it hits in winnie my companies dock in sabine pass will be gone.

bad deal, but it is apparent that the Matagorda Bay track is off.
As per my wx-chase post earlier - I pick the town of Matagorda and Cat 3.
The 18z GFS may be on to something!?!?!!! The Northwest Jog that lasted for 4 hours or so, was likely significant enough to change the track. Based on the following, the NHC MUST BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS.

A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around
. FYI: It is common practice for forecasters to wait a little while to see if another model run continues the trend before making adjustments...especially in such a high profile situation. That said, I'll bet this is what the NHC is doing and might even anticipate a track shift to the north tonight or at 5am tomorrow if the trend continues!!!