Possible TD developing near Bahamas

[Jim Leonard]

There is increasing indications we may see at least a tropical depression developing near the northern Bahamas during the next few days. This morning there are two low level swirls, one near 30N and 77W another smaller one near 26N and 76.5W the latter one is closer to the convection. Also there are some weak banding characteristics to the convection just to the east of the southern most swirl. Guidance models show an intensifying low center coming ashore in the area of South Carolina early next week.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

There were interesting radar bands similar to a distant tropical system on the fringe of the radar today. Going to the beach on Sunday, will see what swells come as a result. Missing all the action up north working down here, but may see some of this years hurricanes if things pan out as all the forecasts indicate.

 

[B Ozanne]

The NHC just put out a tropical disturbance statement for the same circulation that originally started this thread. A small low pressure is located 140 miles south of Cape Fear.

 

[Jim Leonard]

The NHC just put out a tropical disturbance statement for the same circulation that originally started this thread. A small low pressure is located 140 miles south of Cape Fear.
[/b]

Looking at the latest satellite loops it appears that this system is real close to tropical storm strength. I wouldn't be surprised to see the system named tropical storm Beryl later today.

 

[HAltschule]

Doppler radar out of North Carolina confirms a sutained low level circulation. There is very little doubt in my mind that this is now a TD and possibly of TS strength. Agree with Jim that Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued shortly. System should move inland between Cape Hatteras and Wilmington, NC tonight.

PS: If Tropical Storm Beryl forms, it will be interesting to see exactly how many tornadoes form from it. My college research paper focussed on the tornado outbreak with TS Beryl many years ago in NC and SC. This isn't all that far away from where that occurred (few hundred miles). So, we could actually see another tornado outbreak associated with TS Beryl if this thing gets names. Many of you who were in the business then may remember it too. John Hope was at my presentation and thought it was great. Shortly after he also published his paper on the topic. The bottom line...big tornado outbreaks can occur even with weak tropical systems as long as there is some instability (mid level dry air punch and solar insolation at the ground). Even the weakest TD's have great low level shear and that's all you need for some TOR's. Anyway, I got off on a tangent. Back to hibernation mode.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Doppler radar out of North Carolina confirms a sutained low level circulation. There is very little doubt in my mind that this is now a TD and possibly of TS strength. Agree with Jim that Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued shortly. System should move inland between Cape Hatteras and Wilmington, NC tonight.

PS: If Tropical Storm Beryl forms, it will be interesting to see exactly how many tornadoes form from it. My college research paper focussed on the tornado outbreak with TS Beryl many years ago in NC and SC. This isn't all that far away from where that occurred (few hundred miles). So, we could actually see another tornado outbreak associated with TS Beryl if this thing gets names. Many of you who were in the business then may remember it too. John Hope was at my presentation and thought it was great. Shortly after he also published his paper on the topic. The bottom line...big tornado outbreaks can occur even with weak tropical systems as long as there is some instability (mid level dry air punch and solar insolation at the ground). Even the weakest TD's have great low level shear and that's all you need for some TOR's. Anyway, I got off on a tangent. Back to hibernation mode.
[/b]

Late update:
Looks like this system is running out of water quickly, probably won't make it to TS status. Doppler radar shows the center is less than 30 miles offshore and moving north fast.

 

[HAltschule]

Yes, the system is flying rapidly northward and about to move inland as you said. I am not convinced that it is not a TD as I see a pretty well organized circulation center. Anyway, FWIW, here's NHC's latest statement:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH
LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.[/b]