Personal Funnel vs Tornado Counts/Ratios

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Mike Hollingshead

Thought this might be an interesting thread after a discussion with another chaser about funnel clouds. It got me thinking of something I've noticed before. When I see a funnel cloud, in almost every case it becomes a tornado. I have seen an exceptionally low number of legit funnel clouds(not ragged hanging downs with dirt kicked up near them) that didn't end up becoming a tornado.

What do you estimate your ratio is? I'm pretty sure I've seen 20 times as many tornadoes as I have funnel clouds that never became tornadoes. It's just kind of interesting how hard it seems to me to see a funnel cloud that doesn't end up a tornado.
 
I would say I have seen more tornadoes than legit funnels that didn't produce as well, though I can think of plenty of cases where I had LEGIT funnels that never touched down, May 5th 2007 comes to mind, when it seemed like several times legit funnels formed, but could never quite produce. May 25th this year near La Crosse KS yielded a few of the better funnels I've seen that never produced http://www.severechase.com/5-25-08.html there are many other times I seen legit funnels and no tornado, but I would say my ratio is at least 10:1 tornado to legit funnel that never turned into a tornado...
 
Close to 50:1 for me. I can honestly say I've only seen 2 funnel clouds that have not turned into tornadoes or were later verified to be a tornado. I don't know my exact tornado count (somewhere between 70 and 100) so the ratio could be between 35:1 and 50:1.

IMO, most "funnel cloud" reports are scud, tornadoes where the ground circulation is obscured, or quickly become tornadoes. In most cases, for a storm to be wrapped up enought to create a legit funnel, there is more than likely some sort of manifestation of the circulation on the ground, visible or not.
 
Most of the funnels that I catch that don't have visible debris clouds, wind up being confirmed as tornadoes later on by someone else with a better view of the ground. I think cold core setups are probably the best producers of funnels that don't touch down. Perhaps the shallow convection and high vorticity gives the vortex a higher probability of not extending to the ground.

February 24, 2007 cold core setup:
07022413.JPG
 
Depends on what your definition of a "funnel" is ... I see shear funnels all the time ... maybe "tornadic funnels" ... hangy-downies from a wall cloud funnels?

I've seen:

1 tornado
1 cold air funnel (which possibly touched the ground, though I did not see that)
5+ needle funnels on wall cloud bases.
15+ shear funnels (higher on the meso, one sticking out the side of an occluded meso ... looked like a worm coming out the side of an apple.)

I don't actually count funnels in my "stats" :)
 
May 25th this year near La Crosse KS yielded a few of the better funnels I've seen that never produced http://www.severechase.com/5-25-08.html there are many other times I seen legit funnels and no tornado, but I would say my ratio is at least 10:1 tornado to legit funnel that never turned into a tornado...

Most of the funnels that I catch that don't have visible debris clouds, wind up being confirmed as tornadoes later on by someone else with a better view of the ground.

On that note my brother and I obseved a small debris/condensaton cloud associated with Dustin's funnel http://www.severechase.com/5-25-08.html in the town of LaCrosse that lasted ~1minute.
 
funnels vs. tornadoes

I haven't ever keep exact numbers and funnels are never actually recorded in my experiences. I would say out of every 5 tornadoes I see, I see one funnel that never becomes a tornado. I just don't see many funnels.
 
Great thread. I can think of only funnel since I've been chasing--April 15th 2006 southeast of Beatrice, just after the tornado that hit town, but a different circulation.
 
Not counting midlevel funnels (high up), the only one I can remember is April 23, 2007 (Protection day), right as the storm was first getting its act together before crossing 183 south of Sitka:

hd-ksn-042307a2.jpg


And I hear even this may have been counted as a tornado by some who were closer. It only lasted about 10-15 seconds.
 
Perhaps the key is to look during fair wx situations? All of these funnels developed underneath weak convection rising along ofb's present at the time. It's like the ingredients can be there but the pot is barely on simmer versus boiling.

2006
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2007
IMG_8465.jpg


2008
IMG_4581.jpg
 
On that note my brother and I obseved a small debris/condensaton cloud associated with Dustin's funnel http://www.severechase.com/5-25-08.html in the town of LaCrosse that lasted ~1minute.
I'll agree with Scott on this one....both of your funnel examples were quite likely brief tornadoes. It's difficult to tell a funnel from a tornado at a couple miles distance unless there is an obvious debris cloud. I was told by quite a few chasers just north of town that the first funnel did touch down. We were quite close to that event, looking up at a 45 degree angle at it, but we had obstructions blocking the ground. The second funnel appears to be the brief tornado that spun up just east of the road. I've seen debris cloud shots of this tornado, although again I didn't get one as a clump of trees blocked the ground.

This is a good example of how difficult it is to tell a well formed funnel cloud from a weak tornado and the LaCrosse event was full of them.
 
I was able to observe a dust plume / ground circulation associated with the first funnel in the series of pics (SW of La Crosse) though I didn't observe or even hear that the second funnel in my pics (Over and Just East of La Crosse) touched down. I''d be interested in seeing some pics of it if anyone has a link...
 
I can think of 2 occasions with possible funnels and 1 where there was a definite funnel but no confirmation except the public.

#1 - May 18th, 1997 - 2 Large HP supercells moved into my neighborhood at around 7 PM. from the NW. There were many reports of tornadoes to the North, including an F2 that tore through the Northern suburb of Lindenhurst. While filming at the park near my house, I heard over the police band of a funnel cloud moving SE from 10 miles away. Through the lightning flashes you can make out a very dark ragged base of a gust front. There were many funnel look-a-likes, but one stood out and lasted the longest. Probably a matter of 10 minutes this large low hanging "funnel shaped" mass headed toward me, then directly over me. In the distance, all you can see is power flashes underneath this "thing." Since it was HP I never truly discounted the fact that it may have been a funnel, however, more than likely it was just a gustnado-ish/downburst type deal. Once the feature passed overhead winds howled to about 80 mph and brought down 50-100 trees in and around my neighborhood. Its on an old VHS tape that I still have, I will need to convert it and post it on youtube.

#2 - April 20, 2003 - New Washington, Indiana. After not making it to KS and OK the day before we decided to follow the system east into KY and IN. After intercepting 4 warned storms in and around the Indianapolis metro area, I decided to dip south to a long line of embedded supercells that was heading NE from Western Kentucky. There were numerous tornado warnings and reports of damage (later learned it was straight line winds.) Decided to get a hotel in Seymour, IN, and grab a bite to eat at a local Pizza Hut. When we finished eating, we stopped in awe to look at the scene that was in front of our very eyes. To the west was the most majestic sunset you could ever see. (On a circle that would be 270 degrees) Pan over 10 degrees so you are looking west southwest and you see the outline of a huge black anvil stretching over the sunset and feeding into the northern end of a massive squall line that was spitting out prolific CC and CG. The pictures I have of this were an epic failure, but luckily I have some video of it that is on HI-8 tape. We drove south from Seymour about 20 miles into the teeth of this storm. Stopped in a little town of New Washington, Indiana, and let the storm pass just south of us. While trying to take lightning photographs, I noticed something almost directly over head.(Keep in mind it was about 9 PM) Kept thinking to myself, that looks like a funnel, but just looked it off and continued trying to capture lightning. Next thing I know I start feeling wind at my back (from the east) heading west at around 15-20 mph. Since I was in the middle of no-where, I didn't have internet connection so looking at radar was quite impossible. I noticed this area of interest sort of became elongated and had a little needle-like tail as it was darting from W to E about a mile or two to the south of us.(Keeping in mind I was trying to capture lightning looking to the WSW while this feature was due south) Again I still didn't want to call it a funnel......until I was blasted by a strong north gust that rocked the car (had to move inside as moderate rain had started to fall). Circulation? Coincidence? Who knows..... There wasn't a log of any sort of damage or tornado report from that area so my guess is we got caught up in the northern end(bookend vortex) of the squall line that produced low hanging scud and would explain the reason why we felt a wind shift.

#3 - May 30th, 2003 - I 39 - Route 34[SIZE=-1]
2140[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]UNK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] WEST BROOKLYN [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]LEE [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]IL[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]4169[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] 8914[/SIZE][SIZE=-2] REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (LOT)[/SIZE] Per the SPC report.

Parked on the ramp of I 39 and Route 30 (Mendota exit) watched the 2nd in a line of tornado warned supercells move ESE out of WI and NW IL.

PICT0004.jpg

Was the view as it moved toward me. Notice a very low ragged wall cloud with tail cloud just to the left of center coming at me from the NW.

PICT0005.jpg

As it got closer, I began seeing definite strong rotation (already a tornado warned storm) Rotation was concentrated near the center of the image as it was a rather large wall cloud. Tornado reports began coming in like the one above, but I could never see a touch down. Just brief blotchy funnels from time to time and that was it. Later on this same storm did produce 3 confirmed tornadoes including an F1 that went through Downtown Joliet.

I57-1.jpg

I was doing a decent job keeping up with it as it was trailing Route 34 for a while, but 34 trends back to the north and east and once the storm crossed 34, I was done. Couldn't keep up with it and had to let it go.

So my ratio would be something like 25:1 with 2 maybes thrown in.
 
What do you estimate your ratio is? I'm pretty sure I've seen 20 times as many tornadoes as I have funnel clouds that never became tornadoes. It's just kind of interesting how hard it seems to me to see a funnel cloud that doesn't end up a tornado.

mike, in my experience ive seen alot more funnel clouds then tornadoes, if i gave a ratio id say maybe one tornado out of 20? where you live, and your position relevant to the storm definatly plays a critical role in your "number"...if i get a glimpse of a possible funnel or something like that, i usually dont have alot of time to watch it develop before it goes beneath a treeline or just moves away altogether...storm motions out here are something serious, and with storms that cycle alot...you have a dissapearing/reappearing wall cloud that persists for hours, travels over a hundred miles, but may only have a "tornado" a few seconds during the lifetime of the storm...im referring to a storm travelling at high speed, embedded in stratus in mississippi terrain...its very hard to stay up with a storm, usually you just have one shot, and it passes you...you can give up on following it...

there are a few good "storm-views" around the area which pose as good grounds to watch a storm...pontotoc/ecru/thaxton/shannon you could probably watch a storm do all that, but even then...the most powerful storms i see just have a large low hanging wall cloud...cloud bases here are very low, and ive noticed with alot of the events ive chased, you really dont see those high-based high-profile funnels...more like dark, thick rotating cloud material...like 11/15/05 near the barnes crossing mall...ive seen plenty of wall clouds, some of them had the "danglies" or some little old tails, but ive never really watched one go from funnel-to-tornado, i guess the only one would be that 5/2/08 storm...even then, it was very difficult to ID, and by that time i determined what it was, it was gone...

with different events and different circumstances, i would say 1 in 20...saying, if i was on 20 different risk days i might see one tornado out of 20 storms...
 
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