PDS watches/high risks/michigan

[Jeremy Lemanski]

If anyone knows if michigan has ever had a PDS watcb issued for any part of the state, could be please post the date and any info you have on it. Also, any high risk days michigan has had, pretty sure 10-24-01 had a high risk in the SW corner, besides that i haven't seen any. Thanks a ton.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yeah 10/24/01 was the only time any part of the LP was included in a high risk that I know of.

The western part of the UP was high risked on July 31, 2002 but it essentially busted.

BTW, still looking for the 448x358 categorical graphic and all prob graphics for that outlook.

 

[Robert Dewey]

If anyone knows if michigan has ever had a PDS watcb issued for any part of the state, could be please post the date and any info you have on it. Also, any high risk days michigan has had, pretty sure 10-24-01 had a high risk in the SW corner, besides that i haven't seen any. Thanks a ton.

On 10/24/01, the HIGH risk covered a good chunk of southern lower MI, not just the southwest corner. I can't remember if any of the PDS watches from that day extended into MI, but I am thinking they didn't. There were over 566 total reports from that day, and the SPC high risk verified VERY well.

July 2nd, 1997 featured a MDT risk, but was one of the worst outbreaks that MI has experienced in quite some time, producing at least one F3. I was surprised there wasn't a high risk during that event, since everything was in place, and a VERY INTENSE cold front was sweeping through an airmass with 4000J/KG of CAPE and a 50-60KNT 500MB speed max.

October 24, 2001:

Source: <a href=\'http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/html/historical/Oct2401SvrWx.htm' target='_blank'>http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/html/historical/Oc...vrWx.htm[/size]</a>

 

[nickgrillo]

Rob, are you sure that 2-July-1997 was only a MDT risk... I could have sworn it was a HIGH risk by the later outlooks in the afternoon (probably 2000UTC)?

24-October-2001 had several PDS watch boxes surrounding MI, but I am not sure if the one PDS included parts of MI. Somebody should archive the watches to find out....

 

[Robert Dewey]

Rob, are you sure that 2-July-1997 was only a MDT risk... I could have sworn it was a HIGH risk by the later outlooks in the afternoon (probably 2000UTC)?

24-October-2001 had several PDS watch boxes surrounding MI, but I am not sure if the one PDS included parts of MI. Somebody should archive the watches to find out....

I pulled the archives from SPC for that event, and it only remained a MDT risk. Although there were 16 tornadoes (precluding a HIGH risk), the fact that it was such a concentrated outbreak (a line of very nasty and large HP supercells) would have warranted a HIGH risk in my opinion.