PDS Special Weather Statement...

[Mike Smith]

Shane, you are completely misinterpreting me. I don't believe there should be "tornado emergencies" or "particularly dangerous situation" tornado warnings. But, if we are going to have them (again, I am strongly against them), then Joplin should have had them. It did not.

Your facts regarding JLN are incorrect. The tornado did not form "right on the edge of town." It first touched down at 5:33 halfway between Joplin and Galena. It reached JLN at 5:41. Agree it became large and violent very quickly.

AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions got JLN exactly correct and issued its warning for our two railroad clients before the NWS issued its warning for the eventual path of the tornado. The letter we received from American Railroad Dispatch Corp. credited us with saving the lives of their employees. As to our warnings for the "public," AES does not serve the public.

Unfortunately, the NWS and local emergency management made many errors. These are cited, in detail, in my book: "While the Sirens Were Silent." http://www.amazon.com/Sirens-Silent-Warning-Community-ebook/dp/B0084I8PI4/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1 The paper version of the book sold out months ago. You can purchase the ebook version for $2.99 or you are certainly welcome to borrow it from the library. There is a short summary here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/05/joplin-was-essentially-blindsided-by.html

The people of Joplin were "essentially blindsided" by the tornado. Those are not my words but the words of the SGF NWS. Tragically, they are accurate.

 

[Rob H]

Your facts regarding JLN are incorrect. The tornado did not form "right on the edge of town." It first touched down at 5:33 halfway between Joplin and Galena. It reached JLN at 5:41. Agree it became large and violent very quickly.

That's not really accurate. It touched down almost exactly one mile west of Joplin city limits and almost 2 miles from Galena "proper" - check geodata and survey coords if you don't believe me. Regardless the centers of Galena and Joplin are roughly 7 miles apart, so anything in between is essentially in Joplin by the time the message is transmitted.

It's an interesting discussion, but not one that I'm inclined to go to the library or spend money on to continue. Sorry

 

[Mike Smith]

Rob, you are incorrect. There is photographic evidence the tornado touched down exactly halfway between JLN and Galena. Your description of "1 W JLN" and "2 E Galena" do not even describe the same geographic location.

It does not matter whether you wish to continue the discussion. It does matter whether you have your facts right.

 

[Rob H]

Rob, you are incorrect. There is photographic evidence the tornado touched down exactly halfway between JLN and Galena. Your description of "1 W JLN" and "2 E Galena" do not even describe the same geographic location.

It does not matter whether you wish to continue the discussion. It does matter whether you have your facts right.

You can't slap quotes around "1 W JLN" and "2 E Galena" when that's not remotely what I said. I said 1 W of JLN city limits (which is accurate), and 2 miles (no direction, although it would be SE) of Galena "proper", ie. something that isn't empty ranchland.

From SGF "Approximate area of first indication of damage to trees observed from aerial photographs." The starting point is roughly 37.053841, -94.592936. Now I wasn't able to quickly get the exact lat/lon of the first tree down, but let's just assume there's a margin of error of a few hundred meters (which is probably overkill).

Plotting that in Google maps is the green arrow, ignore the pink pushpin that Google keeps automatically adding.

The white dashed line in Google is Joplin city limits. The very first tree that got knocked down was much closer to Joplin city limits than any sort of populated residential or business area in Galena. To enter city limits would have taken the tornado 90 seconds from the time the first tree was knocked down, assuming that 40mph motion stated in the warning.

I'm not going to spend any more time crunching numbers, or doing trigonometry and getting precise data because it's close enough to say "yeah it pretty much formed right on the edge of Joplin" for any argument. This seems like a really strange arguing point on a thread about PDSs and winter storms.

 

[Shane Adams]

I don't believe there should be "tornado emergencies" or "particularly dangerous situation" tornado warnings. But, if we are going to have them (again, I am strongly against them), then Joplin should have had them. It did not.

Again, Joplin formed very quickly, more quickly than any type warning could've caught up to. Why are you against the Tornado Emergency? When used correctly, they are the most effective warning in existence (as it was used 5-3-99 by the people who, on the spot, INVENTED it). Don't hold a grudge against the tool just because people don't use it the right way.

Your facts regarding JLN are incorrect. The tornado did not form "right on the edge of town." It first touched down at 5:33 halfway between Joplin and Galena.

Okay, so it formed 3.5 miles west of Joplin. That's BEFORE the warning was issued. By the time that warning is heard, it's IN JOPLIN. So, as far as people are concerned, I'm right (although perhaps you don't care about the public because....)

AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions does not serve the public.

So what would you really know about warning the public since you were so engrossed in making sure the 5 guys on the railyard survived because your company's contract says you have to?

Unfortunately, the NWS and local emergency management made many errors. These are cited, in detail, in my book: "While the Sirens Were Silent." http://www.amazon.com/Sirens-Silent-Warning-Community-ebook/dp/B0084I8PI4/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1 The paper version of the book sold out months ago. You can purchase the ebook version for $2.99 or you are certainly welcome to borrow it from the library. There is a short summary here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/05/joplin-was-essentially-blindsided-by.html

And that's EXACTLY my problem with you. You casually lay blame on an agency for their actions during a major event with zero details, but then you'll spend a ing paragraph telling me how to get your ing book that tells all about how ty the NWS and SPC are while tooting your own horn. Is it a per-requisite amongst all mets who don't have government jobs to publicly hate on the NWS and SPC?

To close, I'd like to ask you to share with all of us, just how much personal profit you've made off the Joplin event. Clearly this case is a watershed moment for your personal career. I'm just curious how much money you've made off exploiting an event that killed 161 people. because if you try and say you haven't made any money off this event, you're a liar.

The people of Joplin were "essentially blindsided" by the tornado.[/B] Those are not my words but the words of the SGF NWS. Tragically, they are accurate.

Yes, they are. But it's not because SGF or SPC made mistakes or "didn't do their job". Your agenda is obvious. You compete against the best, the people who actually care about people because they value human life, not because they have a contract. You're using this human tragedy to make personal gains, but at the same time, trying to disguise that fact while attempting to make the NWS the bad guys. A double whammy.

Many people will get in line, BAAAA, and buy your line of crap...and they will lash out at me. But fortunately, at least some will see the truth.

 

[Mike Smith]

"And that's EXACTLY my problem with you. You casually lay blame on an agency for their actions during a major event with zero details, but then you'll spend a ing paragraph telling me how to get your ing book that tells all about how ty the NWS and SPC are while tooting your own horn. Is it a per-requisite amongst all mets who don't have government jobs to publicly hate on the NWS and SPC?

To close, I'd like to ask you to share with all of us, just how much personal profit you've made off the Joplin event. Clearly this case is a watershed moment for your personal career. I'm just curious how much money you've made off exploiting an event that killed 161 people. because if you try and say you haven't made any money off this event, you're a liar."

1. "Zero details." I wrote a whole book with the details! I provided a link to a blog post (for the second time, it is here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/05/joplin-was-essentially-blindsided-by.html ) with a summary of the details. It is not my responsibility to make sure you are informed.
2. "Hate the NWS." So, let me get this straight: I write an entire book praising the NWS ( http://www.amazon.com/Warnings-Story-Science-Tamed-Weather/dp/1608320340/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top ) and, last month, I write a column for the Washington Post praising all of weather science ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...520ad4-5142-11e3-9e2c-e1d01116fd98_story.html ) and you conclude I "hate" the NWS?! Unbelievable.
3. In order to get Sirens out in time for the first anniversary of JLN, it had to be self-published. I paid for all of that and traveling to JLN for research and to talk about the book after. I've probably made $2,000 to $3,000 total. Certainly, no more. After Warnings, I had zero desire to write a second book. I did it out of a sense of obligation so we would make sure JLN never happened again.
4. Being a husband, father, entrepreneur, and scientist are far more important to me than When the Sirens Were Silent. I'm very proud of the book but it is hardly a high point of my career.
5. If you don't believe people working on the train that was moved out of the path were worth saving, you are quite a snob. I mourn for the people who were not saved but at least we were able to save a few.
6. The warning was issued at 5:18pm, before the tornado touched down, so you are incorrect about that, as well. The problem with that warning and the followups (which you would see had you bothered to look at the blog link) is they kept saying the tornado was moving northeast which would have completely missed JLN.

The only way we can make sure 161 people don't lose their lives in a JLN-like event in the future is to learn from JLN. Thus, the reason for writing the book. Sometimes it is painful to learn. I hope we have learned from Joplin and nothing like it occurs in the future.

 

[Mike Smith]

@Rob: Thanks for posting the satellite image and pin. There are aerial photos that show tree damage a bit WNW of that spot but it is close enough.

I think the confusion is occurring is because, on May 22, 2011, the western city limit of Joplin was Schifferldecker Rd. The area farther southwest was annexed after the tornado.The first fatality occurred just east of Schifferdecker Rd. at 5:41pm.

This video of Jeff Piotrowski, begins at 5:36 before the KSNF. Listen closely to the radio announcer in the background. He is telling the listeners about a funnel cloud over Galena. Nothing about the tornado moving into Joplin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuU-nFuIZN4 The TV station is west of Joplin and the camera is pointing SW. Therefore, given the city limit at the time, the tornado cannot yet be in Joplin.

Take a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDOLjlzQYSs It begins at 5:37pm just before the tornado starts destroying the homes SW of town. You hear Megan McArtle, the meteorologist on KSNF TV, begin the tape by talking about a "funnel cloud over Galena." This was one of several times the NWS mis-located the tornado. The tone of voice of Megan and Jeremiah Cook (the male voice in the tape) start out very matter-of-fact. Then, they have the horrible realization the tornado isn't over Galena but moving into Joplin and their vocal urgency rises accordingly. When I interviewed her for the book, she told me she was "shocked" the tornado was in that location.

It is always my goal to generate light rather than heat. The NWS does vital, important work. But, the only way any science improves is by determining what went wrong and making sure it never happens again.

 

[Rob H]

@Rob: Thanks for posting the satellite image and pin. There are aerial photos that show tree damage a bit WNW of that spot but it is close enough.

I think the confusion is occurring is because, on May 22, 2011, the western city limit of Joplin was Schifferldecker Rd. The area farther southwest was annexed after the tornado.The first fatality occurred just east of Schifferdecker Rd. at 5:41pm.

That could be the case - I just looked at city limits as of today assuming not much would have changed in 2 years, and the only annexation I saw was Silver Creek which is S/SE Joplin. To be clear, I'm not trying to capitalize on any sort of argumentum ad logicam here - you very well may be correct in that Joplin was blindsided, and that the NWS made critical mistakes. I don't have the answers there, so I'm not going to claim either side as a victor.

I'm just a little confused on this part of it, and maybe its better suited for another thread. It would be nice if you provided a web resource for some of the data around this, as it's kind of unfair to debate and then direct people to buy a book, let alone your book, to continue the debate. It's winter and ST's slow season, so I'll keep talking here until a mod slaps my hand

Listen closely to the radio announcer in the background. He is telling the listeners about a funnel cloud over Galena. Nothing about the tornado moving into Joplin.

The distinction between Galena and Joplin as being crucial to the argument that Joplin was blindsided doesn't seem right, though. Galena had a population of ~440 at the time, and Joplin had ~50,000. "Downtown" Galena is ~7 miles from the center of Joplin. It's type of tiny city that residents probably refer to jokingly as "West Joplin". If there's a tornado in Galena, people in Joplin should immediately think "damn, that's like a stone's throw from where I live and basically the same city".

You hear Megan McArtle, the meteorologist on KSNF TV, begin the tape by talking about a "funnel cloud over Galena." This was one of several times the NWS mis-located the tornado. The tone of voice of Megan and Jeremiah Cook (the male voice in the tape) start out very matter-of-fact. Then, they have the horrible realization the tornado isn't over Galena but moving into Joplin and their vocal urgency rises accordingly. When I interviewed her for the book, she told me she was "shocked" the tornado was in that location.

The NWS didn't mislocate it just reading that at face value - Megan McArtle did. It was clear to any of the chasers in that area that it was moving into to Joplin. If Megan and Jeremiah couldn't look at radar and figure that out, and were "shocked" at how the tornado magically teleported, well they both need to head over to METED and take some radar refresher courses because they're bad at their jobs

 

[Mike Smith]

It would be nice if you provided a web resource for some of the data around this, as it's kind of unfair to debate and then direct people to buy a book, let alone your book, to continue the debate.

The NWS didn't mislocate it just reading that at face value - Megan McArtle did.

Rob, this is the THIRD time in this thread I have posted this "web resource" but here it is again: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/05/joplin-was-essentially-blindsided-by.html

With regard to Megan, the reason she mis-located it is because she was repeating what the NWS said. For the SECOND time in this thread here is the Jeff Piotrowski video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuU-nFuIZN4 If you listen to the radio announcer in the background you will hear the same thing Megan says: Funnel cloud over Galena. This is because that is what the NWS issued.

I'm perfectly happy to continue this discussion because it is important to insure nothing like this happens again. But, it is silly to keep accusing me of not posting "web resources" when I keep posting web resources.

As to "having to buy" my book, I wrote:

These are cited, in detail, in my book: "While the Sirens Were Silent." http://www.amazon.com/Sirens-Silent-Warning-Community-ebook/dp/B0084I8PI4/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1 The paper version of the book sold out months ago. You can purchase the ebook version for $2.99 or you are certainly welcome to borrow it from the library.

Clearly, I suggested going to the library.

Please, please, please before you make accusations or continue this debate please read what I have written. It is getting tiresome going over these same points over and over. Thanks.

ADDITION: I believe that if you are a member of "Amazon Prime" you can read Sirens online at no charge.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Not for these types of products. Only SPC issues them formally.

Wait, Rob. Isn't there a category of warning under the IBW experiment that has a PDS description? Warnings are issued by local NWS offices, not the SPC, right? So how is it that only the SPC issues PDS products?

 

[rdale]

TE's get that line added to the text so I guess it's all semantics? I'm not sure what you're asking.

 

[rdale]

Page 32 of http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005012curr.pdf

 

[Mike Johnston]

TE's get that line added to the text so I guess it's all semantics? I'm not sure what you're asking.

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" is a category of warning specifically laid out in the IBW experiment. So, I'm just questioning your statement that only the SPC issues a product that includes a PDS. Clearly, a PDS can be issued by the line NWS offices included in the area practicing the IBW.

 

[rdale]

Gotcha, but that is not part of a policy, just a template. Only SPC has PDS in the NWS Directives.

 

[Brandon Schmidt]

Apparently there are PDS Wind Chill Warnings too...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
844 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...HISTORIC AND LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

.A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE 1996 IS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BE WITH US INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO WITH ONLY A SMALL RECOVERY ON MONDAY.
THE ARCTIC COLD TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW TO 65 DEGREES BELOW.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION IF YOU BECOME STRANDED. WIND
CHILLS COLDER THAN 50 BELOW CAN CAUSE EXPOSED FLESH TO FREEZE IN
ONLY 5 MINUTES. COVER AS MUCH FLESH AS POSSIBLE WHEN VENTURING
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO
45 MPH OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT...
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE...
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
LEVEL OF DANGER TO ANYONE STRANDED.

MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066-068>070-076>078-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061200-
/O.CON.KMPX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140107T1800Z/
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-
CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...
PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...
CENTER CITY...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...
ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...HUTCHINSON...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...
BURNSVILLE...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...AMERY...
BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...
NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...
DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
844 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY.

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: 35 TO 60 BELOW...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: EXPOSED FLESH WILL FREEZE IN 10 MINUTES WITH WIND
CHILLS OF 35 BELOW...AND IN 5 MINUTES WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50
BELOW OR COLDER.

* OTHER IMPACTS...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS WINDS
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$​