Freak snowstorm... Michigan

[Robert Dewey]

Thought this was kind of funny:

MIZ037>040-043>046-021000-
/O.CON.KGRR.SN.Y.0002.060302T0600Z-060302T1600Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT
1047 PM EST WED MAR 1 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A
LITTLE BIT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY NOON ON
THURSDAY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

Actual snowfall amounts? 12 to 18 inches... I'd say that's just a little more than what was predicted... :lol:

 

[B Ozanne]

What happened? Were they way off on qpf or was it just drier snow than they expected?

 

[mikegeukes]

From NWS GRR Area Forecast Discussions Snippets:

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO FUEL THE BAND OF SNOW
THE BAND OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A NICE AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN IN PLACE. DEFORMATION/TROWAL FORCING.

Mike

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Possibly some Lake Effect action? Still no reason why the forcast was that far off.

Then again the August 18, 2005 tornado outbreak in WI only had a slight risk put out.

Weather can be mysterious sometimes.

 

[rdale]

"Possibly some Lake Effect action?"

No, this was all overrunning. Just hard to EVER call for numbers that high, let alone without model support.

 

[mikegeukes]

Source: NWS Grand Rapids

Mike

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

I had to drive from Davison to Flint this morning, the fog and blowing snow was incredible. I-69 westbound, the entire way, was between 25 and 45 mph driving speed with several vehicles well off the road (I almost slid off twice at overpasses).

We had about a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation and an inch of powdery snow. About thirty miles north, it just dumped. As soon as I heard the thunder, I knew it was going to snow much harder than the NWS had forecasted.