OUN WX - Fail?

[Billy Griffin]

Someone should have a lot of explaining to do come tomorrow morning, inside the Emergency Manager's office!

 

[Brett Roberts]

It definately wasn't the weather center, as I was watching the gr3 and the warning was posted on there and on NOAA's active watches and warnings more than 10 minutes before the sirens sounded. I live about 1/2 a mile east of campus off boyd so the circulation must have been right north of me. Scary not having a warning with something being there.

I agree. I was watching the OKC TDWR on GR3 before and during the tornado, and it was no more than 3-4 minutes after the "holy crap" volume scan came in that the TOR polygon appeared on my screen. Given that the warnings on GR3 usually seem to be a bit delayed for me, I think NWS OUN was as "on top of things" as you could possibly ask for. The sirens, on the other hand, did not sound until 5-10 minutes after the tornado dissipated. Watching the tornado with no sirens, and not even much lightning to illuminate it for residents in the path, was eerie.

 

[beaudodson]

I think the biggest issue here is the slow response of the EM blowing the sirens. OUN did a great job with the storm considering it went from nothing to SVR in 8 minutes, then from SVR to TOR warned 16 minutes later.
Channel 9 did a good job going wall to wall as soon as the storm went SVR, and did a great job showing the location of the tornado on radar. I was out in the yard of my apartment complex, and the general idea of the lay people was if there's a warning, where are the sirens? I don't know what the policy is for siren use in Cleveland County, but if the EM has to come from home to activate the system, it looks like there needs to be a change in the policy.

Of course people should not be getting their tornado warnings from tornado sirens. Tornadoes sirens are not meant to wake people up inside of their homes at 3 am in the morning. At least not around here. They are yet another tool that could help bring attention to the storm for people who happen to be outside.

A weather radio would have gone off immediately. Why would anyone in tornado country not have a weather radio?

I do agree, however, that there needs to be more than once person who can blow the alarm. We have several people that can blow the alarm in the event of a tornado. If one person isn't covering the weather then someone else is. Between the all of us we normally have someone on-call or available to handle in-coming weather - contact central - sound the sirens - tap out weather spotters.

If the reason the outdoor sirens did not sound was because of the reason mentioned above then yes a policy changed is most likely needed.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

The media certainly was surprised by this one. The only mention of severe weather all day had been the possibility of a "derecho part deux" event stemming from activity ongoing in Colorado. No real mention of any boundary.

Let me preface this by saying that I am an intern at KFOR...

But, FWIW...

Jonathan Conder over at KFOR was all over the boundaries on Friday.

Most of his weathercast Noon Friday was about the outflow boundaries from the early morning MCS and the stationary front across Central Oklahoma. He even posted about it on their blog.

So the media wasn't completely surprised. And they shouldn't have been after last May...

 

[Michael Armstrong]

I just wanted to give everyone my perspective since I was in the hot seat at Ch 9 Friday night. I can assure you there was no let down on our part. We monitored the OFB the entire day, and I believe that the slight increase in the nocturnal low-level jet was the key to the initiation on the boundary as the cap was rather weak per the 00z OUN sounding. I honestly don't recall if I mentioned the boundary specifically in my weathercast. I will also say that I have monitored many boundaries of various types and some of them result in tornadic storms while others result in nothing. I think we can all agree on that. My point is that nobody is going to seek shelter because you mention a boundary in your weathercast, nor should they.

Interestingly, a storm formed prior to the Norman supercell that developed an inflow notch on MOAR in eastern OK county northwest of Harrah. Another storm then developed near Stanley Draper Lake and weakened some. This was occurring approximately between 9:30 and 9:45 pm. The Norman storm then formed between 9:45 and 10 as I recall. The radar presentation was not very impressive to begin with.

So, 3 storms, nothing severe yet. The Harrah storm then goes severe with nickel-size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at 10:05 pm. (minimum svr criteria) The Norman storm goes severe at 10:09 pm. for quarters and 60 mph winds. At this time I was setting up MOAR to show both storms for my full weather segment which began around 10:15. I noticed an inflow notch on the Norman storm that looked very similar to the one associated with the Harrah storm, but the Norman storm now had 60-65 dbz. Both of these notches were located on the far west side of the cores by the way.

During my 10pm weathercast I pointed out the reflectivity hook that had now developed from the inflow notch in the Norman area, but I also stated that there had been no reports of strong rotation or wall clouds yet. I stated that I would be watching it closely. As soon as I finished the 7-day forecast I told our camera operators to inform the director to be on standby for a priority 1 tornado warning. I also let our sports anchor know that a tornado warning could be issued at any moment. At 10:25 I called for the priority 1 as soon as the warning was issued and we were wall-to-wall until the warning was cancelled in the 11-o'clock hour.

The only thing I would have changed would have been to have called one of our stormtrackers who lives in S. OKC as soon as I saw the inflow notch, but I still don't know if he would have made it to the storm in time anyway now that I think about it. The bottom line is that any time you have a tornado develop directly over a metro area night or day it presents an extreme challenge, but especially at night. It was a challenge that the OUN NWS and we handled as well as can be expected given the circumstances, and I have no regrets.

I am constantly reminded in this business that it only takes one link in the chain to break for the system to fail, at least in some way. Unfortunately the sirens were not sounded immediately, but hopefully it will be a lesson learned, and I am very thankful that nobody was injured. We deal with an atmosphere that is extremely complex, and we do our very best at all times of the day and night to bring timely warnings to the public. I am very proud of the commitment and work ethic of my fellow News9 meteorologists, stormtrackers, and staff. I am also proud of what I consider to be the best local NWS office in the country when it comes to severe weather.

I am glad you started this thread Billy, but I do think you were unjustified in your criticism given that you were not here to witness the events unfold.

Respectfully,

Mike Armstrong - News9

 

[tommywinning]

You're a standup guy Mike, this place is kind of a lion's den when it comes to what everyone else would have done better. You've got a new viewer.

 

[Elinor McLennon]

I monitored all 3 news stations that day, evening and night. There was plenty said about the boundary, LLJ increasing after dark and the fact that IF storms developed, they would be severe and for everyone to stay alert. That storm came up fast and seemed to go tornado warned quickly. There was no way that trackers from the media could have made that trip in a timely manner...too much distance to cover. All 3 new stations had non stop coverage until about 11pm. I don't know what they could have done anyone different.
Regarding the sirens sounding, contact Norman's EM to ask that question. No need to bash the media or OUN NWS. They did their job in my opinion.

 

[David Wagener]

Response from David Grizzle that I received today...

Thank you for your inquiry concerning the sirens. The City does not activate sirens solely based on a tornado warning being issued.

I am not sure about the reference on the 20 min. You might be referring to or did not hear the sirens during the first activation. On the previous storm the sirens were activated once and then reactivated as the storm threatened a different part of the city. On the recent storm, again, they were activated and a second activation 10 minutes from the first.

 

[Billy Griffin]

While the title of this thread is a mistake on my part, I sure never meant to sound like I was "bashing" anyone. Questioning how this event occurred without everyone being on top of it; yes.

Sure, I'm 2000 miles away right now. Hard to say what was going on behind the scenes. Yes, pure speculation.

Once mistaken, never forgiven I guess. But in all sincerity, all I wanted out of this thread was an unheated discussion of how it went unwarned until the biggest threat had already passed?

I think I pointed out in earlier comments, that I had no real beef with NWS. The warnings went out as they should have. Media was a little slow to respond, as I think it took them by surprise. Norman, OK emergency management was probably the most caught off guard by not initiating a city-wide warning. But by explanation above, I will not question city policy.

It's been a good learning experience; having at least a few chime in here with thoughts and ideas. Seeing as how my name is so well-received in this community, I'm surprised to have even gotten to five pages now.

If I am guilty of being "unjustified" for starting this thread, I don't know what criteria I can ever meet to post anything! I guess, being the photo thief that I am, overrides any opportunity to post questions or comments at all. I will say that I did not mean to offend anyone, so if it was taken that way; my apologies (for what it's worth.) I suppose once guilty = life sentence.
Color me done.

 

[Rob Satkus]

Saw an interview on Tv with Mr. Grizzle just now...their policy is to not sound the sirens until a tornado has been confirmed. I don't really know what to think about that...seems like a questionable policy when dealing with night time tornadoes.

Rob

 

[David Wagener]

Saw an interview on Tv with Mr. Grizzle just now...their policy is to not sound the sirens until a tornado has been confirmed. I don't really know what to think about that...seems like a questionable policy when dealing with night time tornadoes.

Rob

I think it would be wise for the city to approach the policy from two ways.

Daytime and the main threat area (rotation) is located outside of city limits or the area if clearly viewed by spotters...you use your best judgement and maybe wait for a funnel to form or ground confirmation. The downside, we've all seen these things wrap up fast and sometimes drop a strong ground circulation that can chew things up pretty quickly. You also have to consider how much lead time you want to give people. My opinion...if it is already on the ground in the city, you are too late because someone didn't have any lead time if their last line of defense were the outdoor sirens.

Nighttime threats where spotting is near impossible or where the main area of rotation is over populated areas of the city, you take no chances.

In the KWTV story - http://www.news9.com/global/story.asp?s=10537548 - this is kind of what I take issue with:

"We did not have a verified report of rotation from the ground or funnel from the ground until almost 10:36 p.m.," said Norman Emergency Management official David Grizzle.

Four more minutes went by before the sirens were finally activated at 10:40 p.m. Grizzle thinks the system worked well considering the suddenness of the storm.

"The problem that we had with this severe weather event was that the storm came, matured right on top of us," Grizzle said.

I'm pretty sure I was hearing things either over the media or the 410 repeater of reports of at least a funnel cloud well before 10:36. It could just be his office wasn't listening at the time. At 10:36 the tornado was already on the ground for 6 minutes, and by 10:40...16 minutes after OUN warning issuance...it had lifted and done what it was going to do that night. If you watch the story, I find it interesting that the Grizzle's office commented that their opinion most of the damage to homes was done by high winds and not a tornado.

To me, they know they messed up that night by being too cautious or not completely aware of the surroundings. Their policy seems fair for daytime/well spotted storms not nighttime/obstructed (view) storms. They are back peddling and playing CYA. I guess the only real thing that I would like to see out of this is a tweaking to the city policy to make exceptions based on spotting conditions and proximity to populated areas.

Here is the link to the exact policy for the City of Norman: http://www.ci.norman.ok.us/Emergency_Mgmt/AnnexC/ANNEXC.pdf

Weather Warning Procedures.
Upon receipt of notification of approaching severe weather (i.e., tornadoes,
thunderstorms, floods, etc.) from the National Weather Service, storm watch
personnel, other communities in the county or any other official source, the
Emergency Management Director who will make the determination to sound the
warning sirens, if required. If communications with the Emergency Management
Director or Emergency Management Coordinator cannot be established, Fire Dept.
Shift Commanders are authorized to sound the warning sirens.

Updated to add story in Norman Transcript on Tuesday: http://www.normantranscript.com/localnews/local_story_167011549

Seems the blame has shifted to conflicting spotter and fire department reports. I think this just underlines - nighttime events or situations where visibility is obstructed, you don't take a chance.

KOCO Story - http://www.koco.com/weather/19761786/detail.html

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I uploaded a little graphic I made with TDWR data from TOKC radar around the time of the tornado -> http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/06132009_TOKC_OUN_tornado.png

I'm not sure what the aliasing velocity is on the TDWR in the scanning strategy used, but it looks to be somewhere around 60 m/s. As you can see, it's folded on both the inbounds and outbounds. Note that at the given range and elevation angle, the beam height was only 110-180 m AGL.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Without knowing the full ins and outs of this, and concentrating just on meteorology, this is my take:

What we have to remember here is that tornadoes do not have to develop from nice mature supercells, which have gone through a (relatively) predictable sequence of events. Indeed, I suspect that many tornadoes, especially the somewhat weaker ones, develop very rapidly indeed, even perhaps as a low-level mesocyclone is developing.

I know this has little to do with the overall context of the thread, etc, but tornadogenesis is often very rapid!

 

[Lance Maxwell]

I find it interesting that Mr. Grizzle holds to this claim concerning the activation of the sirens considering they were blown several weeks ago back in May on a weakly rotating cell north of Norman proper along I-40 near Sunnylane.

 

[ccrosbie]

As a long time resident of Norman (just recently moved away) I would highly recommend that those of you that feel strong enough about the necessity of change in official policy by the EM for tornado warnings at night time go to the next City Council Meeting and voice your opinion for the record (and start dialogue going with city officials). If at least a few of you on StormTrack or the NWC show up and talk during open discussion, it WILL get their attention.

The next meeting is this Tuesday (June 23) at 630 pm in downtown Norman at the City Hall Council Chambers, 201 West Gray.

Casey Crosbie