OUN- "May has arrived"

[Adam Atkins]

I couldn't help but include this in a weather and chasing topic. It put a crack of a grin on my face and kind of put my stomach in knots of anticipation as well. Let the games begin!

Here's what the OUN NWS AFD chimes in with:

MONDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY AS SFC BOUNDARY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA... DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE. HOWEVER... WITH A MORE MAY-LIKE SCENARIO... LOW LEVELS RECOVER MORE QUICKLY AND COULD SEE MORE STORMS FOR TUE INTO THU AS SW MID LEVEL FLOW CONT AND DRY LINE REESTABLISHES ITSELF TO OUR WEST. WELCOME TO SPRINGTIME IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FINALLY.

 

[Dan Cook]

:lol:

 

[Mike Mezeul II]

WOOHOO!!! go figure things will start to heat up during finals week *sigh* never fails

 

[Jason McKittrick]

You obviously have to take the 16 day GFS with a grain of salt, but three runs in a row now indicate the return of a rex block over the Mississippi valley by day thirteen. Fortunately the models exhibit a little less skill during spring so there is still some hope. In any event we better enjoy the next ten days or so of May like weather.

 

[David Draun]

Awesome! It's great to feel the springlike weather after a string of cold days. May is here, too bad I have to miss it.

Dan Cook? Your signature says you are "The Nino," but I can see that you are Gomer Pyle. What is your major malfunction? :lol:

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by David Draun
Awesome! It's great to feel the springlike weather after a string of cold days. May is here, too bad I have to miss it.

Dan Cook? Your signature says you are \"The Nino,\" but I can see that you are Gomer Pyle. What is your major malfunction? :lol:

8)

 

[Jason McKittrick]

You obviously have to take the 16 day GFS with a grain of salt, but three runs in a row now indicate the return of a rex block over the Mississippi valley by day thirteen. Fortunately the models exhibit a little less skill during spring so there is still some hope. In any event we better enjoy the next ten days or so of May like weather.

I was just looking back at my post on May 5th in reference to the 10day + GFS forecast. It performed quite well. Back on the 5th it was forecasting a REX block to reform over the Mississippi Valley and midwest for the 15th through the 20th. If I am not mistaken it pretty much nailed it. Kudos GFS. That said the GFS in the short term is now forecasting that eastern US block to break down, but then it quickly reestablishes a new REX block along the west coast lasting clear throught the first week in June. The SW flow that results may be slightly more favorable for storms but the transient CP highs that continue to move through the SE US are preventing anything that even resembles a Bermuda high from forming to provide us with good strong juicy return flow.