NWS Joplin Service Assessment is Out

[Mike Smith]

It is here: www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Joplin_tornado.pdf

I made this a separate thread in case people wish to comment on the assessment rather than the tornado itself.

It pretty well confirms that sounding sirens for SVR plus the obscured nature of the tornado were factors in the high death toll.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

It is here: www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Joplin_tornado.pdf

I made this a separate thread in case people wish to comment on the assessment rather than the tornado itself.

It pretty well confirms that sounding sirens for SVR plus the obscured nature of the tornado were factors in the high death toll.

Mike,

As I have stated before via other modes of communication, it would appear that apathy and complacency are a major contributing factor. It is a shame that it takes a service assessment after the fact to get this point across. I would venture to say that if you polled folks in any given area where warning sirens are active, that you would get the same kind of response. I have been back to Alabama twice since 4/27, most recently this past weekend, where I visited Pleasant Grove and spent over two hours walking around and speaking with residents who were rebuilding and I got the same impression that I get from everyone I know in Nashville. When the sirens go off, people just typically stand around initially and even comment that "the sirens go off all the time and nothing ever happens". It was nice to see this be acknowledged in the assessment.

 

[rdale]

It is a shame that it takes a service assessment after the fact to get this point across

This isn't breaking news It's been known for decades. The issue is - how do we attack it? This is the best service assessment I have ever seen when it comes to the social side...

 

[Clarence Bennett]

This isn't breaking news It's been known for decades. The issue is - how do we attack it? This is the best service assessment I have ever seen when it comes to the social side...

Rdale, you are correct. It isn't a groundbreaking revelation, but it continues to be a problem and no one wants to do anything about it. Without naming cities or names, I know of two emergency managers that refuse to listen to this and refuse to consider technology that will allow sirens to be sounded only within the warning polygon. Why is this? Is it ignorance, stubborness, politics, or all of the above? I really don't care what it is, but it needs addressed.

As a follow up, I thought it was a very good assessment. Very detailed and really hammered on the social aspects.

 

[rdale]

know one wants to do anything about it.

I think the large number of Integrated Warning Teams coming alive would show otherwise...

As to the EM's - I is one of them and I know what you're talking about. That's why the public needs to be educated about the possibilities, and they need to push for that change. I had several EMs respond to our siren policy that they think polygons are a bad idea, because 18 years ago there was a time when a tornado touched down with no warning. Not much can be done to help them.

http://skywatch.org/ows.pdf

 

[Clarence Bennett]

I think the large number of Integrated Warning Teams coming alive would show otherwise...

As to the EM's - I is one of them and I know what you're talking about. That's why the public needs to be educated about the possibilities, and they need to push for that change. I had several EMs respond to our siren policy that they think polygons are a bad idea, because 18 years ago there was a time when a tornado touched down with no warning. Not much can be done to help them.

http://skywatch.org/ows.pdf

Good policy! Emergency Managers need as much education as Joe Public...quite honestly I think the average citizen could really care less about weather on a daily basis and I do not mean that harshly, I just think that is the reality, so I think our education of them can reach a point of diminishing returns. The complacency of the average person didn't get there overnight and this complacency was not decided upon by the average citizen. It is a conditioned response...man this really gets into sociology...ugh.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

I imagine this will also reignite the debate over regular tornado warnings vs. tornado "emergencies." No "tornado emergency" message was ever issued for Joplin, if I remember correctly. But whether that alone would have made a difference is hard to say.

I note that one part of the assessment gave credit to local TV newscasters that showed tower-cam shots of the approaching tornado and "implored" viewers to take shelter immediately. In the YouTube clip that I have seen several times of one such televised warning from a Joplin TV station, to say the newscasters were "imploring" people to take cover is a bit of an understatement. They were literally screaming "TAKE COVER NOW!!!" and you can hear genuine terror in their voices.

I know that newscasters and TV mets have to stay calm and levelheaded particularly in emergency situations, but if an extreme situation is at hand and even a veteran met who's seen it all is truly frightened, he/she shouldn't hesistate to show a little of that concern. I know of at least one instance in my own community (which I've discussed on another thread) where the level of concern in the attitude of a well-known local TV met was the trigger that got people to act when a dangerous tornado was bearing down on them.

 

[J Tyler]

I come from the media side. 29 years broadcasting. I just started a discussion with a group of program directors/general managers/TV mets about this service assessment. I felt it was important to bring it to their attention and asked them to use it to improve THEIR role in serving the public.

Some people, however, simply CAN'T be saved. The example given where the one man had *9* danger indicators go off and he still didn't act on his own! Restaraunt management had to TELL him to go to safety.

I have friends and familiy in Oklahoma, and they STILL talk about KWTV Ch9 met Gary England saying, "You have to be below ground to survive this" when the May 3, 1999 tornado hit Moore. Even the then mayor of Oklahoma City said when he heard Gary say that, it "really got my attention". All tornadoes are not equal, yet all tornado warnings ARE. The public needs to hear a different "warning" when they are dealing with a strong, violent tornado instead of a typical 3 minute duration EF1.

 

[rdale]

I imagine this will also reignite the debate over regular tornado warnings vs. tornado "emergencies." No "tornado emergency" message was ever issued for Joplin, if I remember correctly. But whether that alone would have made a difference is hard to say.

I hope it doesn't reignite TE's. Those need to die. What it does need to do is push forward tiered warnings. I.E. somehow making it clear that a squall line leading edge (QLCS) tornado that might have 60mph winds embedded in a line of 80mph downbursts shouldn't have the exact same TOR product being issued that a mile wide EF5 wedge does.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

All tornadoes are not equal, yet all tornado warnings ARE. The public needs to hear a different "warning" when they are dealing with a strong, violent tornado instead of a typical 3 minute duration EF1.

The problem is that most of the time we don't know that a tornado is going to be violent. The Joplin tornado radar signature looked no different that a lot of other signatures. You are correct, not all tornadoes are equal, but we don't have very good skill at distinguishing the really bad from the ordinary solely from radar data. That's one reason why coming into this year the tornado emergency has a very high false alarm ratio. (Yes, I do mean no tornado on a tornado emergency.)

It doesn't matter if a tornado is EF-0 or EF-5, if it hits you it was a bad one. If it kills someone close to you, you'll always wonder why it wasn't an emergency.

 

[rdale]

The problem is that most of the time we don't know that a tornado is going to be violent.

But many times we know a tornado is NOT going to be violent... Landspout situations, QLCS leading edge events, etc. In the "old days" there was no such thing as a tornado warning for the leading edge. 1) Radar didn't ever show those spinup rotations 2) You really have to dig deep to find rotational damage embedded in straight line winds so 3) blanket SVR's were issued. Everyone was happy. You'd get the occasional "I swear a 30 yard wide tornado hit" complaint but in the grand scheme no harm since they were already being told 80mph straightline winds were coming.

Now SVR's are still issued, with blanket TORs being put on top of them. That's what the policy says has to be done. I don't think it's the best option out there.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Something else that came to my mind just now. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when I was living in Utica, Ill., the town had a siren that was used not only for general emergencies but also to summon the volunteer fire department for fires and accidents. (It also used to blow at noon every day; don't know if it still does.)

When I was growing up everyone in town understood the "code": two blows meant the accident/fire/ambluance call was in town; four blows meant the responders had to take the highway north out of town; six blows meant the emergency was south of town (accidents at a nearby state park usually prompted 6 blows); and 8 blows would mean a general emergency such as a flash flood or tornado. This code may have changed since then but that's how I remember it.

I lived there for the first 20 years of my life and the ONLY time I personally can recall the siren blowing 8 times was for a flash flood. Not once do I recall it ever going off for a tornado warning -- and believe me, I would have remembered it if it had, because as a kid I was absolutely paranoid about tornadoes! If there were other times that the siren went off for a tornado, they must have occurred either before I was born, or when I was too young to remember, or after I had grown up and moved away. Although there were tornado touchdowns in our county, as close as 10-15 miles away during the years I lived there, the siren never went off.

Since the village had a history of never setting off the tornado sirens unless it was absolutely necessary, when the sirens went off on 4/20/04 it made an immediate impression, including on my own parents. Everyone took cover right away, including the 8 people who unfortunately died (some of whom came from a nearby trailer park seeking what they thought to be sturdier shelter). Were it not for the collapse of the Milestone Tap, there would have been NO deaths or serious injuries from that tornado.

In any event, maybe some kind of code whereby sirens blow a certain number of times or with a particular tone that is reserved ONLY for the most dire situations might be helpful in getting people to take sirens more seriously.

 

[rdale]

In any event, maybe some kind of code whereby sirens blow a certain number of times or with a particular tone that is reserved ONLY for the most dire situations might be helpful in getting people to take sirens more seriously.

That's probably not going to work well, but the Outdoor Warning Siren workgroup did determine that repeated (or continuous if capable) siren activation for an active tornado in the area is a great tool.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

But many times we know a tornado is NOT going to be violent... Landspout situations, QLCS leading edge events, etc. In the "old days" there was no such thing as a tornado warning for the leading edge. 1) Radar didn't ever show those spinup rotations 2) You really have to dig deep to find rotational damage embedded in straight line winds so 3) blanket SVR's were issued. Everyone was happy. You'd get the occasional "I swear a 30 yard wide tornado hit" complaint but in the grand scheme no harm since they were already being told 80mph straightline winds were coming.

Now SVR's are still issued, with blanket TORs being put on top of them. That's what the policy says has to be done. I don't think it's the best option out there.

I won't dispute what you are saying. However, to me, this can be addressed in the context of the current paradigm by changing bad practices not the introduction of more warning types.

A legitimate question is, "Should the NWS be concerned with capturing every perceived tornado with a tornado warning?" my answer is no. Focus on the tornadoes that have the potential to persist longer than the time itntakes to craft the warning.

 

[Andy Wade]

It was noted in the assessment that just under half of residents were first made aware of a severe weather threat by the arrival of the storm. Had they known there was a moderate risk for severe weather (not to mention a 10% chance of significant tornadoes), maybe some would've considered the possibility that this was not an ordinary storm. Does anyone remember those old Smokey the Bear road signs that gave the level of fire danger for the day? Would similar SPC risk level signs in communities across the Plains and Midwest be useful? At any rate, they should be much more cost-effective than brand-new state-of-the-art siren systems, which most small towns simply can't or won't afford and which would have done nothing for drivers who encountered the tornado as it crossed I-44 outside town (roadside memorials still stand there). It's a low-tech and quirky idea, but it's also cheap and easy and raises awareness well in advance of the first tornado warning.