NWS HotSeat

[Alex Lamers]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/HotSeat/hotseatstart.shtml

My POD was 86%, 10/12 on SVRs, 3/3 on TORs with only 2 missed SVR reports. Interesting. I wonder if they'll post more.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

Wow, that is pretty neat! I hit all of my tornado warnings, but issued a few too many SVR's. Thanks for posting!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

SVR
Issued: 24
Verified: 12
Lead Time: 7 min
Missed: 1

TORs
Issued: 10
Verified: 4
Lead Time: 8 min
Missed: 0

POD: 94%
FAR: 52%
CSI: 45%

Pretty fun exercise. Too bad you only get one bref and srv tilt... Of course, a little more time would help too, but I know they probably wanted to make this a relatively short exercise. The supercells in far sw AL had some nice rotation from time to time, so my tor warnings for those hurt a bit.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I believe they are coming up with more, this is a newer version than the first one that I saw about a month or two ago. This one has some more features and the way their front page looks it seems like they will add more.

 

[Donald Van Dyke]

Here are my stats for this plus some stats for the NWS as a whole that I managed to dig up from different places after googling around a while. My combined scores were near the NWS averages for the year 2000. Hard to compare one event to averages over an entire year though.

SVRs

Issued: 20
Verified: 10
Lead Time: 5 min
Missed: 3

TORs

Issued: 15
Verified: 9
Lead Time: 8 min
Missed: 0

TOR POD: 100%
TOR FAR: 40%
TOR CSI: 60%

SVR POD: 77%
SVR FAR: 50%
SVR CSI: 43%

Combined POD: 86%
Combined FAR: 45%
Combined CSI: 50%


1997 Combined POD average for NWS: 82%
1997 Combined FAR average for NWS: 50%
1997 Combined CSI average for NWS: 45%

1998 Combined POD average for NWS: 84%
1998 Combined FAR average for NWS: 48%
1998 Combined CSI average for NWS: 47%

1999 Combined POD average for NWS: 82%
1999 Combined FAR average for NWS: 47%
1999 Combined CSI average for NWS: 48%
1999 Combined Lead Time: 17 minutes
1999 Tornado Only Lead Time: 12 minutes

2000 Combined POD average for NWS: 84%
2000 Combined FAR average for NWS: 45%
2000 Combined CSI average for NWS: 50%

2001 Combined CSI average for NWS: 54%

POD = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events)
FAR = unverified warnings / (verified warnings + unverified warnings)
CSI = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events + unverified warnings)

 

[Jennifer Combs]

SVRs
Issued: 17
Verified: 11
Lead Time: 5 Minutes
Missed: 5

TORs
Issued: 4
Verified: 3
Lead Time: 6 Minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 73%
FAR: 33%
CSI: 53%

That is a pretty neat program. Looks like I need practice though.

 

[Joe Zemek]

What a neat excercise! I did pretty well but for a couple boxes that were not perfectly placed. Oh, and my tornado lead time of 3 minutes Sorry, 'Bama!

I'm already looking forward to their more difficult option.

 

[MatthewCarman]

That was asome thanks for posting it for us alex. I would love to see more of these made with more time and harder scenarios.

POD: 80%

FAR: 56%

CSI: 39%

SVRs

Issued: 34
Verrified: 13
Lead Time: 5 Minutes
Missed: 4

TORs
Issued: 5
Verified: 4
Lead Time: 5 minutes
Missed: 0

Thanks for that was realy neat!

 

[Jeff Miller]

POD: 83%
FAR: 48%
CSI: 46%

SVR: Issued: 17
VERIFIED: 10
LEAD TIME: 6 Minutes
MISSED: 3

TOR: ISSUED: 12
VERIFIED: 5
LEAD TIME: 4 Minutes
MISSED: 0

 

[Kevin Bowman]

POD: 76%
FAR: 51%
CSI: 41%

SVR: Issued: 21
VERIFIED: 9
LEAD TIME: 4 Minutes
MISSED: 4

TOR: ISSUED: 6
VERIFIED:4
LEAD TIME: 12 Minutes
MISSED: 0

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

im going to wait and take that test when they add the different tilts cause its just not indicative of reality otherwise.

But just for laughs and giggles, they should make the location somewhere in southern Utah.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Oh, and my tornado lead time of 3 minutes Sorry, 'Bama![/b]

Hey, no problem----I think that's about all we had here in November, 1989.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Good day,

I have a newbie Question to ask. I have been wondering about this and instead of using google I thought I would ask you guys. I dont know what POD,FAR and CSI means? I know alot of weather terms but have never realy heard of these before can someone please tell me what they mean? Thanks I apreciate it.

MatthewCarman.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Good day,

I have a newbie Question to ask. I have been wondering about this and instead of using google I thought I would ask you guys. I dont know what POD,FAR and CSI means? I know alot of weather terms but have never realy heard of these before can someone please tell me what they mean? Thanks I apreciate it.

MatthewCarman. [/b]

FAR --> False Alarm Ratio -- basically the number of warnings issued that did not verify (relative to the total number of warnings issued)
POD --> Probability of Detection -- basically, the number of events that were warned (relative to the total number of events)
CSI --> Critical Skill Index -- a statist that combines the effects of FAR and POD.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("Donald van Dyke")</div>

POD = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events)
FAR = unverified warnings / (verified warnings + unverified warnings)
CSI = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events + unverified warnings)[/b]

The table below outlines it pretty well ** table from http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/nexrad-car.pdf :

 

[Bill Tabor]

I agree...much fun!

SVRs
Issued: 19
Verified: 5
Lead Time: 8 minutes
Missed 2

TORs
Issued: 17
Verified: 10
Lead Time: 6 minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 88%
FAR: 58%
CSI: 39%

I can begin to see how this trade gets 'edgy'.