NWS HotSeat

SVR
Issued: 24
Verified: 12
Lead Time: 7 min
Missed: 1

TORs
Issued: 10
Verified: 4
Lead Time: 8 min
Missed: 0

POD: 94%
FAR: 52%
CSI: 45%

Pretty fun exercise. Too bad you only get one bref and srv tilt... Of course, a little more time would help too, but I know they probably wanted to make this a relatively short exercise. The supercells in far sw AL had some nice rotation from time to time, so my tor warnings for those hurt a bit.
 
I believe they are coming up with more, this is a newer version than the first one that I saw about a month or two ago. This one has some more features and the way their front page looks it seems like they will add more.
 
Here are my stats for this plus some stats for the NWS as a whole that I managed to dig up from different places after googling around a while. My combined scores were near the NWS averages for the year 2000. Hard to compare one event to averages over an entire year though.

SVRs

Issued: 20
Verified: 10
Lead Time: 5 min
Missed: 3

TORs

Issued: 15
Verified: 9
Lead Time: 8 min
Missed: 0

TOR POD: 100%
TOR FAR: 40%
TOR CSI: 60%

SVR POD: 77%
SVR FAR: 50%
SVR CSI: 43%

Combined POD: 86%
Combined FAR: 45%
Combined CSI: 50%


1997 Combined POD average for NWS: 82%
1997 Combined FAR average for NWS: 50%
1997 Combined CSI average for NWS: 45%

1998 Combined POD average for NWS: 84%
1998 Combined FAR average for NWS: 48%
1998 Combined CSI average for NWS: 47%

1999 Combined POD average for NWS: 82%
1999 Combined FAR average for NWS: 47%
1999 Combined CSI average for NWS: 48%
1999 Combined Lead Time: 17 minutes
1999 Tornado Only Lead Time: 12 minutes

2000 Combined POD average for NWS: 84%
2000 Combined FAR average for NWS: 45%
2000 Combined CSI average for NWS: 50%

2001 Combined CSI average for NWS: 54%

POD = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events)
FAR = unverified warnings / (verified warnings + unverified warnings)
CSI = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events + unverified warnings)
 
SVRs
Issued: 17
Verified: 11
Lead Time: 5 Minutes
Missed: 5

TORs
Issued: 4
Verified: 3
Lead Time: 6 Minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 73%
FAR: 33%
CSI: 53%

That is a pretty neat program. Looks like I need practice though.
 
What a neat excercise! I did pretty well but for a couple boxes that were not perfectly placed. Oh, and my tornado lead time of 3 minutes :( Sorry, 'Bama!

I'm already looking forward to their more difficult option.
 
That was asome thanks for posting it for us alex. I would love to see more of these made with more time and harder scenarios.

POD: 80%

FAR: 56%

CSI: 39%

SVRs

Issued: 34
Verrified: 13
Lead Time: 5 Minutes
Missed: 4

TORs
Issued: 5
Verified: 4
Lead Time: 5 minutes
Missed: 0

Thanks for that was realy neat!
 
POD: 83%
FAR: 48%
CSI: 46%

SVR: Issued: 17
VERIFIED: 10
LEAD TIME: 6 Minutes
MISSED: 3

TOR: ISSUED: 12
VERIFIED: 5
LEAD TIME: 4 Minutes
MISSED: 0
 
POD: 76%
FAR: 51%
CSI: 41%

SVR: Issued: 21
VERIFIED: 9
LEAD TIME: 4 Minutes
MISSED: 4

TOR: ISSUED: 6
VERIFIED:4
LEAD TIME: 12 Minutes
MISSED: 0
 
im going to wait and take that test when they add the different tilts cause its just not indicative of reality otherwise.

But just for laughs and giggles, they should make the location somewhere in southern Utah.
 
Good day,

I have a newbie Question to ask. I have been wondering about this and instead of using google I thought I would ask you guys. I dont know what POD,FAR and CSI means? I know alot of weather terms but have never realy heard of these before can someone please tell me what they mean? Thanks I apreciate it.

MatthewCarman.
 
Good day,

I have a newbie Question to ask. I have been wondering about this and instead of using google I thought I would ask you guys. I dont know what POD,FAR and CSI means? I know alot of weather terms but have never realy heard of these before can someone please tell me what they mean? Thanks I apreciate it.

MatthewCarman. [/b]

FAR --> False Alarm Ratio -- basically the number of warnings issued that did not verify (relative to the total number of warnings issued)
POD --> Probability of Detection -- basically, the number of events that were warned (relative to the total number of events)
CSI --> Critical Skill Index -- a statist that combines the effects of FAR and POD.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("Donald van Dyke")</div>
POD = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events)
FAR = unverified warnings / (verified warnings + unverified warnings)
CSI = warned events / (warned events + unwarned events + unverified warnings)[/b]

The table below outlines it pretty well ** table from http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/nexrad-car.pdf :
stats.PNG
 
I agree...much fun!

SVRs
Issued: 19
Verified: 5
Lead Time: 8 minutes
Missed 2

TORs
Issued: 17
Verified: 10
Lead Time: 6 minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 88%
FAR: 58%
CSI: 39%

I can begin to see how this trade gets 'edgy'.
 
Thank You so much Jeff that is what I wanted to know. I didnt even notice someone had already posted what they ment. I always seem to miss a few storms but I am getting alot better at it. I have played this 5 times :)

Matthew Carman.
 
SVR
ISSUED 32
VERIFIED 12
LEAD TIME 7 MINUTES
MISSED 1


TOR
ISSUED 11
VERIFIED 5
LEAD TIME 5 MINUTES
MISSED 0



POD 94%
FAR 60%
CSI 38%
 
SVRs
Issued: 23
Verified: 14
Lead Time: 6 minutes
Missed: 1

TORs
Issued: 3
Verified: 2
Lead Time: 7 minutes
Missed: 0

POD: 94%
FAR: 38%
CSI: 59%

Pretty cool. :)
 
Tornado:

Issued: 8
Verified: 4
Av. Lead Time: 6 mins
Missed = 0

Severe:

Issued = 20
Verified = 14
Av. Lead time: 6 mins
Missed = 3

POD: 85%
FAR: 35%
CSI= 58%

Not too terribly great -- a few of those SVR reports snuck up on me at the end. Would never have guessed that kinda hail from that kind of radar signature.
 
Wanted to let everyone know scenario2 for this neat game is coming out soon so if you havent tried it yet you should do so it is lots of fun and you get a feel for forcasting storms. I have tried this 4 times now and it is worth it so give it a try!
 
Very cool. Unfortunately I closed the window after the simulation without writing down my scores. But I know I issued 4 Tors and every damn one of them verified, missing none - beat that! I did much worse with the severes, however... I issued 17 and I think 10 verified, with 7 misses. I don't remember the exact lead times, but they were pretty good. A great exercise, thanks for posting.
 
Back
Top