Normal season patterns now in effect?

[bill mudd]

are we able to say that the jet has returned with normal patterns - and if so could we say this week might be an active outbreak week?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, "Normal" for this year doesn't mean anything LOL. "Normal", in addition, for this time of year would move all the action from northern Kansas and into the northern US, which is "booooo" for us southern plains chasers.

I do like the more favorable upper-air pattern that appears to set up by next week (per GFS/ECMWF). Now, weather we can bring significant activity into the southern plains (at least into OK) remains to be seen. The southwestern US can bake this time of year, resulting in a very hot EML and very stout capping.