Next Hurricane?

Bill Tabor

Bill Tabor

EF5
Joined
Apr 16, 2004
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Location
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Based on the looks of satellite imagery..I'm guessing the tropical wave currently located at 47W and 12N has the next best chance of becoming something strong (tropical storm / hurricane). Supposedly it will be moving into more favorable conditions as it heads west. I believe I can even briefly make out a small pseudo 'eye' on this thing. Thoughts?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Looks like this may be called Invest AL94:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_late2.png
 
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I would give this system a few days, the disturbance has to shake off the effects of all that subsidence. I would think once the system makes it to the Lesser Antilles the convection will flareup much like the one about 3 weeks ago.
 
Nothing really scientific on my part. I'm not really in the know on hurricanes and tropical systems. I just have a feeling about this one though. Not sure why. I think part of it is that I know we are due for more activity and it appears to be in about the location I'd expect to see the next system form. Checking NHC they say it appears more organized and has a chance to become a tropical depression soon. They mention a hurricane hunter aircraft may be dispatched on Friday to check on this one.
 
Well, it appears that the what looks like a depression just to the east of the Windward Islands is well on the way to becoming TS Felix. This as Matt eluded to should go straight across the Caribbean to maybe Honduras or Belize next week..
 
I am a little surprised it was not called earlier today (Friday), but will they jump it to TS status by 5pm EDT, I bet by 11pm EDT, it might make it.
 
Just back in from a bird hunting trip. Yep, looks like I was right about this one. Even when it was a wave it just looked organized. I saw the rotation with brief eye and seemed to have inflow from all directions and thus favorable to me. Guess it will landfall Cat 4 or 5 tonight.
 
The next Hurricane is Henriette in the Pacific ocean and it is making landfall on nw Mexico and could bring alot of rain to the south west. I think Henriette is a CAT 1 Hurricane.

Thoughts?
 
So the title says when will we have our next hurricane and we have our next hurricane. Regardless of when it was started I changed the discusion because we have our next hurricane and this one will affect the US by bringing lots of rain and tropical moisture to the southwest. Do you think the recent CA flooding could be worse when this system moves through?

Topics go off topic all the time and I stayed on topic with the title so I do not see the big deal but thanks for pointing that out to me Neal in the futer I will start a new thread for this.

Your friend MatthewCarman.
 
David Wolfson said:
The current Invests 90, 91, and 92 all seem to have legs on satellite this morning, each with potentially nasty tracks and SHIPS promoting them to hurricane status.
Click to expand...

92 would have my vote, though it is a few days out, i may have spoke too soon.
 
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Attm, it looks like Invest 90L is going to be our next tropical depression. A large area of showers/thunderstorms a couple hundred miles across is beginning to show signs of better organization. Currently located at approximately 10 N and 40 W, the system continues to get better organized as it moves westward. With the system moving into an increasingly favorable environment I would guess that 90L will be upgraded to T.D. #9 either by late today or early tomorrow, and by Wednesday we will likely have T.S. Humberto.
 
Mark Farnik said:
Attm, it looks like Invest 90L is going to be our next tropical depression. A large area of showers/thunderstorms a couple hundred miles across is beginning to show signs of better organization. Currently located at approximately 10 N and 40 W, the system continues to get better organized as it moves westward. With the system moving into an increasingly favorable environment I would guess that 90L will be upgraded to T.D. #9 either by late today or early tomorrow, and by Wednesday we will likely have T.S. Humberto.
Click to expand...

I think the system you are referring too is 91L, which looks very impressive on the satellite as of the last few hours. It appears that a ball of persistent convection has formed near what appears to be the LLC. I wouldn't be surprised if NHC declared TD#8 by midday tomorrow.
 
90L (in the Western Gulf) may be a td tomorrow (wednesday) as well. The earlier convection had died away but you can see a well formed area of rotation on IR. Not a lot of convection with that attm but it certainly looks like it has a good chance to develop before it gets into Texas.

91L (east of windwards) looks even better and probably is already a td if not a weak ts already.
 
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