New Hurricane Forecast is in!

[Aric Cylkowski]

NOAA has decided to update its hurricane forecast, with the peak of the hurricane season just around the corner.

Total predicted for the 2005 season:

18-21 Named Storms
9-11 Hurricanes
5-7 Major Hurricanes

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm

 

[David Draun]

NOAA has decided to update its hurricane forecast, with the peak of the hurricane season just around the corner.

Total predicted for the 2005 season:

18-21 Named Storms
9-11 Hurricanes
5-7 Major Hurricanes

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm

That has got to be a major thing right there. 21? That goes far into the alphabet. This is gonna continue to be a record season.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Things better get going again pretty soon. Things have been slow for a couple weeks now.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Swweettt.. Should be a good test year for my hurricane tracking map

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Officially, they're calling for a "hyperactive season"... LOL that doesn't sound like the most technical of language..

An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective intensity and duration of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season. The ACE index is also used to define above-, near-, and below-normal hurricane seasons. A value of 117% of the median (Median value is 87.5) corresponds to the lower boundary for an above-normal season.

For the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the outlook calls for an extremely active season, with the seasonal ACE index forecasted to range from 180%-270% of the median. This range is above the 175% baseline that Goldenberg et al. (Science, 2001) use to define a hyperactive season. The outlook also calls for a seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms, with 9-11 becoming hurricanes, and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]. Because the ACE index does not directly account for the numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the predicted ACE range can verify even if these numbers fall outside their predicted ranges.

--> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl.../hurricane.html

 

[Bill Tabor]

Here's the link to the NOAA report:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl.../hurricane.html

 

[Perry Williams]

Things better get going again pretty soon. Things have been slow for a couple weeks now.

Yes, but even so....we're still over two weeks AHEAD of record pace. The earliest date on which storm #9 has ever formed is August 20 (1936), with 1933 not far behind (8/24). If TD #9 becomes TS Irene as forecast tomorrow (8/05), we're still over two weeks ahead of record pace.

Just for the record, the most named storms of record by the end of August is 12. Looking over the latest model guidance, I won't be surprised if we have storm #12 ("Lee") by mid-August (8/16)...with over two weeks left to break the record.

 

[cdcollura]

Not enough letters?

The list of the 2005 hurricane / tropical names are below (keep in mind we have only 21 available names since the letters "Q", "U", "X", "Y", and "Z" have uncommon names and are not used) ...

1 Arlene
2 Bret
3 Cindy
4 Dennis
5 Emily
6 Franklin
7 Gert
8 Harvey
9 Irene
10 Jose
11 Katrina
12 Lee
13 Maria
14 Nate
15 Ophelia
16 Philippe
17 Rita
18 Stan
19 Tammy
20 Vince
21 Wilma

Notice that with only 21 names, and predicting up to 21 named storms, I am curious what will happen, say, if whe have 22 storms?

Back in 1995, the busiest season in 50 years, we went all the way to the "T" storm.