New Chase Case #1

[Sam Kennedy]

I thought I would start up the chase case scenarios again.

So here we go:

1200z surface(South):

1200z surface(North):

850mb:

700mb:

500mb:

300mb:

Choose which state you will chase in, and if you want, which counties. I will give a few extra updates throughout the day(Visual Satellite, Radar). There is no bonus for guessing the date, since that isn't how chasing works

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Walnut, IA. (This is my first time trying this.) I noted the 68/68 at Red Oak, IA, the SW flow at 850, and I wish the 300 and 300 were more westerly.

Since I live in Omaha, W IA is my target--I don't know about KS and OK, though. Looks more unidirectional with height the further south you go.

I still need help with determining what cap, if any, there is.

 

[David Wolfson]

It looks like a pretty classic north-central KS setup to me. Lee low on the CO/KS border will develop somewhat during the day somewhat backing the winds, developing a modest dryline, and pulling the moisture toward the front on the KS/NE border. Enough cooler air looks to advect from the west to take care of what capping exists.

I'll call it for morning in Phillipsburg, KS, with good east/west options south of the front.

P.S. Thanks for doing this, Sam. These are fun, instructive, and avoid the perils of virtual chasing.

 

[Shane Adams]

Looks like the deep moisture is well-east of the dryline, meaning storms will fire and then have to move east before they become tornadic. I'm content to head to Medicine Lodge, KS and hang out eating Pizza Hut pizza and drinking a few beers, while severe storms to my west slowly come to me (and the juice). The gamble is they might not reach me before dark, but I'm betting they will

 

[Danny Neal]

Looks like the deep moisture is well-east of the dryline, meaning storms will fire and then have to move east before they become tornadic. I'm content to head to Medicine Lodge, KS and hang out eating Pizza Hut pizza and drinking a few beers, while severe storms to my west slowly come to me (and the juice). The gamble is they might not reach me before dark, but I'm betting they will

Lol, I was just typing my response saying I would be in Pratt, Kansas eating at the Pizza Hut waiting for isolated storms to develop. You stole my glory Shane-r! Low - risk/ High Reward move. I can sacrifice a chase to hope for a couple isolated supercells to fire out W of my target. Lack of appreciable moisture and slightly veered winds down here may be a thorn in the side!

 

[Jeff Duda]

This doesn't strike me as an obvious good set up for severe weather. Some fields look good, others not so much. There's definitely a warm front draped across southern Iowa through southern Nebraska, where it becomes more cold front-like down through Texas (significant drying down there, too). No obvious low pressure centers, just a generalized area of somewhat lower pressure from N OK northward through the rest of the plains. There's really good convergence along the boundary near Hastings.

Upper air analysis shows two jet streaks, one stronger than the other. The weaker one is rounding the base of the 300 mb trough over Las Vegas, and the associated upward motion from the right entrance region later on (if it moved that way) could favor action along the cold front in W TX/NW OK, possibly SW KS. The stronger one is zonal over the upper Midwest into southern Canada. The right entrance region of that streak favors areas north of the warm front for enhanced upward motion. Should the warm front really press north, it looks like places like N IA/S MN could be in a good spot.

700 mb chart shows some capping over W TX, so that would really make it difficult for any convection to pop up there. However, at 850, it's not much warmer and is significantly more moist in that same region. That could be due to elevation making the surface at W TX being nearly at 850, though. The northern target (NE/IA/MO/KS) isn't as warm at 700, but is pretty dry, but that's just moisture, not temp.

The one factor that really doesn't help the northern target is upper level vort adv. Both the 300 mb and especially the 500 mb trough axes are way west for significant PVA to kick in if this is at 12Z. Unless that trough is really cruisin (which upper level winds suggest it isn't), PVA will better impact the W TX target.

Since I'm based in IA and my budget is low, I probably wouldn't even chase this unless things really changed throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. But, if I could go, I would probably stick around central Iowa and see what the warm front does. I'd probably stay near it.

 

[Chris Allington]

I kinda struggled with this one for awhile... there are caveats to both targets.

One thing I really don't like about the northern target is the veered SSWrly surface winds across most of Kansas, Eastern Nebraska, and Western Iowa... but I like the better directional shear at the same time.

I like the surface winds better in the broad warm sector across OK/ TX but as Jeff pointed out... capping is much more pronounced and upper support seems to be lagging behind a bit.

That being said based on the current maps I'm going to stick to the norhtern target, mainly because I like the well defined boundary and directional shear a bit. I like would try to position just south of the warmfront and near the surface low which appears to be located in South Central Nebraska based on the surface obs, and will probably move to about SUX later in the afternoon. Im gonna head just a bit northeast to Dunlap, IA. I don't want to get real far from that surface low and may move a bit later depending on the updates.

 

[scott r currens]

I'm making the 2.5 hour drive from Leavenworth to Salina. NW Kansas looks good but I'd like to check the 18z data before commiting to a target.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'd set up near the Alva, OK area.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'd be setting up shop in Hill City, KS.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

Probably near Hutchinson, KS with my vehicle pointed west.

 

[Dean Baron]

Hmmm... either i'm missing something or this is a pretty difficult setup to forecast. Like someone else said there is a really obvious warm front sitting across southern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Surface winds are weak on both sides of the warm front and moisture doesnt look as good as it does farther south. However, farther south it looks like the winds start to veer well ahead of the cold front (and dry line??) and im not impressed given this is a southwest flow setup. My guess is that the center of the low is sitting somewhere in northwest Kansas or southwest Nebraska with a cold front draped southwest in to southeast Colorado and well in to New Mexico. I would sit in either Grand Island, NE or Alva, OK.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm in Des Moines and ready to adjust from there. I think the veered 850s will back a bit, I like the backing surface winds and 40 kt H5, and it looks to me like the upper level jet will strengthen later on and provide some lift.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'll be sitting in Liberal Kansas.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I'll start in Belleville, Kansas and will be ready to move west if necessary.