Mystery setup

Dan Robinson

I had a strange dream a few weeks ago that I checked the SPC Day 1 outlook to find this:

convoutlook1.gif


What kind of synoptic/mesoscale setups can you come up with to match this type of categorical risk graphic, and where would you chase?
 
I've also wondered what a high risk for the entire country would look like, following standard convention.

convoutlook2.gif


Think they'd they make the letters for 'high' a little bigger, or make them flash on and off or something.
 
I had a strange dream a few weeks ago that I checked the SPC Day 1 outlook to find this:

convoutlook1.gif


What kind of synoptic/mesoscale setups can you come up with to match this type of categorical risk graphic, and where would you chase?

All I can dream up would be some type of insane boundary, with decent-enough dewpoint depressions north of it to sustain a tornadic storm for a while longer than a normal "cool-side" storm (to cover the Slight/Mod areas). Perhaps a sharp area of divergence in central TX spreading eastward over the middle expanse of the High risk area, with a strong El-Nino type STJ nosing in over LA/AL for the "meat" of the High risk area trigger. And of course, you gotta have that tropical cyclone off the northern coast of FL/GA/southern SC for the easternmost trigger.

Hell I have no clue
 
I really don't think that there's any possible setup that would equate to that kind of an outlook. No way would there ever be a high risk for the Florida Keys all the way through SE Virginia and all the way back into Texas.

...Alex Lamers...
 
without question I'd target somewhere around Abilene since that's the only place in the risk area with the combination of a good road network, few trees, and fairly flat terrain.
 
I think I would head to the northern mountains, depends on the day 2 and day 3... then dig a deep hole and climb in and wait for a few weeks!

Jared
 
1. After this years outlooks all it would take is a good canadian cold front.
2. A drunk forecaster in Norman.
3. A Chaser convention in Hallem.
4. A really strong early November Low about (960) digging quickly through north texas with an exagerated warm front sagging from NC to Texas/Arkansas border with a category five hurricane in the central gulf and another about to hit Georgia/Florida border with a dryline moving quickly from Abilene all the way into the east La.
5. A dream a stormchaser has.

I think we are officially bored. Thanks Dan for the quick relief.
 
My own thoughts were a long stationary front draped across the northern extremes of the risk area, with the front progged to begin moving southward as the day progressed. Then, the boundary would interact with landfalling circulations of one or two weak, and almost dissipated, tropical systems in the Gulf and another in the Atlantic, with plenty of breaks in cloud cover to allow significant insolation in the high-shear environment.

As far as where to chase, I had this dream while in the Plains, so I'd have to go with the central Texas region for convenience/terrain if I was there. If I was home in WV, the coastal Plain of NC from RDU eastward would be my choice.
 
This makes me wonder what a modern day outlook for 040374-1200 thru 040474-1200 would look like. I bet something similar in area if you cut off that risk at northern FL.
 
Huh.

That's the sort of outlook SPC would get from NASA instead of 12z soundings.

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING ARE MAGNITUDE OF INLAND PENETRATION BY ATLANTIC AND GULF MEGATSUNAMIS GENERATED BY ASTEROID IMPACTS W AND E OF FLORIDA AROUND 2200Z, AS WELL AS BLASTWAVE-GENERATED SEVERE PULSE CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG WHAT WILL SUDDENLY BECOME A MASSIVE COLD FRONT SURGING SSE INTO EXTREME LOW PRESSURE AT IMPACT SITES. INLAND INTRUSION OF BLAST-HEATED SEAWATER COULD GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 17,000 J/KG, IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT. THEN THERE'S THE SHEAR.

MUCH OF HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE DOWNGRADED IF IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT NO ONE HAS SURVIVED THE MEGATSUNAMIS AND ARE THUS NOT IN DANGER FROM SEVERE STORMS.

...GETTING OUT OF HERE...
 
Uh.... :?:

Did my Mei Yu front moved to US ? :lol:

Here in China could be a possible situation, in early spring with a STJ splitted by Himalaya coming in from SW.

:wink:
 
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