JamesCaruso
Staff member
In a recent post in an unrelated thread, I "threatened" to start a new thread about this, so here goes...
Obviously model performance continues to improve year after year, and the HRRR model in particular sometimes predicts individual supercells with startling accuracy. Of course, its success rate at the storm scale is spotty, and we are not yet at the point where we target an area just because the HRRR shows a storm blowing up there.
But WHAT IF the HRRR improves to the point where we could be reasonably certain of a supercell forming at a certain time and place? Suppose it could pinpoint the time and place of tornadogenesis, and the tornado's path length and duration? (I have often imagined an admittedly far-fetched scenario where the authorities would set up a "parade route" for the tornado, with bleachers for viewing, maybe a festival and opening band before the main event )
If we ever get to this level of predictability, how would this impact your enjoyment of chasing? Would you still want to chase?
As for me, much of the challenge and the thrill would be gone... I would still want to see the storm, the same way I enjoy watching the surf be kicked up when a hurricane is offshore, even though that is predicted and publicized well in advance. But the loss of the forecasting uncertainty, the lack of challenge, and the elimination of the possibility of failure would take much of the fun out of storm chasing for me. It just would not be nearly as satisfying if the mystery were solved and the ending of the story is known. (On a side note, realizing that the challenge and possibility of failure are so much a part of what makes storm chasing enjoyable, has helped me learn to deal with chasing failures and frustrations... Or at least I try to remind myself about this!)
Of course the natural second question is, do you think we will ever get to this hypothetical level of predictability? If so, to what degree - for example, able to at least predict the storm but not the tornado? In what timeframe do you think we will get there? (Hopefully not while I am still able to chase!)
Even if you don't think we can ever get there because of chaos theory or whatever, I still hope you will share your thoughts on how you would feel about chasing IF perfect prediction could ever be achieved, or how you might feel with various levels of predictability - for example, maybe you would still go see a predicted supercell if tornado formation was still an uncertain variable, but if that could also be predicted maybe you lose interest entirely?
Obviously model performance continues to improve year after year, and the HRRR model in particular sometimes predicts individual supercells with startling accuracy. Of course, its success rate at the storm scale is spotty, and we are not yet at the point where we target an area just because the HRRR shows a storm blowing up there.
But WHAT IF the HRRR improves to the point where we could be reasonably certain of a supercell forming at a certain time and place? Suppose it could pinpoint the time and place of tornadogenesis, and the tornado's path length and duration? (I have often imagined an admittedly far-fetched scenario where the authorities would set up a "parade route" for the tornado, with bleachers for viewing, maybe a festival and opening band before the main event )
If we ever get to this level of predictability, how would this impact your enjoyment of chasing? Would you still want to chase?
As for me, much of the challenge and the thrill would be gone... I would still want to see the storm, the same way I enjoy watching the surf be kicked up when a hurricane is offshore, even though that is predicted and publicized well in advance. But the loss of the forecasting uncertainty, the lack of challenge, and the elimination of the possibility of failure would take much of the fun out of storm chasing for me. It just would not be nearly as satisfying if the mystery were solved and the ending of the story is known. (On a side note, realizing that the challenge and possibility of failure are so much a part of what makes storm chasing enjoyable, has helped me learn to deal with chasing failures and frustrations... Or at least I try to remind myself about this!)
Of course the natural second question is, do you think we will ever get to this hypothetical level of predictability? If so, to what degree - for example, able to at least predict the storm but not the tornado? In what timeframe do you think we will get there? (Hopefully not while I am still able to chase!)
Even if you don't think we can ever get there because of chaos theory or whatever, I still hope you will share your thoughts on how you would feel about chasing IF perfect prediction could ever be achieved, or how you might feel with various levels of predictability - for example, maybe you would still go see a predicted supercell if tornado formation was still an uncertain variable, but if that could also be predicted maybe you lose interest entirely?
