Midwest snowstorm potential 3/19/10-3/21/10

[Jason Boggs]

Chuck, just to clarify, the warning was issued based on impact as opposed to snowfall amounts alone. Since near blizzard conditions are forecast for several hours, it was felt that a winter storm warning was warranted over just an advisory. We have received no reports from the eastern counties in the TX Panhandle so its difficult to assess the success of the warning at this point but based on Amarillo's experience, I think it was well justified.

Yep, I agree 100% Mike. Like you said, the impact of the event made the difference in the issuance of the warning, not just snowfall totals. Very well done guys and gals!

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

We already have a light dusting of snow on the rooftops and some areas of grass in south Tulsa. It appears precip type is changing back and forth from a heavy drizzle to light snow.

 

[Nathan Withrow]

Snow is already sticking to the ground here in Southeast Kansas. Looks like I have just about a dusting. Things will go down hill from here.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Here in Olathe (SW of KC) we have about 3" of snow with the next part of the system on our heels and this batch will likely bring another 3-5" of snow with it.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Snow OK

Overnight in Owasso .10 freezing rain overnight with .25 of sleet.

Moderate snow big flakes falling now.

WOW!!
New 12Z Nam in 850,700,500mb lows now track farther north than 0Z progs from SC-OK then stalls over SE OK/SW-AR tonight into Sunday. This will create intense wrap around snow from SW/MO across NE OK. New QPF ending late Sunday afternoon has 1.50" for Tulsa with 2.5" at Joplin. This is suggesting storm totals could range from 12+” Tulsa to 20+” Joplin.

http://grib2.com/animate/nam218nojava.php3?fcsthour=36&type=SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP&region=S-PLAINS

Update 12Z Nam Snow Totals for 36hr: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_36HR.gif

 

[Michael Boyd]

Break the record?

So far here on the western sides of OKC today I've had a good 3-4 inches of snow and it continues to fall. I have 12 to 18 inch drifts in the yard; Will Rogers needs 4.6 inches to break the all time record...

 

[Jason Bolt]

Outside JLN Had a changeover to FRZA around 4am and by 10am had between a tenth to 2/10th glaze on elevated surfaces, vehicles, etc. Shortly after 10am had a changeover to SN then back to PL. That's what we're getting now. I am also eating my words about ground temps. Most of the PL is melting and roads are only slushy in spots, but it's obvious that even a moderate snowfall rate will put some inches on at least the grassy areas. New NAM totals are not real pleasing for NE OK/ SE KS/ SW MO given the potential for wraparound. I will be looking for some photo ops and will update later.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Hmmm... Woke up this morning to about 4 inches I would say here in Edmond. The roads are slush covered. The radar is pretty dissapointing, the system really picked up speed last night.

Looks like the wrap around of the storm is finally getting its act together in SW OK, slowly creeping E and NE. I think C may be spared if this wrap around never fully fills in to the north, looks like the system is moving more east than earlier forecasts. Could leave OKC area in a dry spot.

I agree it looks like E/NE OK is going to get slammed when the wrap around and we could maybe see a 20" total around the E Tulsa area if it verifies. That would be pretty intense. What kind of total do you all have in the Tulsa area already?

 

[Chuck Robertson]

Chuck, just to clarify, the warning was issued based on impact as opposed to snowfall amounts alone. Since near blizzard conditions are forecast for several hours, it was felt that a winter storm warning was warranted over just an advisory. We have received no reports from the eastern counties in the TX Panhandle so its difficult to assess the success of the warning at this point but based on Amarillo's experience, I think it was well justified.

Mike, please understand that my issue was not with the NWS forecast for 3-5 inches for the eastern panhandle. You guys know a heck of a lot more than I do when it comes to forecasting this stuff. My issue was with the latest NAM and that it "barely wants to even eek out a dusting".

Also, I fully understand the reasoning behind notching up to a warning due to the high winds and cold associated with the snow. In fact, in the text for the warning, that fact was emphasized. It was stated that this is not going to be a big snow producer, but in association with other elements it will have greater impact.

So with the model output and other tools that were available at the time the warning was issued, a Winter Storm Warning was the right product, and in hind sight, with the healthy accumulations of snow in some areas, it was well verified.

I agree with the earlier post from another member. It was a very good job by the NWS. I have come to know this is not the first time, nor will it be the last! I totally appreciate your service.

Chuck Robertson

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Spring has sprung!

What a crazy way to ring in Spring with near blizzard visibility of about a half a block at times!

Click on them for a bigger version.

 

[David Schuttler]

North Tulsa streets shortly before 1PM , no big deal so far.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFv6vmlg0OI

 

[Jason Bolt]

I'm ten miles west of JLN and it's been snowing steadily since about 10am. Have wet roads, slush in spots. Have about 1/2" of slush on sidewalks and driveways, about 1" of wet snow on grassy areas. It seems to be melting pretty quickly making it slow to accumulate.

 

[Jeff Smith]

Shot a little video in Tulsa as the worst hit this morning:
http://www.youtube.com/user/ExtremeChaseTours#p/a/u/0/iOuwC70HUDQ

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OK Snow

Intense snow band are now moving SW from MO & NW AR snow rates 3" are now developing and moving down the I-44 corridor toward Tulsa.

Reports from extreme eastern OK/AR border up over 12" over night.

 

[David Schuttler]

Curious if thats real heavy snow, sleet or rain moving towards Tulsa.