March 7th - 11th: KS, NE, SD, ND, MN, IA, WI.

[Chris Carter]

May need to add more states to this. But the ECMWF has been pretty consistent with bring a large storm system into the Northern Plains early next week. The GFS has hopped on board with this idea as well, but its track and QPF has been erratic. One thing is for sure, the system will have lots of moisture to work with, cold air to work with, and intense winds. I haven't had a chance to look at the ECMWF yet, but it seems as if the GFS has been slowly moving the track north and the timing is not as long.

One side is that the ECMWF is forecasting a second system on the heels of this one and may put down a decent amount of snow south of the previous storm.

 

[Chris Heater]

It will be interesting to watch to say the least. I just hope we don't get snow out of this cause i'm tired of the stuff. A severe weather outbreak would be nice though!

 

[Mike Smith]

This looks a great deal like March 7, 2009.

 

[Jason Bolt]

This looks a great deal like March 7, 2009.

Care to elaborate Mike?

 

[twarner]

Here is March 7, 2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/090307/index.html

 

[Mike Smith]

Sure, take a look at the surface chart here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/090307/index.html with a strong (999mb) low in SW Kansas.

Now, go to: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_168m.gif This is today's 12Z GFS with a 991mb low over west central Kansas.

They are very similar. Of course, I wouldn't hold my breath six days out.

 

[Steve Sherrod]

march 7th hutch tornado 2009

Mike, my wife and I got a short video of the brief tornado that was reported on march 7th in hutchinson. I still have it, would it be of use to anyone? I can email it. Look forward to the new season.

 

[Chris Carter]

Wow, latest GFS run has shifted the low further south and takes it on a more ENE track across the southern plains, there seems to be little to no cold air available for snow, as most of it will stay in Southern Canada.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Looks like the back side of this system will still be snow. Central-Eastern Kansas looks to see some snow from this event. Iowa should be far enough north to not get much besides maybe some rain in the southern part of the state.

 

[Jason Bolt]

It's crazy we have a thread about possible winter weather, while others are discussing a cold core setup in the same place on the same date. I will be out trying to catch the elusive snownado.

 

[MatthewCarman]

It does look like strong thunderstorms are possible for Oklahoma with this coming system. Looks like Iowa will see some snow on Tuesday with the next system but it is still to early to tell for sure.