Long Range Forecasts

[Brian Press]

Hey All,

What do you guys use for long range forecasts? I am going out from May 3rd to May 8th? Any thought on that time frame?

Thanks,

Brian

 

[David Wolfson]

The GFS is pretty much the only game in town that far out, and anything more than a week is really for general impressions, only. The key to that period IMO is what happens to the blocking Yukon - James Bay acyc-cyc pair the models have been quite consistent in promoting over the next week.

I'd say the GFS has been pretty consistent in the last few days' runs at working to dampen it and assert a much more zonal flow with troughing in the Gulf of Alaska. My guesstimate is you'll see some interesting action on the Caprock, and I wouldn't plan on seeing the Dakotas. FWIW.