Little or no chance for White Christmas

Mar 3, 2004
Mt Prospect, IL
Well, here I am sitting in a warm, humid air mass on Dec 22nd. This reminds me of exactly how this day was last year when I was in Baghdad. Temps in the low 50's and thunderstorms. I had a decent storm blow through here within the last hour. It had a couple CG's and a moderate downburst. Just a second ago, there was a CG within a mile or so of here! Just some weird December weather going on here, and nothing more than a trace of snow possible through Christmas.

Maybe global warming is occurring. There hasn't been a major cold snowy winter here in Chicago for a while. least you get some storms! I personally can't remember what lightning looks like. All I remember about the past few weeks is the ridiculous daytime high temps and the clinging, misting humidity and the full weeks with no sunshine as WAA dominates.

There'll be no white Christmas here for us, either - even though there are "rumours" of it amidst the gaggle. I predict a somewhat gray, overcast, mild winter for central Arkansas. Yippeee.

I have no doubt that global warming is taking place. Whether any of the signs we are noticing are evidence of it or just coincidence is another matter.

All that's left from our Dec 1st snowstorm are a few leftover crusty piles where it had been heaped up really deep.

We've had almost 2" of rain in the last two days, but no snowflakes. Watching the big snow out in the plains was pretty tough knowing we weren't going to get any of it.

We're about out of time to get a white Christmas, but there's still plenty of winter left to get some decent snows...
First of all, Merry Christmas to all out there!

Looks like we may get some late Christmas snow around here. Models have been having a very tough time with this one, with the big factor being how quick the cold air can get in here. With NWS PAH metioning 1-2" from the GFS and even higher amounts from the NAM, may be a little "holiday spirit" in those traveling back home. :p

Take care everyone

I am very happy there is no snow. I hate snow. When I think of snow I think of sitting on the highway nine hours stranded coming home from school like last December. This weather is gorgeous. I would gladly trade in 50 degree weather with rain than, 20 degree weather and snow. But alas since I write this now, I know I just jinxed it and next 4 weeks there will be 35 inches of snow only over my town....
People from Quebec city are going to have their first Green Christmas since weather records are being taken (!!!)

At Montreal we are on our way to our 14th sice 1942.

And icy rain tonight is the only winter type prec. we are getting until the 25th.
I'm not ENSO expert, but I'm reasonably confident that the current weather pattern is relatively typical of El Nino winters, in that the US/Canada border states are warm and relatively dry. In addition, the southern (jet) stream has become more active the past month, which is also relatively common during El Nino winters (yielding higher-than-average precipitation in the southeastern US).

Interestingly, this year was the latest on record that the Twin Cities (Minneapolis, specifically, I suppose) received at least 0.5" of snow after July 1st. The previous record was December 20th, surpassed by 1 day this year (Dec 21st 2006, when 1.0" of snow fell, bringing the season total to 1.3"). Up until yesterday, only 0.3" of snow had falled at KMSP. Average snowfall through Dec 21st is 16.9". (I looked for the PNS or SPS which contained the previous record info, but I can't find it anymore).
If we are in an El Nino pattern..most of the typical effects on the weather in the U.S. appear to not be there.

Case in point:

"But, on average, most El Ninos are correlated with:
1. Wet and stormy weather in Southern California.
2. Dry and warm weather in the Pacific Northwest.
3. Wet and cool weather from Texas eastward to the southeastern part of the U.S.
4. Warmer-than-normal weather from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Taken one at a time, from Nov. 1 to now:
1. This is a complete bust so far. There has been very little rain in So Cal....only 30 percent of normal in Los Angeles and 37 percent of normal in San Diego.
2. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Rainfall in Seattle is 200 percent of normal and in Portland it is 160 percent of normal.
3. This isn't working out either. Dallas is 2.6 degrees above normal with only 76 % of precipitation....San Antonio and Houston's numbers are.....+3.2 degrees/25% and +1.9 degrees/25 percent respectively. Atlanta is 1.5 degrees above normal and has had only 73 percent of normal rainfall.
4. This one is working out. Great Falls, Pierre, Chicago, Detroit, Boston and New York are all running warmer than normal."
Maybe global warming is occurring. There hasn't been a major cold snowy winter here in Chicago for a while.

Same here in Iowa David, completely a brown or green Christmas so far. After looking at the NAM this morning we might have a chance for some precip on Christmas but the GFS has it way up north in MN, so it appears the local NWS office has went with 20% chance due to the disagreement.
Blazing 35,6°F outside and green Christmas are likely here. However, latest weather forecasts call for cooling at the Christmas Eve. Wondering if El Nino is causing this abnormal heat in my area?
Yes, for my region (extreme east Tennessee) there was a FCST for snow, distinctly a 70% chance, and a 30% chance for rain, as the temperature gradient is fluctuating greatly here, bordering on that day for either freezing, or 40's. Now, the positive schedule and outlook in my opinion and based on things -- wet precipitation for this day, generally in the afternoon.
At least most of you live in a place where a white Christmas is even possible. I hate living in FL! We can't even rely on mother nature to provide us with some cool air. We have our A/C on as I speak. Yesterday it was about 65 with heavy rain. What a wonderful Christmas! We were even thinking of taking a short trip north to see snow the week after Christmas, but it's forecast to be so far north, I don't even know if it's worth it. Anyway, Merry Christmas to all, whether or not you get a white Christmas!
Possible flurries here for Norman, so it can go anywhere from all rain to maybe flurries to we'll get dumped on. I'll be happy to just see some flakes fly.
Like Marc, I do miss the snow. The only time I remember snow here at Christmas was 1989. We got a light dusting - a truly freakish event for this area! I remember counting abandoned cars on I-75 northbound from here to Lake City (about 45 miles) on Christmas day - 89 of them, none in the southbound lanes! No, typical Floridians can't drive on snow or ice, even a light dusting.

Merry Christmas, Hanukkah, Holidays, etc!
And Happy New Year to all!
Anyone down south up for a Christmas Day chase? Looks like supercell and tornado potential down in Florida today with any storms that stay discrete.

Might be a dusting here in Chicago today, perhaps even enough minor accumulation to count for a late white Christmas.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS to everyone on ST!
I know this belongs in REPORTS or NOW, but I don't really have details or any links yet, and I thought it might be appropriate here as so many are looking for a white Christmas.

Apparently, tornados did home damage in the Lake City, Daytona Beach, and Tampa areas today. Let's remember those families as they struggle to celebrate a difficult Christmas day.
Last edited by a moderator:
There is probably no snow on the ground within at least a couple hundred miles of where I am at (Western Arkansas) EXCEPT Mt. Magazine (elevation 2753) where over 4 inches of snow fell this morning. I would be up there having fun but I have to work... but I thought I would share so if anyones in the area you should go up there!

Heres live weather data. The skycam picture at the bottom changes every few minutes (i have seen one with snow).