Legislation to Create a National Disaster Review Board

Posting a tweet doesn't make something true.
Wow. I hardly have words for that comment.

I have spent hours and hours and hours researching these items pertaining to Helene's aftermath before posting them. My wife is very unhappy with me because of the amount of time I am spending and, she believes, putting too much stress on myself. Kathleen and I have also written large checks to put our money where our mouths are.

I used to have a favorable opinion about FEMA. That is, until I did extensive research, including a trip to MSY, to research my book Warnings. I learned that FEMA's #1 goal after a disaster is attaining favorable publicity about FEMA -- and not helping victims.

Just yesterday, at lunch, a meteorologist friend of mine said he was reading this book: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Deluge-Hurricane-Katrina-Mississippi/dp/0061148490 and that he had no idea how awful FEMA was. FEMA's modus operandi continued with Sandy, the Maui Wildfire, etc., etc. etc.

So, if you wish to fool yourself into believing what FEMA says about itself based on a single article, it is a free country and you may do so. But, it is not anywhere close to the reality.
 

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So, if you wish to fool yourself into believing what FEMA says about itself based on a single article, it is a free country and you may do so. But, it is not anywhere close to the reality.

I am not fooling myself, nor do I believe FEMA is flawless (as I said earlier).

However, you shared a post recently which was not entirely accurate and I did a deep dive into it, and while I do not doubt you have done research (and should be commended for donating to good causes) you haven't provided any evidence aside from a screenshot of a tweet, so what else can we go on to judge the statements?

I said recently I was going to stop doing these posts and I will do so again, so will respectfully leave this alone. Happy to chat in private, but should keep my posts to weather.
 
[where] else can we go on to judge the statements?

Do some research on your own using the independent professional reporters who are actually there as sources! Follow them on Twitter.


My Comments
A local newspaper that does nothing but recycle a FEMA press release has no more credibility to me than a paper halfway across the nation that does the same.

Even FEMA admits they have placed just 14 trailers (even though they have hundreds in their inventory). You don't have to believe me. A media clipping is below. 500 people approved. 14 served. Pitiful.

As to the people in tents, all FEMA has to do is place a trailer on their property. Even if it does not have electricity.

Or -- better still -- stop blocking the placement of the Amish's mini-homes they have constructed. As to the latter, here is the non-denial denial: MSN Note that he says they have not forcibly evicted people from those structures. He does not deny people have been evicted nor does he deny have ruled the structures cannot be occupied to begin with. Amish in Pennsylvania live fine in homes year 'round without electricity. There's no reason Helene victims can't live in them temporarily ... and, if nothing else, it is a hell of a lot better than a tent in winter with no place to go to the bathroom (which the homes have).

There is another today tweet from a woman saying her insurance company wrote off her home (first hand info) that goes along with at least a dozen first hand reports saying exactly the same thing. The usual reaction is, Take 'em to court! and usually, they could. But since FEMA isn't doing much of anything, they are desperate. No FEMA. No insurance. The "land grab" you object to. They don't know where the next meal will come from nor do they know how long they will have to rent port-a-potties to use the facilities! So, they don't have the luxury of taking insurance companies to court -- especially when their children have been taken away and are fighting the removal in a courthouse two hours away.

Finally, I have been relying on Matt (above) and many others who do not wish for me to use their names because they are worried about what their employers might say. 100% of the people I have relied on have been there, recently, in person. This includes such disparate groups as Fox News, a (liberal) TV station out of Seattle, The Weather Channel and others.

I have also spent time looking a charities' web pages, using Charity Navigator to see if the charity is reputable and -- yet again -- asking people there, "Have you seen Charity X on the ground, doing good? Should I recommend them to my readers." You cannot believe how time consuming all of this is! I'm disappointed in the Salvation Army that got off the a promising start but that seems to have dissipated. No one I've spoken with has seen them outside of the immediate Asheville area. So, I have stopped recommending them.

Addition: This is from an Asheville TV station. Please note that FEMA isn't even mentioned as part of the solution.


NEW TOPIC: Here's what I have been doing today: https://fox4kc.com/news/push-to-rebuild-after-ruskin-heights-tornado-memorial-damaged/ More related to tornadoes and weather science history.
 

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I have also spent time looking a charities' web pages, using Charity Navigator to see if the charity is reputable and -- yet again -- asking people there, "Have you seen Charity X on the ground, doing good? Should I recommend them to my readers." You cannot believe how time consuming all of this is! I'm disappointed in the Salvation Army that got off the a promising start but that seems to have dissipated. No one I've spoken with has seen them outside of the immediate Asheville area. So, I have stopped recommending them.

NEW TOPIC: Here's what I have been doing today: https://fox4kc.com/news/push-to-rebuild-after-ruskin-heights-tornado-memorial-damaged/ More related to tornadoes and weather science history.
Just curious--what has your research revealed about Samaritan's Purse? My understanding is that were on the ground with a day or two of the disaster and are now taking applications to rebuild homes at reduced cost or even free depending on the circumstances.


Disappointing news about the Salvation Army.
 
I've posted a new piece on my blog about the continuing catastrophe in the southern Appalachians. https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2024/11/in-emergency-one-redneck-is-worth-ten.html

I'm highlighting this because there is a video that explains -- by people who have experienced it first hand -- that government is in the way. I have the specific name of one of the villains with evidence against her but I used it only to validate the information for me personally. I have not posted her name or identifying info. I have no reason for her to personally take the blame as there are plenty of villains. There is also a 20 minute video (yes, I have watched) that lays out how government is blocking the relief efforts.

If we had a National Disaster Review Board we would know about these problems and, almost certainly, they would get solved in short order because of the political price miscreants would have to pay. When the new Congress convenes in January please write a letter and urge them to move on this issue.
 
Something I experienced personally...FEMA placed several dozen trailers on the campus of the University of New Orleans (UNO) for Spring 2006 after Fall 2005's Hurricane Katrina. The idea seemed reasonable to lure people back to the school.
Each of these trailers was worth ~ 30K dollars at the time. Then, UNO found out that it was going to cost an additional ~ $30K to hook up each one w/ utilities! So, FEMA came back and took the trailers away to park them in storage.
As an aside, even though word has it that trailers give off formaldehyde fumes like some building materials do, the short-term benefits of using them overshadow the longer term risks.
 
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Some of you may have seen Dr. Ryan Maue's editorial in Sunday's New York Times regarding the future of NOAA/NWS. Ryan believes the problems can be solved with incremental adjustments. As you know, I -- and Dr. Cliff Mass in a piece he published yesterday -- disagree. Below you will find the three-part series on my blog regarding NOAA, NWS, and (in part 3) NDRB. I also have link to Cliff's piece.

Part I: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part I

Part II: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part II

Part III: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part III

Dr. Cliff Mass published a piece yesterday regarding the future of NOAA/NWS and he agrees with me that a divorce is necessary: Make American Weather Prediction Great Again!

Politically, it would have been better if all of this had come up around February first once the new Congress was sworn in and organized. However, since most of Congress was reelected, it would be very helpful if you would go to your congresspersons' web sites and email your thoughts (it is quite easy). If you wish to include any of my links, you have my permission to do so.

Mike
 
Some of you may have seen Dr. Ryan Maue's editorial in Sunday's New York Times regarding the future of NOAA/NWS. Ryan believes the problems can be solved with incremental adjustments. As you know, I -- and Dr. Cliff Mass in a piece he published yesterday -- disagree. Below you will find the three-part series on my blog regarding NOAA, NWS, and (in part 3) NDRB. I also have link to Cliff's piece.

Part I: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part I

Part II: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part II

Part III: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part III

Dr. Cliff Mass published a piece yesterday regarding the future of NOAA/NWS and he agrees with me that a divorce is necessary: Make American Weather Prediction Great Again!

Politically, it would have been better if all of this had come up around February first once the new Congress was sworn in and organized. However, since most of Congress was reelected, it would be very helpful if you would go to your congresspersons' web sites and email your thoughts (it is quite easy). If you wish to include any of my links, you have my permission to do so.

Mike
I’d be interested in a discussion of Mass’s statement, “Current U.S. weather prediction models have major flaws and there is no rational, comprehensive program to perfect them.”

This is quite an indictment.
 
I’d be interested in a discussion of Mass’s statement, “Current U.S. weather prediction models have major flaws and there is no rational, comprehensive program to perfect them.”
Yes, it is, and it is a huge issue because:
  • National security for military purposes.
  • Storm and extreme weather forecasting -- just look at the southern Appalachians as an example of when the threat is recognized by the NWS later than it should have been. Many people who died in the flooding could have been saved.
  • Misallocation of resources: we have a rapidly growing $36 trillion deficit. Can we really afford to have seven groups working on modeling and none of them coming close to succeeding? As Cliff mentioned, some/many at NOAA are more interested in turf battles than progress.
That is why I have come to the conclusion that divorcing weather from NOAA is essential. With current civil service laws, incremental changes won't come close to fixing the problem and it will take far too long. Time for a National Disaster Review Board!
 

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Yes, it is, and it is a huge issue because:
  • National security for military purposes.
  • Storm and extreme weather forecasting -- just look at the southern Appalachians as an example of when the threat is recognized by the NWS later than it should have been. Many people who died in the flooding could have been saved.
  • Misallocation of resources: we have a rapidly growing $36 trillion deficit. Can we really afford to have seven groups working on modeling and none of them coming close to succeeding? As Cliff mentioned, some/many at NOAA are more interested in turf battles than progress.
That is why I have come to the conclusion that divorcing weather from NOAA is essential. With current civil service laws, incremental changes won't come close to fixing the problem and it will take far too long. Time for a National Disaster Review Board!
Mike--I am hoping for a discussion of what are the known issues with the models that would elicit such a comment from Mass. Maybe that should be a new topic, but I want to keep the level of discussion technical because I would like forum members who may work for NOAA et. al. to feel free to contribute.

As for the NDRB, I don't see that body having much to do with improving models except in an advisory role. The way I see it, the authority to direct the kind of model changes Mass seems to be recommending ultimately rests with the President. That authority may be delegated through a Cabinet Secretary to an Agency Head to Program Directors and down the chain of command, but for a NDRB to be able to force changes in models you will essentially have to give it Presidential Authority.

Think about it--the chain of command--and ask yourself who can make X do Y. I think the only person who can force model improvements is the person who can fire everyone who refuses.
 
Mike--I am hoping for a discussion of what are the known issues with the models that would elicit such a comment from Mass. Maybe that should be a new topic, but I want to keep the level of discussion technical because I would like forum members who may work for NOAA et. al. to feel free to contribute.
Cliff has written about this topic a number of times. Here is another recent post of his: The Unnecessary Decline of U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction Search his blog to find more.


 
Mike Smith said:
Even FEMA admits they have placed just 14 trailers (even though they have hundreds in their inventory). You don't have to believe me. A media clipping is below. 500 people approved. 14 served. Pitiful.

As to the people in tents, all FEMA has to do is place a trailer on their property. Even if it does not have electricity.
I do remember seeing or reading news reports that FEMA hadn't placed many trailers even though they have plenty sitting unused. I don't now remember if any real reason was given though. But that said......

On this storm's aftermath I must say that I haven't paid much attention to the goings on & am pretty much out out of touch with what all happened (other than the general thing of FEMA basically botched another one)
...it got to the point in Oct where I couldn't stand to turn my TV on & watch the evening news - because the political ads here were so bad - then with the results of the results of the election (my opinion, worst news I've ever heard. I don't want to talk or hear about it) I mostly avoided turning on TV news for first half of Nov. (and those times I did put the TV on I half fell asleep & missed most of what the news said anyway) .lol. probably missed some important stuff, but also missed allot of crap.
I don't do online news, and don't do facebook/twitter/etc.

One thing I would question in relation to the trailers in particular is: are these "regular neighborhoods" with paved roads/easy access where large trucks delivering trailers can easily make it through and place the trailer on the property/yard where houses had been? ... Or are we talking very rural areas with narrow winding dirt roads where it would be difficult for a large truck/trailer to get through.

Mike Smith said:
Cliff has written about this topic a number of times. Here is another recent post of his: The Unnecessary Decline of U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction
This one was an interesting read.
 
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