Leap Year Severe

[Evan Bookbinder]

That's my new slogan.

Don't want to jump the gun just yet, but boy do conditions look increasingly favorable for a rare Feb 29th event somewhere in the Plains (pick your favorite model). (Don't think moisture will return in time for a front range event on Saturday).

A strinkingly similar synoptic setup to last week except this time around the surface ridge is well to the east and there's much stronger/prolonged GOM influx (even better as the models continue to trend slower and deeper with this system). Moisture was certainly the main limiting factor preventing the 19th from being a great chase day. Unfortunately, I have to work the day shift Sunday, but would likely be around for any nowcast support in the late afternoon/evening provided the potential event doesn't occur locally.

Comments? Opinions?

Evan

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I looked at the 0z GFS earlier this morning for the 0z 29 forecast (Saturday evening), and I was very impressed at the tremendous shear / wind profile progged to be over the southern plains during that time! I mean, much of OK has SE surface winds, 40kt SSW 850mb, 50-60kt SW 500mb, and is on the nose of a 110kt jet cruising northeastward out of Texas. I'm only afraid that, again, moisture will be lacking. The current system tracking along the Gulf coast will flush most of the nice, juicy air well out of the Gulf. Granted there will likely be some modification over the Gulf, but I think we may be a couple of systems too early in the season still... Hoping that we can get some better Tds up here, however!!

Jeff