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Lake Effect Thundershowers & Long Range Outlook

Interesting weather going on here in NY State right now. After 8 days of rain totalling as much as 12-16 inches in some areas nearby to Albany, a cold FROPA has moved through FINALLY!!! Temperatures have dropped from the upper 50's to low 50's and winds have shifted to the NW and increased. We are seeing Lake Effect Thundershowers in many areas downwind of Lake Ontario. Very strange to see this. I attribute this to a conditionally unstable atmosphere/strong dynamics and a very warm water temperature.

Anyone see the latest NWS Winter Outlook. High chance of well above normal temps. in the mid sections of the country with normal temps. on both coasts. I'm thinking very cold in the Northeast and midwest...this pattern has got to break soon. Any other thoughts?
Last winter, NOAA had the Great Lakes slightly warmer than average, with slightly lower than normal precipitation... I don't know about you, but 210% above our yearly average snowfall doesn't constitute drier than normal - well, I guess that's why they use percentages anyway.
I hope their predictions turn out to be correct...I can do without the ice and snow. Honestly, I think we'll have some ugly weather in this area come the January-February time frame. That's when some of our worse ice storms hit.