Lake-Effect for South Bend 1-11-11?

[NCurtis]

I have a quick question. I live in the South Bend, Indiana area and we're currently under a Lake-Effect snow watch starting tonight through Thursday at 7 A.M. Areas to the West of me are under the Warning. The National Weather Service says there is going to be a Northerly wind and that's why we're not forecasted for a big snow amount for tonight and that it will all go West. But I've been looking at the RUC and NAM models and they keep showing the winds being more North Westerly than just Northerly. Winter weather isn't my strong point, especially lake-effect, so does anyone else have some insight on what they think will happen tonight. Thanks in advance!

 

[rdale]

Good questions... I would suggest reading the AFD discussion (AFDIWX) as it explains specifically why SBN is in a watch. The areas to your west are in a better fetch for a long-lived band. SBN needs winds more WNW than N which won't take place for another 24 hours give or take, and as the event starts to wind down, so the potential isn't quite as high (at this point) to reach warning criteria there.