Jeanne and Ivan Merger

[Tony Laubach]

I just had a thought.. in reading the discussion on Jeanne from NHC, I had this thought..

Ivan is expected to kind of stall out over the Southeastern United States, all while Jeanne makes her way in the general direction.

Say the remnants of Ivan stick around long enough, and Jeanne works her way into the same vicinity of where Ivan's remains are dumping; the results of such a thing would probably be beyond catastrophic in terms of flooding.

Do you think its possible for this scenario to play out? I know Jeanne has a long ways to go, and Ivan would likely have to stall out and pretty well sit, but could these systems merge as remnants of their former selves; and what are the odds of this actually occuring over land? Or, would the steering currents keep Jeanne well away from Ivan?

Got me thinking.. thought I'd get a few chimes from everyone...

 

[B Ozanne]

I heard some people talking about that. I suppose its possible, but it wouldn't be a pretty "looking" storm.

Looking at some models thoug, Jeanne makes a trek north then retrogrades back south towards the end of the model run.

 

[Geoff Boyle]

I guess it would really depends on how long Ivan holds out over land. I don't think there will be much of Ivan left after Jeanne makes it's way through. Though, that is based on the fact it will take at least a week before Jeanne shows up in the states. I could be wrong.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The problem I see is this -- both storms are rotating cyclonically... This means there is southwest winds on the southeast part of the storm. Now, suppose Jeanne approaches from the southeast... the northwest part of Jeanne would be characterized by winds from the northeast. So, when these two interact, you'd have to exactly-opposing wind fields (southwest winds from Ivan and northeast winds from Jeanne)... I'm sure they'd still merge, since there have been similar cyclone mergers noted in tornadoes, supercell mergers, etc, but I'd be interested to see how the winds would repond in the area of merger (when their winds fields first interact)... Whatever the case, it'd be catastrophic squared.

 

[Thomas Loades]

Rather than a merger, there is always the potential that Jeanne and Ivan could start up the "Fujiwara Effect" — like so —
[Broken External Image]:http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/images/wea00481.jpg — where they start rotating around each other; although Jeanne might be too small for this to work right. Nonetheless, even if it only just starts, the effect may be enough to swing Ivan back over the ocean sooner, and if it's meant to be heading SE as the maps indicate, then it could reintensify while it still has semi-organized structure to be revitalized and, potentially, pose a threat again (to the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic states).

 

[Jeff Wear]

If I remember right the Fujiwara effect works only if the two cyclones are of equal strength. Otherwise the stronger cyclone will absorb the weaker one. I seem to remember this happening off the east coast sometime in the mid 90s when a tropical storm rotated around a hurricane before getting swallowed up by it.

 

[Thomas Loades]

I wonder, if that were to happen here, which one would get absorbed? Of course Ivan is the weaker (though not by too much), but it's a lot larger than Jeanne — so Ivan might smother Jeanne.

 

[Shane Adams]

If I remember right the Fujiwara effect works only if the two cyclones are of equal strength. Otherwise the stronger cyclone will absorb the weaker one. I seem to remember this happening off the east coast sometime in the mid 90s when a tropical storm rotated around a hurricane before getting swallowed up by it.

I've noticed the term "Fujiwara" used a few times this year to apparently describe tornadoes that rotate around each other. I've been seeing satellite tornadoes in videos for years but never heard "Fujiwara" until 2004........why is this word suddenly common?

 

[mikegeukes]

Fujiwara Effect named after Sakuhei Fujiwara. a meterologist
from Japan back in 1921, he wrote a paper on the interactions
of two tropical cyclones rotating around each other.

AMS Definition:
Fujiwhara effect—The tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones
to rotate cyclonically about each other as a result of their circulations' mutual advection.

Mike

 

[Thomas Loades]

Probably won't happen anymore now. I can't even see Ivan on the same satellite image as Jeanne. — Unless Karl decides to get in on the act . . .