Is this really May???

[bill mudd]

Yea here in California this year we were stunned by the amount of warnings and touchdowns and massive amounts of rain - but I NEVER would have thought we might outdo OKlahoma in the tornado department - now thats hard to believe!
I do have a gut feeling we might see an eventual breakout - when and where we LEAST expect it - probably on a monday when no ones lookin!
I am glad that there has been no great loss of life or property......

 

[Mike Johnson]

There is a always the chance June will change into a late
May pattern. Anything is possible.

Mike

 

[Mike Johnston]

Mike Johnson wrote:

After a great year everyone thinks the following year is going to be great. It does not work that way!

True, the correlation of frequency from one year to the next is weak. If we go back to our 1950-2004 statistics for # May tornadoes in the state of Oklahoma, and segregate seasons into "up years" (above the mean) and "down years" (below the mean), we find that that the predictive value of any given year for the following season is negligible. The correlation co-efficient is 0.13, where 1.0 is perfect correlation, and -1.0 is perfect negative correlation. Now, even though it is weak, it is positive meaning there have been slightly more "streaks" than alternating up-down-up-down patterns.

Prior to the high frequency streak from 1997-1999, you have to go back to the period 1959-1962 to find a longer streak of above-average years. The longest streak of below-average years? 1969 through 1976, eight years in a row.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I think a lot of people are missing that June puts out as many or more than May in many years. There is still a slight possibility Monday or Tuesday could turn out to be a pretty good chase day. Also if you check out the peak tornado days the initial peak is May 18th, but June 8th has a second peak and that is still two weeks away. I have not lost hope yet, but like I said the the year has already been good for me just haven't spent a lot of time and money in the plains.


Take the good with the bad.

 

[Derek Lee]

Just be happy you aren't where I am..

Calling for a high of 57F. Although, and surprisingly, Environment Canada is calling for a good severe weather year. Even at our local airforce base, on there billboard they put "Beware, Severe Summer Weather Season Approaching!" which is a first. :shock:

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Well who would have predicted that we would be in late May and the polar vortex would still be anchored over the Great lakes. I just looked at the 00z 27th GFS and it still looks cold and dry for the plains all the way into mid June. I hope this is one time the GFS is way out in left field. Our neighborhood swimming pool opens tomorrow and highs this weekend are forecast to only be in the upper 60's here in Omaha our normal high is around 80. I would perfer a death ridge to this polar vortex stuff, at least with a death ridge I could spend a little time at the pool.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I have a pretty good feeling nobody is going to remember how slow May was after this Friday!!!!

 

[Justin Walker]

Originally posted by Brandon Clement
I have a pretty good feeling nobody is going to remember how slow May was after this Friday!!!!

:wink:

 

[bill mudd]

Does anyone see a fault in this weekends outlook?(6/3 6/4).... Im seeing more optimism on this weekend than anything else for some time
target Omaha on Friday? Desmones on Saturday?